All Fixed Income articles – Page 62
-
White papersMarkets Testing Central Bank Resolve
Despite hawkish comments by Fed officials this week, markets continue to price in a more dovish path for rates. The BoE hiked 50bps and downgraded its economic outlook, calling for a U.K. recession in Q4. Eyes will be on U.S. CPI next week to gauge whether inflation is peaking.
-
White papersEmerging market debt: Looking for opportunities in challenging circumstances
Persistently high global inflation has forced the world’s leading central banks to start tightening monetary policy. However, the prices of many of the most vulnerable emerging market bond issuers are now quoted close to – and in some cases lower – than their expected recovery value.
-
White papersMulti-asset investing in times of volatility
2022 has been one of the most volatile periods in recent years for global equity and fixed income markets. The outbreak of the war in Ukraine, global supply chain disruptions, global inflationary pressures, less accommodative central banks and COVID-19 restrictions in China have all weighed on investor sentiment.
-
White papersAsset Class Returns Forecasts - Q3 2022
A combination of sustained inflation and mounting recession fears, interlinked with the geopolitical situation, are the main drivers affecting the current and forward-looking macro environments. The bulk of the uncertainty is in the short to medium term.
-
White papersData Delivers Mixed Messages Amid Slowdown
Mixed data is fueling debate about underlying economic strength and recession odds. Meanwhile, markets this week await Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. Elsewhere, Chinese policymakers took steps to address rising risks to the outlook. Eyes will be on Nord Stream 1 next week.
-
White papersGeopolitics vs. the race to net zero
The Ukraine crisis is a horrendous tragedy and the war will have a considerable impact on the European and global economy. It has brought sharply into focus the fragility of supply chains and energy security - which has manifested in runaway inflation.
-
White papersSeven reasons why the time is right to buy EMD
Investors should be grasping at the unprecedented opportunity presented by emerging market debt.
-
White papersThe sleeping giant: Unlocking sustainable finance
Many banks are failing to realise their impact potential, thus missing out on commercial opportunity in the real economy
-
White papersFixed Income Perspectives - July 2022
The combination of persistently high inflation, aggressive central banks and tightening financial conditions is weighing on financial markets and global growth outlooks. While valuations across many sectors look compelling after the market sell-off this year, we are exercising caution given greater uncertainty and elevated recession risk.
-
White papersGlobal Macro Outlook - Third Quarter 2022
The global economic outlook deteriorated sharply in the second quarter and markets are increasingly concerned that higher rates will lead to a recession. This outcome isn’t a certainty, but the probability of slower or negative growth has increased materially as inflation has stayed high.
-
VideoIs Now the Time to Buy Loans?
Chris Sawyer, Head of European High Yield, provides an overview of the current conditions in the global loan market and explains why now may prove to be a particularly attractive time to deploy capital into the asset class.
-
White papersGlobal Investment Views - August 2022
The first sequence of the double bear markets (in equities and long-term bonds) adjusting to the end of easy money and rising inflation is almost complete. Now, the narrative has changed, with a shift in focus to deceleration of growth vs fears of inflation.
-
White papersJuly 26-27 FOMC Review: Maintaining a Hawkish Course
The Federal Reserve hiked the fed funds rate by 75bp to 2.25-2.50%, the second consecutive 75bp rate hike. The Fed rate decision was widely expected. With today’s rate hike, the fed funds rate is within the 2 to 3% range of estimates of the long-term “neutral” rate. However, as Chair Powell reminded us during his press conference, policy needs to go beyond neutral into restrictive territory this year in order to reduce inflation.
-
White papersHigh Yield: When Technicals Create Opportunity
Challenging technical conditions have caused high yield spreads to widen beyond what fundamentals would suggest, potentially setting the stage for strong performance in loans and senior secured bonds, in particular.
-
White papersIG Credit: Valuations More Attractive, But Uncertainties Loom
Despite the prevailing uncertainty, IG corporate fundamentals appear solid and yields are approaching potentially attractive levels relative to history.
-
White papersThree Reasons to Consider CLOs
The combination of wider spreads, strong structural protections and low interest-rate sensitivity presents a potentially compelling case for CLOs.
-
White papersCompass - Mind the lag: recession fears flare too fast
Investors expect central banks will tame inflation whatever the cost, even triggering recession if necessary. This may indeed be policymakers’ approach in the short term as they seek to re-establish their credibility. The European Central Bank’s decision to raise rates by 50 bps is a case in point.
-
White papersTowards a new set of fiscal rules in Europe: an investor view
In the current high-inflation regime, the use of fiscal space must: (1) be rule-based; and (2) preserve the possibility of a cooperative game between monetary and budgetary policies. This use of fiscal space should also help manage investors’ expectations, in order to minimise the risk of ‘sunspot equilibria’, where investors’ beliefs cause prices to diverge from fundamentals.
-
White papersTowards new fiscal rules in Europe
After years of dormant peripheral risk, the recent resurgence of fragmentation issues in Europe, amid rising stagflationary risks at a time of Central Banks committing to tame inflation, puts the delicate fiscal and monetary equilibrium under the spotlight. When facing a higher inflationary regime, we call for a new set of fiscal rules designed to overcome the limits of the old overly rigid one size-fits-all framework.
-
White papersInflation is Hot—and Could Stay Hot
Autumn and winter should bring respite from the northern hemisphere’s punishing summer heatwave, but we don’t think they will ease the inflation temperature.
