The vaccine is a binary event for the markets, not for the economy

Since the announcements of the discovery of a very effective vaccine, first by Pfizer-BioNTech and then by Moderna and AstraZeneca, the horizon has opened up. Investors are beginning to dream of a world immune to Covid-19. But one swallow doesn’t make a spring. Many unknowns remain (see p.4) and the Covid-19 crisis will leave lasting traces in the economy going forward.