All Emerging Market articles – Page 26
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White papersDon’t Forget the Winners & Losers that Weren’t on the Ballot
Beyond all the victorious and defeated candidates, the U.S. election marked some fresh directions that investors need to watch.
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White papersSpecial Edition: The U.S. Votes: Our First Response
The U.S. has voted in the midst of arguably the most challenging environment for generations. Here’s our first take on the likely result and what it could mean for investors.
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White papersUS election: no winner yet, markets moving from a Blue Wave to a possible Trump trade
At the time of writing, the result remains unclear and prudence is needed as the race is close Biden 238 - Trump 213 (270 to win).We expect an 85% likelihood of knowing the winner within ten days. The winner of the election is likely to be determined sometimes during the next few days as three battleground states, Michigan, Pennsylvania (6 November: deadline for mail-in ballots to be received in Pennsylvania) and Wisconsin, complete the long process of counting large numbers of ballots that were sent by mail as a result of Covid-19.
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White papersAddressing the legacy of the crisis in the EM: the right policy mix in an uneven recovery
The duration of the epidemic will ultimately determine the shape of recovery. An uneven recovery and subdued inflation (barring any persistent supply shock) will call for a prolonged accommodative policy mix, in either monetary or fiscal policy. The merger of the two has to be careful monitored in emerging markets.
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White papersMacroeconomic picture - November 2020
The US economy rebounded in Q3, exceeding our expectations and leading to a further upside revision of our 2020 GDP forecasts. However, given the signs of a progressive deceleration in several economic and behavioural indicators, influenced by the new rise in Covid-19 cases, we are more cautious about the speed at which the economy will enter 2021.
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White papersBrexit Means Brexit: But What Could that Mean for Portfolios?
As of the 31st of January of this year, Brexit went into effect per the vote cast on the 23rd of June back in 2016. With the added element of the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated economic implications, how should global investors be thinking in our view as we approach 2021?
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White papersCorporate ESG News and the Stock Market
ESG investing’s popularity has continually increased in the past five years. ESG data is increasingly integrated into investment processes. However, the information contained in ESG-related news for corporates has not been entirely exploited by institutional and long-only investors.
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook - Q4 2020
With a sharp market recovery since early in the pandemic, spreads on many fixed income securities have narrowed to close to pre-crisis lows. Economies are generally regaining strength, but their trajectory could be heavily influenced by the coronavirus, the potential for vaccines and political uncertainty.
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White papersThe Four U.S. Election Scenarios with Erik Knutzen
As we approach the 2020 U.S. election and its upcoming result, Erik Knutzen, CIO—Multi-Asset Class, dives into the possible scenarios and discusses the economic implications of what could happen with each hypothetical outcome.
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White papersAsset Class Return Forecasts - Q4 2020
As noted in our previous reports the much-awaited global recovery from the onset of Covid-19 is facing significant headwinds. As the fallout from the crisis becomes clearer in scope and view, ensuing challenges remain daunting. The interplay between the factors will continue to evolve having an effect in the short and medium-term, the monitoring of these relationships will remain at the forefront of future communications.
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White papersAnything But 20-20 Vision…
Advanced estimates show easing of COVID restrictions led U.S. GDP to soar as second waves have hit Europe and new government restrictions are being implemented. U.S. Election Day is Tuesday; watch Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina—key swing states that may indicate the winner.
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White papersOutlook Upgraded, But Still Not in First Class…
The IMF upgraded their 2020 growth outlook due to better-than-anticipated U.S. and euro area 2Q20 GDP, but noted a long and uneven recovery. Global flash PMIs will likely show differentiation by region next week, and Brexit negotiations are expected to continue into November.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - November 2020
Developments on the virus and vaccine front and the US election are hot topics. Markets are pricing in a glass-half-full scenario, despite the still-alarming infection numbers on the virus front (second wave in Europe and record new cases globally). The interconnection of the three cycles — virus, real economy and financial — continues, but the virus transmission mechanism is changing.
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White papersThe “Not Quite” Recovery Meets the Second Wave
The recovery this summer was vibrant. Cheap credit and accumulated savings were used to satisfy pent-up demand, resulting in strong activity. U.S. consumers are showing up; the EU governments keep having the economy’s back; and in Asia, economies are full steam ahead.
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White papersElection countdown: A Trump opening after the final Presidential debate?
President Donald Trump and Former Vice President Joe Biden met in Nashville, Tennessee on Thursday 23 October for the final presidential debate. This is an important milestone in the campaign, and early indications the morning after the debate are that while both camps felt proud of their performance, it may persuade some undecided and GOP-leaning independent voters back to the Trump fold.
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White papersMoving the Needle
The U.S. election will be big news in November, but news on coronavirus vaccines will probably “move the needle” more for markets.
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White papersChoosing Trump or Biden
Investors will benefit from supportive policy under either outcome, but the impact on specific industries is much harder to predict.
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White papersPositioning for the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election: An Update
Undeniably, 2020 has been an eventful year and the fireworks are likely not yet over. Amidst rising COVID-19 infections and a stuttering economic recovery, investors are preparing for the U.S. Presidential election. While this election may be one of the most contentious in U.S. history, investors should remember that that once the elections pass, much of this noise typically quiets and risk assets are able to resume a trajectory dictated by fundamentals.
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White papersMarking UN Day
As a leader in sustainability and investment, on UN Day we’re supporting companies’ efforts to build back better from the pandemic and create a positive societal and environmental impact.
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White papersWhen the chips are down: the outlook for semiconductors
After a challenging 2019, the semiconductor manufacturing sector was placed under even more pressure by the exogenous shock of the coronavirus pandemic. Yet the industry has staged an impressive recovery and our Global Emerging Markets team retains a positive long-term view on the sector, arguing that technology trends will quickly reheat any cooling demand for global chips.
