All Emerging Market articles – Page 27
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White papersPolitics, economics and a pandemic: Equity markets under pressure
September saw profit-taking on equities amid investor concerns over COVID-19 as well as economic and political uncertainties. After rallying for five months, global equities fell. Further fiscal support measures are taking shape, but only slowly, leaving central banks to lobby for more haste.
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White papersPresident Trump’s positive COVID-19 test shakes up election, markets
President Trump announced in a tweet shortly before 1:00 a.m. on Friday October 2nd that he and the First Lady of the United States (FLOTUS) tested positive for COVID-19. We look at the potential repercussions from this dramatic news in this Q&A.
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White papersIs France still on track to reduce its competitiveness gap vs. Germany?
Germany clearly outperformed France on most macroeconomic metrics in the last two decades. Yet France has implemented many supply-side reforms since 2014. Despite the larger damage taken by France from the current Covid crisis, the lagged effect of these reforms can still help reduce the competitiveness gap with Germany after a few years. However, a key driver of medium-term relative performance will also be how both economies adapt to major “disruption”-related sectoral challenges.
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White papersJapan: Policy continuity expected under Suganomics
Striving to consolidate power with a snap election, Mr. Suga vows continuity of Abenomics and hints at additional fiscal stimulus. Domestic politics aside, we expect global factors and positioning to play a key role for Japanese equities and currency.
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White papersMacroeconomic picture - October 2020
Q3 economic rebound exceeds our expectations on GDP, prompting an upside revision to our August forecasts. Yet, the deceleration in late Q3 of several indicators is keeping us from extrapolating Q3 momentum into Q4. After some softening in 2020 H2, headline inflation will move along a gradual upward trend, stabilising around 2% from mid-2021 with possible temporary overshooting. As November 3 approaches, policymakers’ focus is shifting, with an increased risk that 2020 fiscal policy will become more diluted than expected, and with little visibility on the Phase 4 deal in particular.
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White papersHow to Repair America’s Brand
A country that seems so divided—even discounting for a heated election and a pandemic—starts to raise questions for global investors.
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White papersAdvantage Biden after the first Presidential Debate
President Donald Trump and Former Vice-President Joe Biden met yesterday in their first Presidential debate in Cleveland, Ohio. This was an important milestone in the 2020 Presidential election, and the early indications on the morning after the debate are that it has changed the trajectory of the race in Biden’s favor. For Trump, it was one of his few opportunities to change the narrative of this election and define Biden.
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White papersNo Debating the Economic Recovery
U.S. personal income fell in August as the extra unemployment benefits ended while consumer spending rose. Eyes are on the China Services PMI, which will be released next week, and chances of a new fiscal stimulus package ahead of the election are still alive, for now.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - October 2020
Back from holidays, investors are dealing with rising volatility in the equity markets and initial signs of a fall in the extreme market complacency over the last few months. After the summer overshoot, Big Tech stocks have seen a pullback and some tensions have also materialized in the US HY segment, while IG markets remained more or less flat in the last month.
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White papersScenarios Around the “Not Quite Recovery”
We’ve come a long way since March, but there’s still a long road ahead. So far, the recovery is encouraging but the permanent damage to employment remains to be seen, as does the resilience of company balance sheets.
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White papersDisruptive technology – The drivers and the challenges
Disruptive technological change will continue to proceed along multiple dimensions, through innovations in products and processes as companies harness innovations from research and development in both the commercial and academic spheres, although the two are increasingly intertwined.
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White papersThe low volatility anomaly in equity sectors – 10 years later!
A decade ago, BNP Paribas Asset Management launched the global low volatility equity strategy after undertaking proprietary research into the characteristics of low risk stocks.
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White papersWhy investors in China private equity might be missing out on most of the market
The domestic Chinese private equity market is developing faster than many international investors realise, but without the right fund structure investors may miss the best opportunities. We explain why.
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White papersUS presidential election: how it will impact US economy and financial markets
Joe Biden has enjoyed a remarkably stable lead in the national polls this year. Currrently, he is leading President Trump by 7.6%, according to our poll of polls, down from a peak of 10.4% in June. However, we believe the race is much closer, at around 50/50, with a small Biden edge
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White papersThe Biggest Threat to the Global Recovery Lies Beneath This Dome
Rising acrimony at the U.S. Capital around the Supreme Court vacancy puts stimulus at risk and hurts long-term growth prospects.
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White papersTech innovation: reaching all sectors
Companies across a range of industries are deploying innovative technologies to spark rapid growth, creating attractive investment opportunities
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White papersFour ways to pick companies that can thrive beyond crisis
A set of all-weather principles for selecting stocks that will outperform over the long term, regardless of whether economies are buoyant or set for a long grind of slow growth
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White papersJapan: all eyes on the next Prime Minister
Following an eight-year term, Shinzo Abe announced he will stand down as Prime Minister of Japan due to a deterioration in his physical health. Japan’s Topix Index dropped around 2.5% in reaction to the news on 28 August 2020, before rebounding to close the day marginally negative. In the short-term we can expect downward pressure on the domestic equity market, while the yen appreciation as a result of political uncertainty will act as positive for non-JPY based investors.
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White papersCan EM Issuers Pay Their Debt—And Will They?
Emerging markets have been hit hard by COVID-19 but opportunities exist for investors able to navigate choppy waters. In this episode, Dr. Ricardo Adrogue assesses EM issuers’ ability to satisfy their debt obligations—and just as importantly, their willingness to do so.
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White papersInvesting during the rise of zombies: How monetary policy, COVID-19, and technology have created and sustained a horde of decomposing corporations
Amid the spectacular return of equities post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC), most equity investors have little need to focus on business models. The S&P 500 posted a 256.4% total return between 2010-2019, and global equity and credit investors were rewarded for carrying the beta exposure to those asset classes and did so often with lower-than- average levels of volatility.
