All Fixed Income articles – Page 67
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White papersHow Life Insurers Account for Realized Losses May Cause Unnecessary Pain
An accounting method long used by life insurers has come under pressure amid rising rates and wider credit spreads, potentially setting the life insurance industry up for large unrealized losses. But there may be a solution.
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White papersMarket Scenarios and Risks - November 2022
We maintain the probabilities of our scenarios unchanged. Some of the risk factors we identify may occur in our central scenario, which is probably not yet fully priced-in by markets.
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White papersFor the Fed, the impossible QT
The Fed has started shrinking its balance sheet as part of its fight against elevated inflation. However, QT is being challenged by the Fed’s new role as a counterparty of money-market funds. The process would be greatly improved if the Treasury were to announce a debt buyback financed ...
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White papers1-2 November FOMC meeting: debating a downshift, not a pivot
As widely expected, on 2 November, the Federal Reserve hiked the Federal Funds rate by 75bp, to 3.75-4.00%. The action marked the fourth consecutive 75bp rate hike this year. Investors initially interpreted the accompanying statement as dovish by selling the dollar and buying US Treasuries and equities.
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White papersAsset Class Returns Forecasts - Q4 2022
We reiterate the main driver affecting the current and forward-looking macro environments is a combination of sustained inflation, mounting recession fears and geopolitical developments. Price stability has become the paramount goal and even more complicated to reach, therefore CBs will make sure high inflation will not be entrenched in economic agents’ long-term expectations.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - November 2022
Tightening monetary policy and slowing economic growth lead us to keep a cautious stance on risk assets, in light of potential liquidity and refinancing issues, particularly in low quality credit. We prefer US IG (over HY) segments and selectively like EM hard currency debt.
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White papersNot a Pivot
Inflation is resilient and rates keep rising. Our central Stagflation Shock scenario, with persistent inflation and slower growth, continues to play out, though there is mounting evidence inflation may be resistant to policy tightening. Smaller hikes would indicate success, not a pivot in central banks’ resolve.
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White papersNew reality for investors: 5 big trends changing markets
There’s a new reality taking shape in global markets.
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White papersESG considerations in securitised fixed income
At Thornburg, we feel a fully integrated investment approach is the most effective way to incorporate ESG factors into securitized fixed income analysis.
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White papersRecession watch: triggers, outlook and what next for central banks
While recession risk is clearly elevated around the world, they are notoriously hard to predict with any accuracy, in terms of timing, duration or impact.
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White papersA dovish pivot from the ECB: Euro bonds back in focus
The ECB has reiterated its strong commitment to fighting inflation, which it says remains ‘far too high’ and will stay above target for an extended period.
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White papersUnearthing opportunities in Asian credit markets
2022 has been a challenging year for fixed income, with global investment grade bonds down 14% over the past 12 months. Investment grade corporate bonds in Asia have outpaced US and global bonds, mainly due to their shorter duration.
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White papersNavigating dark clouds across emerging markets debt
It has been an unrelenting year of negative headlines, with a war in Ukraine, inflation concerns and recession fears jolting investors into a frenzy. Capital Group Investment Director David Cheng sat down with Portfolio Manager Luis Freitas de Oliveira to discuss his thoughts on the challenging macro backdrop, the investment implications for emerging markets debt (EMD) and how, in his view, the asset class remains investable amid the growing headwinds.
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White papersThe unequal impact of inflation: How governments are responding
Inflation has risen to multi-decade highs in most international economies, both developing and emerging. Most recently it has been driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has significantly impacted food and energy prices. However, beyond the headline measures of inflation, the effect of rising food and energy prices typically has a greater impact on lower-income countries, households and individuals.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - November 2022
Central banks (CBs) are trying to work out how far they should go in terms of their aggressive tightening talk. We see four main factors to consider when assessing whether we will see pivots from CBs: (1) The still strong job market does not support a shift in stance from the Fed.
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White papersIG Credit: Strong Fundamentals, But Inflationary Pressures Grow
Current yield and spread levels, coupled with companies’ durable credit profiles, suggest that IG corporate credit continues to look attractive—but a number of risks remain on the horizon.
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White papersHigh Yield: Value on Offer, But Stormy Seas Ahead
While there are signs that volatility will likely continue in high yield through the coming months, this environment, ultimately, may prove to be a significant opportunity for value creation.
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PodcastThe Investment Podcast: Time to allocate to mispriced consumer finance opportunities?
Imagine a new global financial crisis (GFC) materialising every year from here. The market seems focused on the fact that it will get tougher for consumers, and is in some cases pricing in default rates equivalent to GFC levels of stress, for years to come.
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White papersIs This ‘Nightmare on Wall Street’ Coming to an End?
Do corporate earnings disappointments signal a weaker economy and easing inflation pressures, which could end this scary market—or are there more twists to come?
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White papersESG investing in EM debt: enhancing sustainable development outcomes
Today’s financial markets are at an extraordinary juncture, grappling with persistently high inflation, war in Eastern Europe, global climate change and the ongoing and severe effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Against this backdrop, fixed income investors are increasingly seeking to generate financial returns while building portfolios that support positive outcomes through environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing.
