All Emerging Market articles – Page 25
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White papersThe Election Is Finally Here: But What Does It Mean?
How will the election shift U.S. economic policy? Will Biden reshape American infrastructure, energy production and healthcare? How does a second Trump term differ from his first? The Investment Institute hosted public and private markets investors to examine the November 3 vote.
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White papersFrance Outlook
In Q3 France posted a major surprise, with its 18.2% QoQ rise in GDP beating both consensus and our expectations, and leaving the French economy only about 4.0% below pre-Covid levels. But with the second wave and the new lockdown taking a toll on activity and sentiment, we now expect a new contraction of 3.3% QoQ in Q4. This will be followed by a slow and uneven recovery, which will reach full traction only from Q2 2021, when we assume restrictions will be fully lifted. In the meantime, a ‘stop and go’ process may take place, making the recovery path bumpier and more uncertain.
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White papersMicrofinance: why grass roots EM investing has proved resilient
As the pandemic unfolded, concerns arose that it could be crippling for some emerging markets, but many have been surprisingly robust. The microfinance experts at BlueOrchard explain why.
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White papers2020 post-election analysis: Biden wins, but the United States remains divided
Former Vice President Joe Biden defeated President Trump to become the 46th President of the United States. While Trump has not conceded yet, he became only the third President to fail to win re-election since World War II. In the end, the election was a referendum on Trump as a man rather than an indictment of his policies. A political realignment is underway, with GOP emerging as a working-class party and dominating the vote in rural areas, while the ‘Blue wall’ of the Midwestern states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin has become competitive for both parties.
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White papersAn Election Update and Market Outlook with Joe Amato
Stephanie Luedke, Head of Private Wealth Management leads a discussion with Joseph V. Amato, President and Chief Investment Officer – Equities for an update on the U.S. election and the markets after a historic week.
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White papersAn Election Update and Market Outlook with Charles Kantor
Given the uncertainty of the political landscape, Charles Kantor, Neuberger Berman Equity Portfolio Manager, shares his perspective on investment implications as a result of the U.S. election.
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White papersDon’t Forget the Winners & Losers that Weren’t on the Ballot
Beyond all the victorious and defeated candidates, the U.S. election marked some fresh directions that investors need to watch.
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White papersSpecial Edition: The U.S. Votes: Our First Response
The U.S. has voted in the midst of arguably the most challenging environment for generations. Here’s our first take on the likely result and what it could mean for investors.
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White papersUS election: no winner yet, markets moving from a Blue Wave to a possible Trump trade
At the time of writing, the result remains unclear and prudence is needed as the race is close Biden 238 - Trump 213 (270 to win).We expect an 85% likelihood of knowing the winner within ten days. The winner of the election is likely to be determined sometimes during the next few days as three battleground states, Michigan, Pennsylvania (6 November: deadline for mail-in ballots to be received in Pennsylvania) and Wisconsin, complete the long process of counting large numbers of ballots that were sent by mail as a result of Covid-19.
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White papersAddressing the legacy of the crisis in the EM: the right policy mix in an uneven recovery
The duration of the epidemic will ultimately determine the shape of recovery. An uneven recovery and subdued inflation (barring any persistent supply shock) will call for a prolonged accommodative policy mix, in either monetary or fiscal policy. The merger of the two has to be careful monitored in emerging markets.
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White papersMacroeconomic picture - November 2020
The US economy rebounded in Q3, exceeding our expectations and leading to a further upside revision of our 2020 GDP forecasts. However, given the signs of a progressive deceleration in several economic and behavioural indicators, influenced by the new rise in Covid-19 cases, we are more cautious about the speed at which the economy will enter 2021.
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White papersBrexit Means Brexit: But What Could that Mean for Portfolios?
As of the 31st of January of this year, Brexit went into effect per the vote cast on the 23rd of June back in 2016. With the added element of the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated economic implications, how should global investors be thinking in our view as we approach 2021?
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White papersCorporate ESG News and the Stock Market
ESG investing’s popularity has continually increased in the past five years. ESG data is increasingly integrated into investment processes. However, the information contained in ESG-related news for corporates has not been entirely exploited by institutional and long-only investors.
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook - Q4 2020
With a sharp market recovery since early in the pandemic, spreads on many fixed income securities have narrowed to close to pre-crisis lows. Economies are generally regaining strength, but their trajectory could be heavily influenced by the coronavirus, the potential for vaccines and political uncertainty.
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White papersThe Four U.S. Election Scenarios with Erik Knutzen
As we approach the 2020 U.S. election and its upcoming result, Erik Knutzen, CIO—Multi-Asset Class, dives into the possible scenarios and discusses the economic implications of what could happen with each hypothetical outcome.
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White papersAsset Class Return Forecasts - Q4 2020
As noted in our previous reports the much-awaited global recovery from the onset of Covid-19 is facing significant headwinds. As the fallout from the crisis becomes clearer in scope and view, ensuing challenges remain daunting. The interplay between the factors will continue to evolve having an effect in the short and medium-term, the monitoring of these relationships will remain at the forefront of future communications.
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White papersAnything But 20-20 Vision…
Advanced estimates show easing of COVID restrictions led U.S. GDP to soar as second waves have hit Europe and new government restrictions are being implemented. U.S. Election Day is Tuesday; watch Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina—key swing states that may indicate the winner.
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White papersOutlook Upgraded, But Still Not in First Class…
The IMF upgraded their 2020 growth outlook due to better-than-anticipated U.S. and euro area 2Q20 GDP, but noted a long and uneven recovery. Global flash PMIs will likely show differentiation by region next week, and Brexit negotiations are expected to continue into November.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - November 2020
Developments on the virus and vaccine front and the US election are hot topics. Markets are pricing in a glass-half-full scenario, despite the still-alarming infection numbers on the virus front (second wave in Europe and record new cases globally). The interconnection of the three cycles — virus, real economy and financial — continues, but the virus transmission mechanism is changing.
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White papersThe “Not Quite” Recovery Meets the Second Wave
The recovery this summer was vibrant. Cheap credit and accumulated savings were used to satisfy pent-up demand, resulting in strong activity. U.S. consumers are showing up; the EU governments keep having the economy’s back; and in Asia, economies are full steam ahead.
