2021 Covid surging in 1H and inflation swelling in 2H have contributed to the political pendulum swinging hard left in LatAm. More structurally, the commodity super cycle unwind mid last decade and the political discontent likely set the entire shift in motion. Against the general trend, some elections cycles moved in the other direction as well.
2021 was an intense and dramatic year for the LatAm region with Covid surging in 1H, inflation swelling in 2H and the political pendulum swinging hard left for chunks of the year. While the former two likely contributed to the latter’s leftward shift cyclically, the longer in duration structural decline caused by the commodity super cycle unwind mid last decade likely set the entire shift in motion.
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