All Commentary articles
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White papers
Macroeconomic and financial market forecasts - May 2024
Monthly Cross Asset - Macroeconomic and financial market forecasts
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White papers
Modeling Direct and Indirect Climate-related Physical Risks
This paper addresses the methodological challenges in quantifying physical risks associated with climate change, proposing a novel top-down stochastic approach focused on modeling financial losses from extreme events. Unlike existing studies limited to specific events, our approach utilizes predefined climate sensitivity parameters, enabling a broader application across various extreme events using the example of tropical cyclones.
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White papers
Paradigm shift: market snapshot
Stronger-than-forecast US economic reads and hawkish comments from the US Federal Reserve have brought rate-cut hopes crashing to earth.
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White papers
Opportunities at the longer end of the commercial paper curve?
Federated Hermes’ Short Term Investments Committee of portfolio managers meets on a monthly basis to provide insights, strategise, and discuss investment opportunities across the short end of the yield curve.
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White papers
SDG Engagement Equity Q1 2024 case study
Our Q1 case study looks at Chicago-headquartered bank Wintrust Financial and its efforts to support the credit needs of low- and moderate-income neighbourhoods in the Chicago area; in so doing helping to reduce the number of ‘unbanked’ households in the US.
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White papers
Geopolitical risk will grow: here is how we track it
In order to better understand geopolitical trends, Amundi has developed the Geopolitical Sentiment Tracker (GST). The tool aims to inform the investment process: it includes a variety of datapoints allowing investors and researchers to better understand and be alerted to rising risks. It also allows our teams to identify opportunities.
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Podcast
What’s Up in the Air?
As you may have seen in the headlines, the airline sector has seen quite their fair share of volatility recently. Since the start of COVID shutting down air travel to then returning back to pre-pandemic levels and then exceeding those levels, the airline sector has been receiving its own fair share of market turbulence.
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White papers
Deep waves: The demographic wave—the tide is going out
For investors, demographics are a driver of country risk, and they can impact productivity, economic growth, sovereign financials and debt ratings. Demographics are not destiny, but they do set parameters. Find out more from Franklin Templeton Institute’s Kim Catechis.
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White papers
All back to bonds?
While 2023 arguably marked the comeback of bonds, there’s no guarantee this trend will continue in 2024. And as the latest Natixis research points out, uncertainties over growth prospects and inflation levels, and hence over the timing and scale of central bank rate cuts in 2024, are prompting bond investors to exercise caution.
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White papers
Disruptive Technology Views: Why public—not private—blockchains truly enable Web3 and decentralized finance
In this issue of Disruptive Technology Views, we explore the advantages of public blockchains versus the disadvantages of private blockchains and outline the benefits of decentralized finance over traditional finance as they relate to the security lending markets.
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White papers
What is making the gold market run so hot?
An intriguing recent development in financial markets is the surge in gold prices. It is particularly striking given that gold did little to protect investors from the effects of accelerating inflation over the past two years. So why rally now? A complex interplay of known and potentially unknown factors makes the gold rally fascinating to analyse – and we focus on the metal in this week’s Simply put.
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White papers
Fixed Income Outlook – Not as planned
Another higher-than-expected US inflation number means the US Federal Reserve should be in no rush to cut rates before price pressures subside. With the risk of inflation continuing to surprise to the upside in the near term, we now expect benchmark 10-year yields to potentially retrace to 4.75%, at which point we would likely again go overweight duration.
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White papers
India: Unlocking the potential
In this latest Global Macro Shifts, India offers new economic and investment advantages, as both long-term reforms and recent, post-pandemic changes in the global economy combine fortuitously, according to Templeton Global Macro.
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White papers
Asset Allocation Committee Outlook 2Q 2024
“The economic outlook may have improved, but large parts of the credit and equity markets are already priced for a soft landing.”
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White papers
Schroders Capital Investment Outlook: Real Estate H1 2024
We explore the fundamentals underpinning our expectations and views, our conviction themes, the investment strategies benefitting from them, and how we are seeking to position portfolios for outperformance.
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White papers
Mapping global elections and what this means for investors
It’s a defining 12 months for the world we live in today and wake up to tomorrow as billions of people across more than 50 countries head to the polls in 2024, although not all national elections will be free and fair. Romil Patel looks at some of the key votes from the world’s oldest to its largest democracies, as well as emerging markets – and what this means for investors.
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White papers
Clean Energy – Cyclical Opportunity For Long-Term Investments
Investments in clean energies have rarely been more attractive. The urgent need to tackle climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. Both the public and political decision-makers are well aware of the environmental challenges.
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White papers
Macroeconomic and financial market forecasts - April 2024
Macroeconomic forecasts as of 12 April 2024
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White papers
Cross Asset Investment Strategy - April 2024
”Market sentiment may remain positive if we don’t see an economic slowdown and inflation also doesn’t surprise. However, areas of excess have built up, and underscore the need to remain vigilant.”