All Research & Forecasting articles
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White papersEssential Housing Research Perspective Q1 2026
The essential housing sector posted positive, albeit modest, performance in the first quarter of 2026.
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White papersCRE’s recovery masks a widening divide
The CRE recovery remains intact, but the headline obscures an increasingly uneven landscape. A 144 basis point spread between the top and bottom quartiles of NPI returns in 1Q26 underscores the extent of this divergence. With limited scope for further cap rate compression, NOI growth is likely to be the primary driver of returns this cycle. For the first time in 30 years, alpha will likely be earned, not given, through disciplined property and market selection paired with operational execution.
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Research ReportResilient U.S. transaction volumes: +15% YoY in May
Real Capital Analytics’ newest data shows U.S. commercial real estate transaction volumes increasing, with headline volumes rising +15% YoY to $42bn. Equally notable, April 2026 was revised meaningfully higher, narrowing that month’s YoY decline to -14%, from -33% previously. As a result, 2Q26-to-date volumes now stand at +0.8% YoY, and YTD volumes are tracking ~20% ahead of the same period last year.
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White papersAsia Pacific real estate outlook – Edition June 2026
Uncertainty tightens its grip on markets
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White papersGlobal real estate outlook – Edition June 2026
Middle East conflict is creating uncertainty
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White papersNew Logistics Demand Drivers offset Impact from Iran Conflict
Regardless of short-term cost pressures from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the long-term prime European logistics recovery is forecasted to withstand its effects and stay on track. Potential upside might come as occupiers switch their focus from just-in-time to just-in-case approach by adding more space to facilitate higher inventories.
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White papers2026 Mid-Year European Outlook: European Real Estate Recovery Can Withstand Pressure From Middle East Conflict
The conflict in the Middle East retains centre stage. Regardless of its short-term pressures, the long term prime European real estate recovery is forecasted to withstand its effects and stay on track with solid current income yields and projected rental growth offering resilience over our 5-year horizon.
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White papersModeling and Forecasting of Large Unbalanced Option Implied Volatility Surfaces
Forecasting the option implied volatility (IV) surface is difficult with standard time-series models because of its time-varying granularity. We propose a new two-step real-time sequential forecasting framework. The first step fits the daily surface and can accommodate any underlying specification for option prices or IVs, including dynamic option-pricing models, nonparametric methods, and machine-learning techniques. In the second step, we sequentially estimate a dynamic IV model using an updating rule.
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White papersThe infrastructure growth engine: Creating tomorrow’s core infrastructure today
Long-term structural trends – including deglobalisation, decarbonisation and digitalisation – are broadening the infrastructure asset class. Core infrastructure assets increasingly attract networks of essential businesses that provide mission-critical equipment and services. Meanwhile other businesses have also entered the market to plug crucial gaps in supply chains and capitalise on opportunities created by new technologies, changing demographics and aging infrastructure.
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White papersUnlocking nature-based solutions with mitigation banking
As ecological degradation increasingly affects economic systems, nature-based solutions are gaining attention as potential investment opportunities. Mitigation banking, a market-based framework for ecosystem restoration, offers investors a structured approach to participating in nature loss solutions. With nearly $4 billion in annual revenue and three decades of regulatory stability, U.S. ecosystem restoration markets may provide entry points for investors seeking portfolio diversification alongside environmental impact. Find out more.
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White papersStepping up a gear: Top 10 questions on real estate markets in 2026
2025 was a year of significant uncertainty, fueling recessionary fears and caution in investing. Global economic and geopolitical uncertainty led to market volatility. This year, we begin by reviewing the impact and how the real estate market is being affected.
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White papersInfrastructure equity Q&A: Uniting innovation and rigour
Angenika Kunne outlines Aviva Investors’ infrastructure equity strategy and the key themes driving origination, management and value creation.
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White papersPrivate real estate lending: Why it’s growing
Private lender activity in US commercial real estate (CRE) has rebounded more sharply than the overall market, nearly doubling its pre-pandemic share of loan originations.
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White papersWhy and Where to Invest in European Real Estate
As 2026 has started, we provide a reminder and update on the reasons for investing into European real estate and identify the specific markets where we believe the best risk-adjusted returns can be expected.
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White papersRetail’s rebound: The case for selective, institutional conviction
Retail real estate is stabilizing after years of disruption, with well-located, experience-driven assets showing resilience - making selectivity and institutional discipline key to capturing recovery upside.
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White papersUnlocking natural capital value
Institutional investors seeking resilient, future‑ready portfolios are turning to timberland and farmland—strategic assets that combine climate resilience, biodiversity, and long‑term value creation.
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White papersForests as a strategic investment
Wood is an important economic resource. Due to the growing middle class worldwide, there is increasing structural demand for wood. In this context, forests are becoming an attractive investment, ensuring long-term strategic access to wood in times of geopolitical uncertainty.
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White papers2026 Real Estate Market Outlook
The headwinds encountered for real estate investment over the last few years seem to be receding. Compared to the beginning of 2025, interest rates are lower, real estate liquidity is improving, the economy is growing, and new construction is decelerating materially.
