All Commodities articles – Page 9
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White papersSpectrum, Q1 2022: The Great Rotation 2.0
Slower growth rates, tighter labour markets, higher inflation and normalising monetary policies provides the classic backdrop to a great rotation from growth to value stocks, as well as a change in fixed income strategy.
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White papersThe Fog of War Clouds Economic Outlooks
The war in Ukraine continues to dominate market moves, leading to volatility in risk assets, and the safe haven bid is still in focus amid a stronger U.S. dollar and higher precious metal prices. Commodities are soaring, with BBG Commodity Index on track for the biggest gain since 1960.
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White papersShifts & Narratives #14 - Russia conflict marks a further step in the road back to the ‘70s
In recent history, geopolitical crises have tended to be short-lived and after an initial sell-off they provide buying opportunities for investors. It’s tempting to see a similar pattern in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which would explain why markets have been on a roller-coaster, with a fast recovery expected for any perceived positive development, after the initial negative shock when Russia launched its unexpected large scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February.
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White papersSpecial Ukraine
The invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops has caught Europe off guard, reminding it of the darkest hours before the Second World War. NATO countries and European leaders have so far ruled out direct military confrontation because of the risk of escalation between nuclear powers.
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White papersGauging the impact of the Russia/Ukraine conflict on EM debt
The events that are unfolding in Ukraine are deeply upsetting and one cannot help but be affected by what we are reading and seeing in the news. Investing in the midst of a conflict can be difficult and bring out heightened emotions. In the context of these heightened emotions, it is helpful to stand back and assess the situation.
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White papers‘Greenflation’ – Navigating the climate policy, oil price and inflation nexus
Given the relationship between climate policies, oil prices and inflation and the difficulties in managing inflation through interest rate policy, it is worth taking a closer look at the dynamics involved. How might climate policies, oil prices and inflation evolve given the outlook for oil? To what extent are oil prices and consumer price inflation actually linked?
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White papersRussia/Ukraine conflict: A sustained market impact?
After weeks of build-up and intelligence warnings, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, unleashing what may end up being the largest European conflict since World War II. The United States, Europe and NATO allies have condemned the move and responded with economic sanctions.
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White papersAs COVID Cases Fade, Services Ready for Upgrade
January U.S. retail sales surprised to the upside, rising 3.8% M/M. The Omicron wave temporarily halted the shift in consumer spending from goods to services, as at-home sectors gained. Meanwhile, restaurant sales fell for a second-consecutive month.
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White papersWeight to the Plate: Tracking EM Food Inflation
Rising food prices have added more pressure to headline inflation in emerging markets (EM), increasing steadily throughout 2021. As a result, central banks there have not had the leeway to wait to tighten policy the way the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have.
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White papersTop ESG equities show their resilience in 2021
Coming out of a volatile 2020, the sharp rise in inflation and the potential for rising rates were two of the key market drivers during 2021 – and certainly have been for the beginning of 2022. This backdrop does not look set to alter dramatically, at least in the near term.
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White papersEuropean equity market: the great value rotation and the dividend appeal
January 2022 was a record month for European value equity, in terms of its outperformance vs. growth. The market’s reassessment of central banks’ actions after their hawkish turn has driven real yields higher and benefitted value stocks, while growth sectors such as technology, which are more sensitive to interest rates duration, have suffered.
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White papersInflation is starting to burn - Strategies to protect portfolios from inflation risk
Persistent inflation, above pre crisis levels, except for China.
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White papersSupply Chain Strain in Commodities
Cyclical commodity prices have surged amidst pressure from multiple fronts. While COVID has certainly exacerbated the typical mismatch between the timing of supply and the growth in demand, the deviation has been further strained by environmental considerations that have limited supply development.
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White papersAre Markets Signaling a Slowdown?
We see no sign of impending recession in calm credit markets, and in our view the flattening Treasury curve likely has more to do with the market’s failure to recognize growing structural inflationary forces.
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White papersRussia-Ukraine tensions: geopolitical risk adds volatility to risk assets
Geopolitical dimension of the crisis: tensions stand at their highest point in years, after Moscow deployed 100,000 troops to its border with the Ukraine’s Donbas region. The geopolitical risk between Russia and the West remains deadlocked since Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula and the consequent Western sanctions to Russia.
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White papers1Q: 2022 Strategic Investment Outlook: Four Strategic Allocation Issues for Asset Owners in 2022
Four strategic issues—from evolving inflation drivers to a reassessment of real-return prospects and liquidity risks for equities—could have far-reaching implications for strategic asset allocations in the coming year. The action points offered in this note include both changes to portfolio structure and potential alterations in approach.
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White papersKazakhstan: low impact for asset prices, but a wakeup call for geopolitical risk
On 2 January, protests began in western Kazakhstan triggered by a sharp rise in fuel costs, but reflecting broader political discontent. The almost immediate response from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO, a Russian version of NATO) shows the close relationship between the Russian and Kazakhstan governments.
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White papersLatAm’s political pendulum takes a hard swing to the left in 2021
2021 Covid surging in 1H and inflation swelling in 2H have contributed to the political pendulum swinging hard left in LatAm. More structurally, the commodity super cycle unwind mid last decade and the political discontent likely set the entire shift in motion. Against the general trend, some elections cycles moved in the other direction as well.
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White papersThe Decarbonizarion Challenge & Path Toward Green Steel
The global steel industry is presented with a number of challenges to reduce its carbon footprint, and this is especially true in emerging markets.
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White papersLooking into 2022 with Federated Hermes
Global markets have seen significant volatility in 2021 driven by price inflation, expectations for interest rates, commodities shortages and covid-19 variants.
