All Emerging Market articles – Page 26
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White papersA few reasons why the Covid crisis may lead to less deglobalisation than thought
It is a widespread view that the Covid crisis will accelerate trade deglobalisation, including through industrial reshoring and shorter value chains. However, the most likely scenario is more complex, as trade in services may grow even more globalised, while the reshoring of manufacturing activities may run into a number of practical, yet also political, obstacles.
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White papersQ3 2020 reporting season surprised on the positive side
Q4 visibility has shrunk as new lockdown put at risk the recovery. EPS rebound should resume in 2021 given the base effect, the ramp-up of stimulus and a potential easing of containment measures alongside the progress made to curb the pandemic.
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White papersThe vaccine is a binary event for the markets, not for the economy
Since the announcements of the discovery of a very effective vaccine, first by Pfizer-BioNTech and then by Moderna and AstraZeneca, the horizon has opened up. Investors are beginning to dream of a world immune to Covid-19. But one swallow doesn’t make a spring. Many unknowns remain (see p.4) and the Covid-19 crisis will leave lasting traces in the economy going forward.
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White papersBig Tech at the crossroads…
Big Tech’s stock market performance has become more hesitant. A simple market rotation or a more durable phenomenon? With the exit from the crisis getting closer, sectors shunned during the pandemic could actually benefit from a catching-up movement. However, between its disruptive nature which is cannibalising traditional companies and interest rates which, apart from a slight increase, look set to remain durably low, Big Tech retains major advantages. Especially as its valuation is less exceptional than it seems, provided however that its profits momentum remains sustainable…
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White papersMacroeconomic picture - December 2020
United States: after a record contraction in Q2, and an extraordinary rebound in Q3, we expect a significant deceleration in Q4, influenced by the new rise in Covid-19 cases and given the signs of a progressive deceleration in several economic and behavioral indicators. Next year’s growth outlook remains supported by the supportive mix of monetary and fiscal policy.
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White papersA Heartfelt Thanksgiving
We emerge from the holiday hopeful for a Season of Goodwill in markets, but ready for any last surprises that 2020 might have in store.
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White papersEmerging market giants step up
The Covid-19 pandemic has ravaged economies worldwide. Weak infrastructure and healthcare systems, dependence on commodities and tourism for income, and high debt loads have left emerging markets suffering disproportionately.
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White papersEmerging woes
China and India are jostling for greater geopolitical influence, within the emerging world and beyond. Their ambitions are manifold. For instance, China aims to lead the world in AI technology, India to take China’s manufacturing mantle. But over the long run, they won’t achieve their aims through armed conflict on some high Himalayan glacier.
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White papersCovid, a stepping stone to fixing climate change
The world stands to lose nearly half of its potential economic output by the end of the century. That’s the shortfall we face if we fail to make further progress on climate change.
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White papersTechnology: One World, Two Systems
In this issue of Trends Reinforced, Chetan Sehgal explains why the global pandemic and US-China rivalry has driven demand for greater resilience and security of supply chains.
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White papersA New APAC Trading Partnership
The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) stands in contrast to the recent deglobalisation trend.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - December 2020
As we approach year-end, markets can count on two pieces of news to propel some optimism. The first comes from the US, where the Biden victory, without a real Blue Wave, is seen by markets as the best possible outcome.
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White papers2021 Investment Outlook - Market rotations in an uneven recovery
The Covid-19 pandemic drove an unprecedented collapse in economic activity in H1, which was followed by a desynchronized rebound. The recovery phase has been uneven, with the virus cycle dictating the sequence of it. We believe that the damage to the global economy will last well beyond 2021. Output and personal income losses, the rise of inequality and the disruption in some sectors will be the legacies of the pandemic. Expecting that a vaccine will cause these to dissipate within a few months is too optimistic.
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White papersSchroder Institutional Investor Study 2020: Investors back private assets despite Covid-19 uncertainty
Schroders’ latest Institutional Investor Study indicates that even with most investors expecting a looming global economic slowdown to impact returns, they expect their allocations to private assets will continue to rise.
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White papers2021 Outlook: The Uneven Recovery
Listen as Barings’ portfolio managers and investment professionals discuss the cyclical and structural trends expected to shape public and private markets in 2021 & beyond.
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White papersStructural Trends Supporting Asian Equities
There are a number of supportive structural trends shaping the opportunity in Asian equities, many of which—perhaps counterintuitively—have been amplified by the pandemic and U.S.-China trade tensions.
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White papersEmerging Market Debt: A Wider Range Of Opportunities, And Challenges, In 2021
Reasons to consider emerging-market debt from Nicholas Hardingham.
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White papersLocking Down to Speed Opening Up
November’s U.S. and E.U. flash PMIs may begin to teeter, and initial claims could show initial signs of greater layoffs as more shutdowns are enacted across the Western world. The vaccines present compelling data as Phase 3 trials show strong efficacies for preventing infections.
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White papersChina 2021 Outlook: Pandemic Fuels Momentum For De-Globalization, What’s Next?
The coronavirus sharpened the divide between China and the rest of the world in some aspects, according to Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity’s Chetan Sehgal and Michael Lai.
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White papersU.S. Elections 2020: Polarized is the new normal
The U.S. election polls have been packed up, the votes have been tallied and a winner has been declared. At this point, during most other election years, the U.S. would be transitioning to the next government, but this is proving to be an unconventional period. While there is little doubt that President-Elect Joe Biden will accede to the White House, some senior Republicans have so far refused to acknowledge his win. This standoff reflects how fractious the American political environment is today.
