Italy: no short-term confrontation with the EU, but uncertainty in the mid-term.

In the new forecasts for the 2020 budget and beyond from the Italian government (from the latest economic blueprint, of 9 April: “The Stability and Growth Path, SGP”), its economic projections come much closer to consensus than previous ones, pointing to weaker GDP growth.

With regard to GDP growth, baseline projections forecast an 0.1% year-on-year expansion in 2019, but the Italian government expects growth of an estimated 0.2% for 2019 as the two recent Law Decrees (the so-called “growth decree” and “unlock Italy decree” are both being converted into law) take effect.

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