US midterm elections will determine control of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate. All 435 House seats are up for election, along with 33 regular Senate seats. At present, Republicans control both chambers: the House stands at 220 Republicans to 215 Democrats, while the Senate stands at 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and 2 independents who caucus with Democrats. The chamber most likely to flip is the House, given the narrow margin, while the Senate is harder to change because only one-third of seats are contested at a time.

Summary

• US midterm elections: fiscal gridlock on the horizon?
• Will markets remain resilient with yields above 5%?

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