All Research & Forecasting articles
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White papersRe-imagining value-add real estate: How energy is reshaping European logistics
The energy transition is creating a growing convergence between infrastructure and real estate investing. While infrastructure investment focuses on expanding and decarbonising energy supply, improving the efficiency of existing buildings addresses the other side of the equation by reducing demand. As energy costs rise and power becomes increasingly constrained, reducing energy demand is creating a new source of value within real estate.
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White papersLooking Through the Noise: Conviction Returning?
The respite from the Middle East conflict proved short-lived. Interest rates remained elevated during the fragile ceasefire and have moved slightly higher as hostilities resumed. Energy price shocks and their inflationary impact are expected to persist through the rest of 2026…
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White papersGrowth is Fundamental
The U.S. economy continues to expand at a moderate pace despite geopolitical uncertainty, trade friction, and renewed inflation pressure. The key story remains the AI-led investment cycle, which is now an important driver of business spending and broader economic activity.
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White papersU.S. Real Estate Sector Report
Stay ahead in real estate with our U.S. sector report. Discover market trends, sector performance, and future forecast now.
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White papersEurope Real Estate Sector Report
Navigate the complexities of the real estate market with our Europe sector report. Key outlooks and conditions at your fingertips
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White papersThe next chapter for global office
The global office market is moving past its post-pandemic malaise and is engaged in the early stages of recovery. Leasing activity is improving, transaction markets are beginning to reopen, credit is increasingly available, and capital values are stabilizing across a growing number of markets.
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White papers2026 Full Year Results
We use our expertise to access, deploy, manage and invest equity to create value and generate superior returns for our investor customers
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White papers2Q26 U.S. Transaction Volumes Rise +14% YoY
Real Capital Analytics’ newest data shows U.S. commercial real estate transaction volumes increased in 2Q26, with headline volumes rising +14% YoY to $136.6bn. This represents the ninth consecutive quarter of rising YoY transaction volumes and may help to alleviate concerns of a slowdown given an uncertain macro backdrop.
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White papersA quantitative framework for estimating CRE cycles
The commercial real estate market is at or near a cyclical trough and transitioning into an early-cycle recovery phase, and history says what comes next is long and durable.
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White papersEssential Housing Research Perspective Q1 2026
The essential housing sector posted positive, albeit modest, performance in the first quarter of 2026.
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White papersCRE’s recovery masks a widening divide
The CRE recovery remains intact, but the headline obscures an increasingly uneven landscape. A 144 basis point spread between the top and bottom quartiles of NPI returns in 1Q26 underscores the extent of this divergence. With limited scope for further cap rate compression, NOI growth is likely to be the primary driver of returns this cycle. For the first time in 30 years, alpha will likely be earned, not given, through disciplined property and market selection paired with operational execution.
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Research ReportResilient U.S. transaction volumes: +15% YoY in May
Real Capital Analytics’ newest data shows U.S. commercial real estate transaction volumes increasing, with headline volumes rising +15% YoY to $42bn. Equally notable, April 2026 was revised meaningfully higher, narrowing that month’s YoY decline to -14%, from -33% previously. As a result, 2Q26-to-date volumes now stand at +0.8% YoY, and YTD volumes are tracking ~20% ahead of the same period last year.
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White papersAsia Pacific real estate outlook – Edition June 2026
Uncertainty tightens its grip on markets
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White papersGlobal real estate outlook – Edition June 2026
Middle East conflict is creating uncertainty
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White papersNew Logistics Demand Drivers offset Impact from Iran Conflict
Regardless of short-term cost pressures from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, the long-term prime European logistics recovery is forecasted to withstand its effects and stay on track. Potential upside might come as occupiers switch their focus from just-in-time to just-in-case approach by adding more space to facilitate higher inventories.
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White papers2026 Mid-Year European Outlook: European Real Estate Recovery Can Withstand Pressure From Middle East Conflict
The conflict in the Middle East retains centre stage. Regardless of its short-term pressures, the long term prime European real estate recovery is forecasted to withstand its effects and stay on track with solid current income yields and projected rental growth offering resilience over our 5-year horizon.
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White papersModeling and Forecasting of Large Unbalanced Option Implied Volatility Surfaces
Forecasting the option implied volatility (IV) surface is difficult with standard time-series models because of its time-varying granularity. We propose a new two-step real-time sequential forecasting framework. The first step fits the daily surface and can accommodate any underlying specification for option prices or IVs, including dynamic option-pricing models, nonparametric methods, and machine-learning techniques. In the second step, we sequentially estimate a dynamic IV model using an updating rule.
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White papersThe infrastructure growth engine: Creating tomorrow’s core infrastructure today
Long-term structural trends – including deglobalisation, decarbonisation and digitalisation – are broadening the infrastructure asset class. Core infrastructure assets increasingly attract networks of essential businesses that provide mission-critical equipment and services. Meanwhile other businesses have also entered the market to plug crucial gaps in supply chains and capitalise on opportunities created by new technologies, changing demographics and aging infrastructure.
