All Fixed Income articles – Page 45
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White papersSchooling the Sovereigns
Bond markets appear to be disciplining policy inconsistencies, both within sovereigns and among them.
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PodcastAll The Credit, Ep. 34 - Supply Chain Strain Reframe
Guillermo Felices explains our proprietary inflation model and provides an update on the direction and level of inflation that we’re expecting in 2023.
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White papersDistressed debt in a developing recessionary environment
High inflation is being fuelled by supply chain disruption caused by the pandemic, high energy prices caused by the war in Ukraine and high employment. High inflation is forcing Central Banks to aggressively increase interest rates.
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White papersFixed Income: Rollercoaster ride to reality
We are witnessing a major shift in the fixed income investment environment. Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai assesses the role of global and country-specific driving forces, and shares her views on the investment opportunities ahead.
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White papersUK government woes continue to overshadow markets
Investors unnerved by conflicting plans of the Bank of England and the UK Treasury as central bank seeks to put brake on growth to tame inflation while government wants to put foot on the growth accelerator.
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White papersU.S. Inflation Feeling Hot, Hot, Hot
Inflation rages on in the U.S. and elsewhere as the global economy faces further instability. What will this mean for central banks’ tightening efforts in the coming weeks, and are markets starting to recognize–and react–that it will take more time for prices to come down?
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook: 4Q 2022
Despite volatility, the basic storyline of inflation and the Federal Reserve should continue to drive market behavior. Over the months ahead, we anticipate continued tightening by the Fed and challenging European growth trends, with tail risks tied to the U.K., China weakness and policy overreach. A focus on shorter durations and quality, with opportunistic exposure to longer bonds and credit, merits consideration.
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White papersGlobal CIO Q&A: on inflation, rates, recession and more
Inflation has reached record levels. What do you expect in the upcoming months?
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White papersFixed income: capturing the comeback
High yields, resurgent carry and supportive pull-to-par dynamics are boosting potential returns across fixed-income markets. In the Q4 issue of Alphorum, we build a constructive case for active, forward-looking investment – with a focus on investment-grade and crossover credit – while taking stock of growth, inflation and energy-price pressures.
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PodcastMaking Sense of Markets and Policy Change
On this episode of Disruptive Forces, host Anu Rajakumar is joined by Robert Dishner, Senior Portfolio Manager for Multi-Sector Fixed Income, to discuss current volatile market dynamics and the associated challenges as we head toward the end of the year.
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White papers360°, Q3 2022
In the latest edition of our 360° report, we revisit what’s been something of an annus horribilus for fixed income investors. Against a backdrop of rising inflation, tightening monetary policy and a historical drawdown for bond markets, what are the prospects for an asset class that emphasizes stability and reliable returns?
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - October 2022
United States: Growth. We are still calling a soft landing in the US, with an extended period of sub-par growth for 2023 and 2024. We expect the US economy to grow by 0.9% in 2023 (1.1% Q4/Q4) and 1.3% in 2024 (1.3% Q4/Q4). Inflation. Headline inflation has peaked in the ...
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White papersMarket Scenarios and Risks - October 2022
We maintain the content and probabilities of our scenarios. Note that some of the risk factors we identify may occur in our central scenario, which is probably not yet fully priced-in by markets. It would take a combination of risk factors for the downside scenario to materialise. The downside is counterbalanced by an upside scenario, that of a rapid decline in inflation due to an easing of gas prices and/or to the combined tightening of global monetary policies, the impact of which can be underestimated.
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White papersToo early for a Fed pivot
The flattening of the US yield curve will depend on the persistence of core inflation and on the impact of monetary tightening on growth. The more resilient the US economy proves to interest-rate hikes, the more aggressively the Fed will have to tighten monetary policy, thereby increasing the risk of recession. We have gone from ‘bad news is good news’ to ‘good news is bad news’.
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White papersTLTRO in the context of ECB policy normalisation
TLTRO repayments and redemptions will drive incoming ECB passive QT over the next few quarters. So far, banks have repaid a small amount of liquidity, while the ECB’s recent decision on remuneration of excess reserves has helped keep current excess liquidity abundant, aiming at a smooth transmission of its monetary policy.
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White papersUnited States: a green industrial policy in the making
The US Congress’s August approval of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) came as a surprise to most observers. With the mid-term elections just months away and no majority in Congress, no one expected new legislation to be passed. Yet, the Democrats and Republicans managed to reach a compromise. We discuss below the measures announced to promote the environmental transition, which is the centrepiece of the act.
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White papersCLOs: Up in Quality
Against a challenging macro backdrop, CLOs look attractive given the strong structural protections and incremental yield on offer—but there is a case to be made for staying up in quality.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - October 2022
Geopolitical risks, inflation and hawkish central banks translate into a cautious stance on risk assets such as credit, in which, a deceleration in growth (and its impact on earnings) could create concerns over cash flows and liquidity, especially for the lower rated companies. Hence, we prefer US IG and are defensive on HY.
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White papersA better ‘airbag’ makes CHF bonds attractive
The first half of 2022 showed that even safe CHF bonds are not immune from painful losses. After many years of excellent performance, the portfolio with all Swiss bonds, for example, did about as poorly as Swiss equities.
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White papersMarkets on edge despite Bank of England intervention
Sweeping UK government tax cuts sent shockwaves through financial markets as investors and economists queried the wisdom behind the plan.
