All Fixed Income articles – Page 53
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White papersShifts & Narratives #20 - Stagflation and its roots in capital misallocation
In the ongoing regime shift, investors have to deal with significant legacies stemming from the previous ‘Volckerian’ regime, namely two forms of inflation: asset price inflation over the course of three decades and, more recently, inflation in the price of goods and services.
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White papersResponsible Lending: The Myth of the Perfect Investment
If building a sustainable bond portfolio sounds tidy and straightforward, it isn’t. The auto industry illustrates the difficulty of finding a perfectly sustainable private sector investment.
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Blog“Friend-shoring:” Does Regional Retrenchment Herald Lower EM Growth?
Just as the world economy was recovering from COVID-19, 2022 brought fresh challenges. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, higher energy prices, food shortages and protectionist tensions all weigh on emerging-market (EM) growth. As a result, the IMF lowered its EM growth outlook for 2022 from +4.8% in January to +3.8% in April.
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White papersThe Two-Way Market Persists
In a webinar a few weeks back, my colleagues, Joe Amato and Erik Knutzen, and I sought to size up the market environment of ongoing volatility and selloffs, pressure from the Federal Reserve, and fears about inflation and growth.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - June 2022
The repricing of a more aggressive Fed stance has been brutal as the 10Y UST yield temporarily reached the 3% threshold, falling close to 2.75% recently on economic growth concerns. We think investors should move towards neutrality on duration in the US and Europe, whereas in credit, they should focus on quality and stay cautious on higher-risk segments in Europe.
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White papersThe Path From the Peak
With inflation still above-trend, prices rising for necessities, central banks tightening policy, and fallout from China’s zero-COVID policy, we will watch for a sharp slowdown in growth over the 12–18 month outlook.
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White papersThe myth of the fiscal free lunch: beware of the trap. An investor’s viewpoint
The idea that there is a comfortable degree of budgetary room for more active fiscal policy goes hand-in-hand with the assumption that a sustained bond correction (higher safe real interest rate) is not only unjustified based on fundamentals, but is also impossible. This comes as no surprise. On average throughout modern history, safe real interest rates have been lower than the GDP growth rate, making it easier to finance public deficits.
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White papersShifts & Narratives #19 - The fiscal illusion: no free lunch for investors
The conversation regarding whether there is room for more aggressive fiscal policy is a hot political topic today. In the US, the debate is likely to become even more inflamed as we approach the midterm elections. In fact, these are at risk of becoming an evaluation of President Biden’s policies in light of the excessive fiscal spending carried out in response to the Covid pandemic (and its subsequent impact on the economy).
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White papersSmoothing Long-Term ESG Transition
At Neuberger Berman, we believe that attention to material environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors will be crucial to managing investment portfolios over time. The Non-Investment Grade team closely integrates ESG factors into fundamental credit research, engaging rigorously with issuers to ensure that associated risks and opportunities are taken into account in business strategy and the allocation of capital.
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White papersThe Case for Investing in Senior Secured Bonds
From capital structure seniority and high historical recovery rates, to lower interest rate sensitivity and compelling yields, global senior secured bonds offer a number of potential advantages.
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PodcastThe Inflation Playbook
How does today’s inflation compare to history and how are higher CPI numbers impacting economic growth? What can central bankers do to combat inflation? And how can investors navigate this environment? Dr. Christopher Smart weighs in on these questions and more.
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White papersSpotlight on Fixed Income: Looking beyond the uncertainty
There is no doubt that investors today face an exceptionally tricky environment, with a host of issues clouding the outlook for global growth.
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White papersMarket snapshot: Recession fears grow as central banks step up inflation fight
The Fed cut rates by half a percentage point for the first time in two decades. The yield on US 10-year treasuries edged above 3% this week as traders reacted to tightening monetary policy and ongoing uncertainty.
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White papersPlus and minus: can QT annihilate QE (and other anti-inflation questions for financial markets)
Fiorino queries whether investors should expect an equal-and-opposite reaction as central banks release the anti-QE solution into the real world…
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White papersMunicipal bonds: an attractive entry point
Municipal bonds have had a rocky start to 2022, but credit quality remains strong. With aggressive rate increases and a shrinking balance sheet, the U.S. Federal Reserve is signaling a quicker move toward a neutral policy rate.
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White papersApproaching uncertainty with confidence in emerging markets fixed income
The war in Ukraine has added continued volatility to emerging markets fixed income assets. According to our latest study, institutional investors around the world are wary of the war’s market and economic impacts but remain optimistic for the months ahead.
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White papersInflation: Higher but Not Forever
High inflation and the consequences of attempts to curb it are a top concern for today’s investors. We believe that, by hiking rates, policymakers can eventually slow demand enough to subdue price pressures, even in an environment of constrained supply. But this process takes time.
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White papersFour Key Findings about the U.S. Yield Curve
The U.S. yield curve attracts a great deal of attention when it is close to inverting given its historical connection with U.S. recessions as well as sharp selloffs in equity and credit markets.
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PodcastFixed on ESG, Ep. 2
Food prices have been rising globally for some time now. While the Russia/Ukraine conflict has exacerbated food instability, many other factors have also come into play including the COVID-19 pandemic, increases in demand from growing populations, extreme weather events, among others.
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White papersNavigating an inflationary environment in US and global equities
Forty years … That’s how long it has been since the Great Inflation, which lasted from 1965 to 1982 and saw inflation in the US climb as high as 13.5%. According to Michael Bryan of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, it was the “defining macroeconomic event of the second half of the twentieth century … there were four economic recessions, two severe energy shortages, and the unprecedented implementation of wage and price controls”.
