All Fixed Income articles – Page 48
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White papersMarket Scenarios and Risks - February 2023
We revise the probabilities of our alternative scenarios. Some of the risk factors we identify may occur in our central scenario, which is probably not yet fully priced in, especially by equity markets.
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White papersWhy and what if inflation falls faster than expected?
”As fiscal support should wane, this could lead to lower inflation pressures in the second half of 2023 and to a faster decline in inflation”
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White papersChina’s Reopening Bodes Well for Asian Fixed-Income Markets
Markets have responded warmly to China’s easing of its zero-COVID policy, although it’s not clear yet how quickly or smoothly the country’s economy will recover. While some bumps in the road are likely, we expect China’s reopening could lead to further gains in Asian credit and currencies in 2023.
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White papersCan inflation end without a meaningful increase in unemployment?
In the latest instalment of Simply put, where we make macro calls with a multi-asset perspective, we ask whether a shared belief in the prospect of a soft-landing is enough to bring it about.
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White papersFed continuing to downshift: 31 January-1 February FOMC review
The Federal Reserve hiked the fed funds rate by 25bp, to 4.50-4.75%, a step down after the Fed hiked by 50bp in December. The slowing in the pace of rate hikes was widely expected.
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White papersEuropean leveraged loans: Defensive against rising rates and uncertainty?
2022 represented the end of the more than decade-long bull run and the impact for European loans was a dislocation to yields of c.10%. For long-term investors, we believe this provides an interesting investment opportunity for a senior secured defensive asset class with typically higher risk-adjusted returns than comparable credit risk asset classes.
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BlogBeyond the Muni Bond Bounce
Early 2023 has brought a more favorable backdrop for municipal bonds, prompting investors to consider whether the market rally is sustainable or just a bear market bounce.
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White papersExtinguishing the flame: Has inflation peaked?
Despite further hikes, markets are factoring in a less hawkish approach from central banks.
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White papersHow liquid is the green bond market?
The green bond sector has grown to be a $1trn-plus investable market that has seen a sharp uptick in diversification on the credit side and an increasing number of sovereign issuers.
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White papersECB-inspired rally risks going too far
The European Central Bank raised its key policy interest rates by half a percentage point, lifting the deposit rate to 2.5%, and said it intended to deliver a similar rate rise in March because of underlying inflation pressures. It also gave details of how it will reduce its balance sheet. For corporate bonds, it plans to tilt reinvestments more strongly towards issuers with a better climate performance.
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White papersAn outlook for the sustainable bond market
After a muted year for sustainable bonds in 2022, there are indications that the outlook for 2023 is more upbeat. Malika Takhtayeva and Xuan Sheng Ou Yong discuss what the future might look like for corporate and sovereign use-of-proceeds bonds.
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BlogFed Reignites the Search for Yield
Bolstered by broadening expectations for moderation in growth and inflation data, the Fed’s February meeting reignited the market’s search for yield and fueled the rally in risk assets.
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White papersWhat is a CLO?
CLOs provide an efficient, scalable way of investing in floating-rate loans while offering structural protection that has historically performed well through multiple credit cycles.
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BlogECB in Pole Position to Over-Tighten in 2023
One narrative of 2022 was that central banks, including the ECB, were “behind the curve,” in their inflation fight. If this was right, financial conditions would need to tighten notably in 2023.
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PodcastFixed on ESG, Ep. 10 - Biodiversity 101: Dissecting COP15 with Planet Tracker
A discussion on the importance of biodiversity and the successes and misses of COP15 with special guests from Planet Tracker.
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White papersMacro Matters - Better than feared. Worse than hoped.
In this monthly series, we take a quick, comprehensive look at current macroeconomic themes that matter to clients.
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White papersA framework for navigating uncertainty
Uncertainty over inflation and central bank policy is likely to remain high during the first half of 2023 with a wide distribution of potential outcomes. Despite this, analysis shows that bonds already price in most of the downside risk and are expected to deliver favourable outcomes across a number of scenarios, as highlighted in the chart below.
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White papersFirmer foundations for China’s property market in 2023
The Chinese property sector has been in the headlines over the past year, and not for the right reasons.
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White papersBonds are back: credit markets focus during 2023
This year, we expect the global economic environment to feature sluggish growth and an extended period of sustained high inflation. For the credit market, it will be a tale of two halves:
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