All United States articles – Page 38
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White papersThe Uncertainty May Be Worse Than the Slowdown
We do think the onset of recession is a time to tread carefully, but it could also be a time of opportunity for equity investors.
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White papersHawks Are Gaining Speed
Here come the rate hikes. The upward surprise in euro area inflation and Jay Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole confirmed the ECB and Fed are both likely looking at 75bp hikes this month, and markets increased expectations as a result. Meanwhile, China reacts to new lockdown measures.
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White papersAre we entering the zone of oversold credit?
With the Aperture Investors SICAV - Credit Opportunities Fund reaching its three year anniversary this August, Simon Thorp looks ahead and explains why long credit stands out in the current environment.
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White papersQ2 2022 U.S. Research Perspective
“History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, But It Often Rhymes” - Mark Twain
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VideoVideo: Slowing growth sparks recession concerns - Alex Joiner
IFM’s Chief Economist, Alex Joiner, features in our Monthly Economic Update video discussing recent key developments in economies and markets globally.
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White papersSuspension of US-China climate talks puts global efforts at risk
Just as the US passed the USD 430 billion Inflation Reduction Act to tackle climate change among other major issues, China has suspended Sino-US collaboration on global warming. Details are not yet available, but the impact on global de-carbonisation could be substantial, especially if last November’s Joint Glasgow Declaration by the world’s largest CO2 emitters is at stake.
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White papersInfrastructure – rising rates and the “natural hedge”
Inflation has accelerated globally as a result of consumer demand, fuelled by fiscal policy, pushing into supply constraints due to COVID-19 and geopolitical upheaval. US inflation is running at 40-year highs and other advanced economies are at or near similar extremes.
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White papersThe wages of fear
With new US regulations and EU due diligence rules coming down the track, companies will need to work harder at identifying human rights risks in their supply chains. How do we engage with companies on this challenging issue?
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White papersESG Materiality, Q3 2022
Tough new US and EU regulations, and pressures related to the cost of living and the Covid-19 pandemic, are forcing companies to scrutinise their supply chains. In the latest ESG Materiality newsletter, we look at the implications for emerging markets.
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White papersAMN Healthcare: Engagement commentary
As the leading healthcare staffing company in the US, AMN has the ability to lead the healthcare industry on the issue of gender pay.
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White papersU.S. Property Fundamentals Steady Amid Heightened Uncertainty
While tighter monetary conditions weigh on economic growth and inflation, U.S. property fundamentals remain stable—and secular demand trends continue to drive value creation over the long term. The Barings Real Estate team discusses.
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White papersEmerging market debt: Looking for opportunities in challenging circumstances
Persistently high global inflation has forced the world’s leading central banks to start tightening monetary policy. However, the prices of many of the most vulnerable emerging market bond issuers are now quoted close to – and in some cases lower – than their expected recovery value.
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PodcastSDGs: A Framework for Investing
Since the inception of the United Nations’ 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015, there has been a universal call to action to ensure peace and prosperity across the UN’s 193 member states by 2030.
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White papersEquity market downturn: The path forward
In the post-Volcker era, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has typically exhibited a vigilant approach to fighting inflation. Whenever labor market tightness appeared and inflation was beginning to approach its target rate of 2% Core PCE, the Fed would often spring into action with rate hikes. This cycle, however, has been unique, with the Federal Reserve instead permitting inflation pressures to build-up rather than promptly stamping them out.
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White papersRecession Semantics
Whether the U.S. is actually in a recession is debatable, but high inflation will affect companies both positively and negatively.
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White papersJuly 26-27 FOMC Review: Maintaining a Hawkish Course
The Federal Reserve hiked the fed funds rate by 75bp to 2.25-2.50%, the second consecutive 75bp rate hike. The Fed rate decision was widely expected. With today’s rate hike, the fed funds rate is within the 2 to 3% range of estimates of the long-term “neutral” rate. However, as Chair Powell reminded us during his press conference, policy needs to go beyond neutral into restrictive territory this year in order to reduce inflation.
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White papersRising rents matter more to REITs than rising rates
Despite the prospect of near-term volatility, REITs are well positioned to help mitigate higher interest rates, sticky inflation and challenging economic conditions, in our opinion.
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White papersWill the Fed’s QT Trigger a Financial Crisis as Growth Slows?
The outlook for Quantitative Tightening will likely depend on the Fed’s commitment to the tool, and, at the first sign of trouble, it may be quick to course correct.
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White papersCan “Friendshoring” Replace the G-20?
Any vision of closer commercial integration among U.S. allies and partners must be as inclusive as possible.
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White papers*Mid-year outlook takeaways – Chronicle of a recession foretold*
Investor surveys, and now the US yield curve, indicate a high likelihood of a recession in the US. The question seems not whether there will be a recession, but when. Economist forecasts and earnings growth estimates, however, suggest a recession is not so certain. With growth already slowing more quickly than expected, markets are assuming central banks will not hike policy rates as much as was thought. But inflation may not fall enough to make that possible.
