All Fixed Income articles – Page 63
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook: 3Q 2022
Central bank monetary tightening has arrived, with a resulting shift upward in market interest rates and widened credit spreads. Although there is risk to the upside, we believe that inflation will ease from peak levels but remain elevated above targets until well into next year. In this environment we are seeing opportunities across credit sectors. Continued macro volatility will keep spreads “two-way,” while positive underlying fundamentals across a range of sectors should provide support.
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White papersECB meeting: larger-than-expected rate hike, with new fragmentation tool outlined
What is your take on the July ECB meeting and what could the next steps be?
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White papersWhiplash!
Hard economic data has remained strong, but recession risks are on the rise. Combined with limited forward guidance from Central Banks, this has left markets to have to decipher what each data print will mean for monetary policy and the path of rates.
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White papersUnwavering Resolve
Central banks are increasingly worried they might be losing an inflation battle that could now be generational, so expect them to get much more aggressive to catch up.
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White papersMidyear Strategic Investment Outlook: What Does the Market Move Mean for Strategic Investors?
Many people say they like to be long-term investors. It’s a laudable ambition, but often the short term gets in the way. Our notes typically focus on the strategic horizon, but when the S&P 500 falls by 20%, 10-year Treasury yields rise by 140 basis points and Bitcoin is down by 60% since the start of 2022, strategic investors need to respond.
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White papersWhen short term pain can bring long term gains
2022 has not been a great time for bonds. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index and Bloomberg US Treasury Index both hit historical lows, returning -13.9% and -9.1%, respectively, in the first 6 months of 20221 . Meanwhile, risky asset classes also sold off significantly, which has led to many investors questioning the role of bonds as a diversifier to equities.
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White papersMarket Scenarios and Risks - July/August 2022
We keep the probabilities of our central and alternative scenarios unchanged vs. last month. The new wave of Covid-19 and stagnation in the Eurozone are adding growth uncertainty over the short-term.
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - July/August 2022
United States: signs of decelerating growth are increasing as high inflation bites into consumers’ disposable income and companies’ margins. While we do not see activity contracting in Q2, risks to our projections remain on the downside. We do expect the US economy to grow below potential between now and yearend and to remain on a similar sub-par growth trajectory into 2023, as tighter monetary policy impacts the most interestrate-sensitive sectors of the economy.
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White papersThe ECB’s ability to raise rates will depend on the strength of the antifragmentation tool
The ECB is determined to tighten its monetary policy in the face of record high inflation levels. However, it is addressing that risk by cooling inflation down or pushing the economy into recession or triggering a spike in peripheral debt borrowing costs, as in 2012.
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White papersEnergy Fuels European Inflation & Rate Fears
U.S. labor demand remains strong but has likely passed the peak imbalance with supply, while the Fed has reaffirmed its prioritization of inflation over growth. Elsewhere, talks of greater hikes by the ECB followed inflation surprises in Europe. All eyes are on U.S. CPI next week.
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White papersInto the Inflationary Slowdown
As inflation persists and recession risks rise, our Asset Allocation Committee sees more yield potential in fixed income and favors commodities for ongoing inflation exposure, but remains cautious in equities.
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PodcastThe Investment Podcast: Key growth drivers for private markets
With interest rates, inflation and growth out of kilter, the world is in an extraordinary place. While it may be difficult to see exactly where and how to invest, periods of volatility do also throw up opportunity. In this latest episode, Will Nicoll considers the two big growth engines for private markets that will fundamentally reshape various economies around the globe.
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White papersInsurers’ buy and maintain portfolios and sustainable investment
This article aims to explore how the inclusion of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria became a critical part of the management of Buy & Maintain (B&M) portfolios for insurers and other long-term investors and why we consider that the addition of new climate-aware guidelines such as temperature or carbon intensity should be implemented in all B&M portfolios, when possible, subject to a sound engagement policy.
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White papersA safe haven in a time of uncertainty
Royal London Asset Management (RLAM) has partnered with Fundrock distribution S.A, who will distribute RLAM’s products and services in the EEA. This follows the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union and ending of the subsequent transition period, as UK Financial Services firms, including RLAM, can no longer passport their business into the EEA.
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White papersThe ECB’s Trilemma
Are we seeing the start of another eurozone crisis, or can the ECB fashion an effective tool to manage volatile southern European bond spreads?
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White papersCredit Factor Investing with Machine Learning techniques
The most common models to assess asset returns are a linear combination of risk factors. We have employed tree-based machine learning algorithms to capture nonlinearities and detect interaction effects among risk factors in the EUR and USD credit space. We have built a nonlinear credit pricing model and compared it to our baseline linear credit pricing model using error metrics on training and testing sets and during different periods.
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White papersH2 2022 Investment Outlook - Life above zero: investors’ journey at a time of rising rates
We started the year with expectations of strong growth and high inflation throughout the first part of 2022. The Russia-Ukraine war accentuated the inflationary trend, now well above Central Bank (CB) targets, which is now set to persist longer than expected.
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White papersSticker Shock Sinks In
Investor sentiment has whipsawed in recent weeks amid focus on growth risks. U.S. and euro area PMIs underperformed and real U.S. spending fell for the first time since November. On the other hand, China has taken a step to relax restrictions. Watch for U.S. jobs data next week.
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White papersWith inflation on the rise, what is the long-term economic impact?
Inflation’s resurgence during the past year has awakened fears that the global economy has returned to the 1970s – a period when growth stagnated and central banks lost control of price stability. That’s too pessimistic a view.
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White papersFocus on Spain: macroeconomic projections and fixed income view
Under our scenario and assumptions, Spanish GDP is projected to grow at 4.2% in 2022, moving below 2% in 2023, significantly below Banco de España projections for 2023 and 2024 at 2.8% and 2.6%, respectively, as we expect the current environment of higher energy and gas prices and high inflation to negatively affect consumers, companies and activity.
