All Fixed Income articles – Page 57
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White papers
China’s policy pivot favours Asia credit
Faced with slowing economic growth, we believe Beijing has shifted its focus away from tackling the country’s medium-term structural problems. The priority now, in our view, is supporting the economy, including the debt-ridden property sector where construction activity and property sales slumped after the imposition of stricter controls.
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China’s GDP Target: When Lower Means (Much) Higher
The unprecedented nature of the pandemic lockdowns has stretched the ability of standard macroeconomic statistics to properly reflect real-time economic trends.
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A Thematic Approach to the Fog of War and Hawkish Central Banks
Our outlook heading into 2022 focused on the strength of global growth, especially in the developed world. In the U.S. and Euro area (EA), we projected above-trend growth of 3.6% and 4.3%, respectively.
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Value Can Potentially Outperform Even if Growth Slows
We believe value is likely to outperform growth over the coming years—and threats to economic growth from inflation, rate hikes and geopolitical risks do not change our view.
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White papers
Russia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deteriorating
The second week of conflict in the Ukraine was marked by additional market volatility. Equities are down across the board. The demand for safe-haven assets temporarily pushed the 10-year Treasury down to 1.7% before it retraced to 1.9% amid rising inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, gold has remained well supported, briefly moving above $2000/ounce.
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White papers
Short Duration High Yield: Replacing Rates Risk With Credit Risk
Short-duration high yield could be an under-explored option for investors who need current income to meet short-term liabilities, but cannot afford the interest rate risk that would accompany a search for yield in longer-dated bonds.
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White papers
Senior Floating Rate Loans: A Low-Cost Hedge Against Inflation
Headline CPI inflation in the U.S. came in at 7.5% year-over-year in January 2022, its highest level since the mid-1980s. Before the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalated, market participants held the view that the Federal Reserve was well behind the curve on rate hikes as the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury reached a near-term peak of 2.05% on February 15.
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White papers
Central Banks on Deck to Fight Inflation
The ECB was owlish—carefully hawkish. It further reduced asset purchases for Q2 below the €40 billion previously announced and left completely open the pace of asset purchases for Q3. This leaves room for great flexibility: the ability to hike or not in Q4.
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White papers
Investing Through Climate Risk in Emerging Markets Debt
In this Q&A from the Nordic Fund Selection Journal, Kawtar Ed-Dahmani and Ashwinder Bakhshi discuss where they’re seeing the most material effects from climate change across emerging markets debt today—and what they’re anticipating going forward.
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White papers
Months When Decades Happen
Europe enters this dangerous period on solid footing. Unemployment is at record lows. Wage growth remains subdued. Russia’s war in Ukraine adds a strong inflation headwind to the ongoing expansion.
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Russia/Ukraine Conflict: Market Outlook
As the tragic crisis in Ukraine continues to unfold, Martin Currie offers our viewpoint on the potential market impacts, both near and longer-term.
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White papers
Russia-Ukraine: an uncertain outcome calls for higher focus on liquidity
At the core of the crisis, Russian assets have become almost un-investible, with dramatic price action as the market attempts to grapple with uncertainty. European equities have suffered, anticipating the negative consequences of the war on corporate earnings, while also commodities trended higher with double digit rise across many commodities. A flight to safety move has benefited government bonds, with the US treasury yield and the Bund yield trending lower.
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White papers
Uninvestable Russia
We survey the impact on worldwide fixed income markets of the devastation in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia, and send our thoughts to those in the heart of the conflict.
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White papers
Spectrum, Q1 2022: The Great Rotation 2.0
Slower growth rates, tighter labour markets, higher inflation and normalising monetary policies provides the classic backdrop to a great rotation from growth to value stocks, as well as a change in fixed income strategy.
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UK supermarkets: a sector in the eye of the storm
As the world slowly moves on from the pandemic, Eugenia Lara Armas, Credit Analyst, looks at how shifts in shopping habits will impact credit investors, with a focus on the UK supermarket sector.
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White papers
The Fog of War Clouds Economic Outlooks
The war in Ukraine continues to dominate market moves, leading to volatility in risk assets, and the safe haven bid is still in focus amid a stronger U.S. dollar and higher precious metal prices. Commodities are soaring, with BBG Commodity Index on track for the biggest gain since 1960.
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White papers
Quick Thoughts: Ukraine, Russia, and the Path Forward
Kim Catechis, Investment Strategist for the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute, recently shared his thoughts around the situation in Ukraine and the implications for the global economy and capital markets.
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White papers
Positioning Liquid Credit Portfolios For Rising Rates & Inflation
Martin Horne, Head of Global Public Fixed Income, discusses how to mitigate the risk of rising rates and inflation, touching on the potential benefits of floating rate assets and short-duration strategies.
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White papers
Cross Asset Investment Strategy - March 2022
The geopolitical escalation at month’s end marks a further rise in volatility, even as the Fed and the ECB displayed hawkish overtures earlier. We suggest a more cautious stance in credit amid rising liquidity risks and a less appealing risk/return profile for credit compared with equity.
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White papers
Macroeconomic Picture - March 2022
The Russia/Ukraine crisis is pushing the regime shift one step further with more severe economic implications for some regions, in this case Europe because of its energy dependence and geographic proximity.