All Strategies articles – Page 24
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White papersTokens, Power, Non-Jobs and Debasement: The case for strategic allocation to tokens
This essay considers the role of tokens and crypto assets as investments. However, rather than just address this question within the narrow confines of investment theory, we approach it via the broader social and political role of tokens. Their growing acceptance raises questions on how the nature of money is changing.
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White papersLDI market review and outlook – February 2025, political risks clash with bond vigilantism
Political and monetary policy uncertainty weighed upon markets in the fourth quarter of 2024, with multiple ‘live’ central bank meetings creating binary risk and political regime change for France, Germany, and vitally, the US.
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White papersNo Need to Stress About Less Distressed
Following the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008, the distressed credit landscape has been substantially reshaped by regulatory changes, shifts in economic cycles and the growing influence of alternative investment strategies. This article explains why the economic and market trends of the past 15 years mean outright distress has become rarer and asks, are there other areas of the credit markets where insurers can look for a similar return profile?
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White papersScenarios, risks and macroeconomic forecasts
Main and alternative scenarios, and Macroeconomic forecasts as of 24 January
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White papersCore Matters: AI Winning and losing countries
Our Core Matters series provides thematic research on macro, investment, and insurance topics
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PodcastOuterblue RI – Driving Climate Action through Shareholder Engagement
In the second episode of our five-part series on Shareholder Stewardship, Aaron McDougall, Head of Climate & Ciaran Callaghan, Head of European Equity Research engage in a dynamic conversation on shareholder engagement on climate - linking climate engagements to responsible investors financial considerations.
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White papersMarket Update: Geopolitics, Rare Minerals, and the Polar Silk Road
Donald Trump is back as the President of the United States and has quickly implemented controversial policies that challenge the global order and traditional conventions. Among the many eye-catching headlines Trump has expressed desires to annex Greenland and the Panama Canal and has even suggested that Canada become the 51st American state.
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White papers2025 Emerging market debt outlook: Stick to income and relative value in a disruptive year
As 2024 is now behind us, we are reflecting on a year of political and geopolitical upheaval which culminated in the election of Donald Trump in the U.S., whose disruptive agenda hangs over emerging market (EM) investors’ heads. In this outlook, we flesh out our current view of the world, as seen from an EM lens, and highlight a few key investment themes.
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White papersStrategy Outlook: Unified Global Alternatives - Hedge Funds First Quarter 2025
Unified Global Alternatives Hedge Funds (UGA HF) Broad Based Diversified (BBD) and Broad Based Neutral (BBN) portfolios generated positive results in Q4, experiencing profits across our four main strategies (Equity Hedged, Trading, Credit / Income, and Relative Value).
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White papersFinding Growth in US Stocks Beyond the Technology Sector
Technology stocks have been the poster child for growth in recent years. Other sectors deserve a closer look today.
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White papersWhen Does the Cutting Cycle Become an Easing Cycle?
Over the past years, the Federal Reserve’s rate-hiking cycle has been unique, marked by looser financial conditions, termed “the hiking cycle that was not a tightening”. Currently, we are witnessing “a cutting cycle that is not an easing“ with financial conditions tightening despite rate cuts, affecting future growth outlooks and posing risks for investors.
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White papersArtificial intelligence – Still positive after the sell-off
In the week ending 24 January, a previously unknown Chinese start-up presented an artificial intelligence large language model apparently showing a performance comparable to that of the leading US models. The unexpected development could disrupt the paradigm of a quasi-monopolistic position for leading US chip manufacturer. This concern led to a major fall in valuations of some prominent tech companies. Markets have since recovered most of their poise. Here we give our view on these developments.
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White papersNotes From the Road: Investor Views at the Start of ‘25
We started this year by engaging in discussions with a large number of CIOs and allocators. In this short note, we reflect on key common messages that came out of those discussions, points of consensus and important open questions for the outlook.
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White papersA Choppy Start to a Year of Uncertainties
The first two weeks of 2025 perfectly illustrate why we see a wide dispersion of potential outcomes for the year, and advocate staying nimble and diversified.
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White papersPrivate Equity and Rates, Part I: The Theoretical Framework
Why we think declining rates should raise private equity valuations, and help unblock deal activity and fund distributions.
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White papersAsset Allocation Committee Outlook, 1Q 2025 - A Delicate Balance
“Overall, we anticipate a supportive backdrop for risk assets, as reflected in our broad asset-class views… The balance is delicate, however, and the risks are piled up on both sides.”
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White papersBrightening Capex: A Value Tailwind?
Global industrial activity appears to be gathering steam, potentially spurring capital expenditures, which could favor value stocks and small caps.
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White papersHow Chinese companies craft their own future
Excerpts from the “China outlook 2025” session at the Greater China Conference 2025
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White papersHedge Fund Outlook H1 2025
HF to lure more interest after a strong 2024 vintage for alpha
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White papersTrump’s first 100 days: Five policies shaping markets in 2025
With an ambitious policy agenda, President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office will provide an early indication of his ability to sustain momentum in delivering on his promises. Wasting no time, Trump has unleashed a whirlwind of executive actions across a variety of policy focus areas, though many are likely to be challenged in court.
