All Commodities articles – Page 12
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White papersA U.S.-China Trade Deal Looms While Oil Prices Boomerang
Tensions are high around the world, global growth is low, while oil prices boomerang amidst the Iran clash.
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White papersTrade is not the only drag on growth
Entering 2019, our main expectations were for slower growth, easier monetary policy globally and continuing pressure on bond yields. At a high level, that is how the year played out. But the path to those outcomes has at times surprised us.
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White papersTrade war clouds the outlook
The effects of the US’s multiple confrontations with allies and adversaries over its terms of trade with the rest of the world have overshadowed commodity markets throughout 2019. At the beginning of this year we anticipated relatively swift progress towards a trade deal between the US and China. But as the year progressed it became clear that this confrontation would last much longer than we had initially expected. We now believe it will continue beyond the US presidential election late next year, irrespective of which candidate wins.
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White papersDespite All The Focus on Trade, Inflation Remains Low
U.S. trade trouble continues with a “Phase One Deal” less than imminent, the IEA asserts how U.S. shale-oil production will reshape global energy markets and don’t hold your breath on a December Fed rate cut.
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White papersWells, Wires, and Wheels - EROCI and the tough road ahead for oil
Oil needs long-term break-evens of $10-$20/bbl to remain competitive in mobility. In this report we introduce the concept of the Energy Return on Capital Invested (EROCI), focusing on the energy return on a $100bn outlay on oil and renewables where the energy is being used specifically to power cars and other light-duty vehicles (LDVs). For a given capital outlay on oil and renewables, how much useful energy at the wheels do we get?
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White papersInfrastructure Debt: Steady Activity, Lingering Macro Doubts
Despite the expected seasonal summer slowdown, infrastructure debt financing deals remained steady overall in the third quarter of 2019—with strong activity in the U.S. and Canada, and slightly slowing activity in Europe, with a cautious eye toward Brexit.
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White papersSeptember Macro Dashboard
Global leading indicators ticked up slightly in August, but remain in contraction territory. While global growth has slowed, risks are tilted to the downside. The mounting toll of higher trade costs, decreased investment and dwindling confidence are weighing on growth.
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White papersCounting the business cost of deforestation
The risk of brand damage and consumer boycotts from poor environmental corporate practice has never been higher. Some companies are changing their ways, others could do more.
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Asset Manager NewsECB Easing and Trade Deescalation Boost Markets
The three things you need to know this week: More signs are pointing to U.S.-China trade war de-escalation, ECB launches new stimulus and the PBOC cuts required reserve ratios.
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White papersThree Ways to Manage Liquidity Risk in Bond Markets
Liquidity risk has grabbed headlines recently after several high-profile funds imploded. The hunt is on to find ways to manage liquidity risk and protect portfolios against further setbacks—but not all investors will be up to the task.
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White papersRising U.S. farm debt and the implications for farmland investors
Three consecutive years of disappointing commodity prices has led to farmer incomes decreasing year after year. Low prices for soybeans, corn, milk and beef have reduced the level of farm income and 2019 is not expected to provide a deviation from this trend.
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White papersNuveen knows: alternatives
Beyond diversification: a geographical focus on farmland and real estate
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White papersWill trade tensions reshape the world order?
The protectionist wave will almost certainly have a chilling effect on the global economy. But trade growth was slowing well before the US-China spat. In the latest Ahead of the Curve, we assess whether the tariff war is disruptive or merely accelerating trends already underway. And will we find opportunities in this fragmented global system, or only challenges?
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White papersFlashforward: Drawing Parallels With 1999/2000
Investors in the UK and overseas are adopting extreme positioning in their hunt for defensive growth. In doing so the elastic has become very stretched and a sharp rotation could be overdue. This market dynamic is reminiscent of 1999/2000 whereby ‘old economy’ stocks are discarded in favour of ‘new economy’ ones.
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White papersIs a New Front About to Open in the US-China Trade War?
Financial markets are focused on the ongoing trade war between the US and China—which goods and services are in play and what measures are being taken or threatened in each case. But the trade conflict could spill over into currency markets—and that’s a risk that bears watching.
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White papersWhat We Know, What We Don’t Know, What We Think
It’s not even clear that central banks themselves understand what’s going on. Lower unemployment doesn’t seem to nudge inflation higher, as it once did. Commodity prices may, but not reliably.
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White papersA Man, A Plan, A Canal – A Trade War
Trade flows, like water, ultimately find their path.
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White papersBack to basics: a contrarian look at cyclicals in credit markets
The US bull run is the country’s longest on record. But we are in the latter stage of the global macroeconomic cycle and warning lights are flashing. We remain focused on corporate fundamentals, asking which high-quality cyclicals could successfully weather a slowdown.
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White papersIndian elections: political continuity is positive but reform is what matters most
Prime Minister Modi led the NDA to a sweeping victory, with a full majority in Parliament and therefore significant political capital. There was some apprehension in the market ahead of the election and a clear majority will certainly soothe nerves.
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White papers
Evaluating the Effects of China’s Pork Crisis
African swine fever is ravaging China’s pork supply and having a global impact on protein prices. For equity investors, the crisis serves as a reminder that even amid trade-war uncertainty, research into domestic trends can help investors access the country’s vast stock market.
