All Emerging Market articles – Page 31
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White papersMacroeconomic picture - October 2020
Q3 economic rebound exceeds our expectations on GDP, prompting an upside revision to our August forecasts. Yet, the deceleration in late Q3 of several indicators is keeping us from extrapolating Q3 momentum into Q4. After some softening in 2020 H2, headline inflation will move along a gradual upward trend, stabilising around 2% from mid-2021 with possible temporary overshooting. As November 3 approaches, policymakers’ focus is shifting, with an increased risk that 2020 fiscal policy will become more diluted than expected, and with little visibility on the Phase 4 deal in particular.
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White papersHow to Repair America’s Brand
A country that seems so divided—even discounting for a heated election and a pandemic—starts to raise questions for global investors.
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White papersAdvantage Biden after the first Presidential Debate
President Donald Trump and Former Vice-President Joe Biden met yesterday in their first Presidential debate in Cleveland, Ohio. This was an important milestone in the 2020 Presidential election, and the early indications on the morning after the debate are that it has changed the trajectory of the race in Biden’s favor. For Trump, it was one of his few opportunities to change the narrative of this election and define Biden.
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White papersNo Debating the Economic Recovery
U.S. personal income fell in August as the extra unemployment benefits ended while consumer spending rose. Eyes are on the China Services PMI, which will be released next week, and chances of a new fiscal stimulus package ahead of the election are still alive, for now.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - October 2020
Back from holidays, investors are dealing with rising volatility in the equity markets and initial signs of a fall in the extreme market complacency over the last few months. After the summer overshoot, Big Tech stocks have seen a pullback and some tensions have also materialized in the US HY segment, while IG markets remained more or less flat in the last month.
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White papersScenarios Around the “Not Quite Recovery”
We’ve come a long way since March, but there’s still a long road ahead. So far, the recovery is encouraging but the permanent damage to employment remains to be seen, as does the resilience of company balance sheets.
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White papersDisruptive technology – The drivers and the challenges
Disruptive technological change will continue to proceed along multiple dimensions, through innovations in products and processes as companies harness innovations from research and development in both the commercial and academic spheres, although the two are increasingly intertwined.
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White papersThe low volatility anomaly in equity sectors – 10 years later!
A decade ago, BNP Paribas Asset Management launched the global low volatility equity strategy after undertaking proprietary research into the characteristics of low risk stocks.
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White papersUS presidential election: how it will impact US economy and financial markets
Joe Biden has enjoyed a remarkably stable lead in the national polls this year. Currrently, he is leading President Trump by 7.6%, according to our poll of polls, down from a peak of 10.4% in June. However, we believe the race is much closer, at around 50/50, with a small Biden edge
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White papersThe Biggest Threat to the Global Recovery Lies Beneath This Dome
Rising acrimony at the U.S. Capital around the Supreme Court vacancy puts stimulus at risk and hurts long-term growth prospects.
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White papersTech innovation: reaching all sectors
Companies across a range of industries are deploying innovative technologies to spark rapid growth, creating attractive investment opportunities
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White papersFour ways to pick companies that can thrive beyond crisis
A set of all-weather principles for selecting stocks that will outperform over the long term, regardless of whether economies are buoyant or set for a long grind of slow growth
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White papersJapan: all eyes on the next Prime Minister
Following an eight-year term, Shinzo Abe announced he will stand down as Prime Minister of Japan due to a deterioration in his physical health. Japan’s Topix Index dropped around 2.5% in reaction to the news on 28 August 2020, before rebounding to close the day marginally negative. In the short-term we can expect downward pressure on the domestic equity market, while the yen appreciation as a result of political uncertainty will act as positive for non-JPY based investors.
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White papersCan EM Issuers Pay Their Debt—And Will They?
Emerging markets have been hit hard by COVID-19 but opportunities exist for investors able to navigate choppy waters. In this episode, Dr. Ricardo Adrogue assesses EM issuers’ ability to satisfy their debt obligations—and just as importantly, their willingness to do so.
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White papersInvesting during the rise of zombies: How monetary policy, COVID-19, and technology have created and sustained a horde of decomposing corporations
Amid the spectacular return of equities post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC), most equity investors have little need to focus on business models. The S&P 500 posted a 256.4% total return between 2010-2019, and global equity and credit investors were rewarded for carrying the beta exposure to those asset classes and did so often with lower-than- average levels of volatility.
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White papersThe day after #11 - Post-crisis narratives that will drive financial markets
The Covid-19 crisis has thrown up a sequence of images from the past (pandemics, wars, the Great Financial Crisis) that have pushed central banks (CB) and governments to act in unprecedented ways (in terms of magnitude and speed of action). This has defined the current ‘day after’ narrative.
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White papersRisk budgeting and trade sizing: why they matter to multi-asset portfolio construction
In the current environment of heightened uncertainty, managing a multi-asset portfolio has rarely looked as complex as it does today, especially for those investors looking for an appropriate governance model on which to take investment decisions.The issue is not only to make accurate market forecasts and formulate appropriate investment views, but also to construct an efficient portfolio based on these views within a given risk budget.
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White papersSuganomics
Japan’s new prime minister could boost fiscal and growth strategies to secure his position ahead of the next general election, with a focus on digitalization and deregulation.
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White papersInvestors Beware! Trump & Biden Agree On Something!
China’s rapid post-pandemic recovery looks tempting, but relations with the U.S. will get worse regardless of who wins the White House.
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White papersThe Meeting Room Webcast: Impact Opportunities, September 2020
Listen to the latest Federated Hermes Meeting Room: Virtual Portfolio Briefing on Impact Opportunities.
