All Commodities articles – Page 14
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White papersWill trade tensions reshape the world order?
The protectionist wave will almost certainly have a chilling effect on the global economy. But trade growth was slowing well before the US-China spat. In the latest Ahead of the Curve, we assess whether the tariff war is disruptive or merely accelerating trends already underway. And will we find opportunities in this fragmented global system, or only challenges?
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White papersFlashforward: Drawing Parallels With 1999/2000
Investors in the UK and overseas are adopting extreme positioning in their hunt for defensive growth. In doing so the elastic has become very stretched and a sharp rotation could be overdue. This market dynamic is reminiscent of 1999/2000 whereby ‘old economy’ stocks are discarded in favour of ‘new economy’ ones.
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White papersIs a New Front About to Open in the US-China Trade War?
Financial markets are focused on the ongoing trade war between the US and China—which goods and services are in play and what measures are being taken or threatened in each case. But the trade conflict could spill over into currency markets—and that’s a risk that bears watching.
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White papersWhat We Know, What We Don’t Know, What We Think
It’s not even clear that central banks themselves understand what’s going on. Lower unemployment doesn’t seem to nudge inflation higher, as it once did. Commodity prices may, but not reliably.
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White papersA Man, A Plan, A Canal – A Trade War
Trade flows, like water, ultimately find their path.
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White papersBack to basics: a contrarian look at cyclicals in credit markets
The US bull run is the country’s longest on record. But we are in the latter stage of the global macroeconomic cycle and warning lights are flashing. We remain focused on corporate fundamentals, asking which high-quality cyclicals could successfully weather a slowdown.
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White papersTrade War: The Second Front
Head of Equities covers potential tariffs on Mexico and their implications.
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White papersIndian elections: political continuity is positive but reform is what matters most
Prime Minister Modi led the NDA to a sweeping victory, with a full majority in Parliament and therefore significant political capital. There was some apprehension in the market ahead of the election and a clear majority will certainly soothe nerves.
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White papers
Evaluating the Effects of China’s Pork Crisis
African swine fever is ravaging China’s pork supply and having a global impact on protein prices. For equity investors, the crisis serves as a reminder that even amid trade-war uncertainty, research into domestic trends can help investors access the country’s vast stock market.
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White papers
Equity Options Skews: Why No Surprises?
Equity index options are the least surprising of options markets. According to data and the best of our knowledge, out-the-money (OTM) call options have never cost more than OTM puts on equity index options – reflecting the greater concern of a market slump than a rally.
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White papers
Gold/Silver Options Skews: Upside Risk Ahead?
U.S. monetary policy exerts a strong influence on the skewness of currency, gold and silver options. In a normal monetary environment where short-term interest rates are well above zero, investors tend to be more concerned about gold and silver prices rising abruptly than falling.
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White papers
Energy Options Skews: Beyond Supply Shocks
The U.S. shale oil revolution has given out-of-the-money put options a persistently negative skew over the past decade, overshadowing likely supply woes.
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White papers
The Short and Long of Oil
Short-term forces centered on supply constraints are driving the oil market higher but increasing fuel efficiency could temper prices over the long term.
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White papers
EM Debt: Investing with Cautious Optimism
Sovereign debt outperformed in Q1 as geopolitical headlines continued to garner attention and commodities rallied. Risks remain for the asset class but some notable headwinds have now become tailwinds.
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White papersCommodities Investment Insight - Inflation and commodities: Examining the link
Commodities are commonly viewed as an inflation hedge. This perception is driven by two factors—the first being the numeraire effect of U.S. dollar pricing and the second due to how inflation may be defined. A common way to measure the inflation rate is to calculate the percentage change in the consumer price index (CPI).
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White papers
Treasury Options Skews: Investment Signals or Noise?
Nearly all options markets exhibit some kind of natural skewness. For example, out-of-the-money (OTM) put options on equity index futures are typically cost more than OTM call options as investors typically fear a sudden fall in stock prices more than a sudden rise and, hence, are willing to pay more for protection to the downside than upside.
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White papers
EM Debt: Investing with Cautious Optimism
Sovereign debt outperformed in Q1 as geopolitical headlines continued to garner attention and commodities rallied. Risks remain for the asset class but some notable headwinds have now become tailwinds.
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White papers
Grain, Oilseed Prices Dance to a new Global Tune
As global crop production diversifies geographically, prices for corn, soybean and wheat are becoming more sensitive to currencies like the ruble and real.
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White papersInsurers Need High-Tech Solutions in a Low-Liquidity World
Liquidity has become a precious commodity in fixed-income markets since the global financial crisis. Post-crisis regulations have made broker-dealers reluctant to warehouse large risks on their books, which in turn has made it more difficult for insurers and other institutional investors to trade large blocks of bonds quickly and efficiently.
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White papersSome great companies and attractive valuations offer opportunities in Europe
Following strong performance in 2017, European markets retreated in 2018 – a sell-off that was markedly similar to the 2015-16 downturn, when industrials, miners, banks, commodities and emerging markets plummeted by 30% or more
