Outlooks – Page 32
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Equity-bond correlations: was 2022 an outlier?
Should we be shocked? Negative equity and bond returns in 2022 provided further evidence that annual performance by the asset classes is not as uncorrelated as commonly believed. How frequently do these so-called ‘outlier’ years occur, and how can investors with long-beta portfolios be better prepared?
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Ahead of the Curve, Q1 2023
Read the latest views from our Chief Economist Silvia Dall’Angelo as she outlines three scenarios that could influence markets in the coming months.
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Time Series Forecasting with Transformer Models and application for Asset Management
Since its introduction in 2017 (Vaswani et al., 2017), the Transformer model has excelled in a wide range of tasks involving natural language processing and computer vision.
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Pensions Watch | Issue 24: What’s been happening and what’s on the Horizon in the world of pensions
With the inexorable rise of Defined Contribution (DC) schemes and the continued closure of Defined Benefit (DB) schemes to new members and future accrual, suggestions that DB is dead are ever present. However, with funded DB schemes accounting for around 80% of UK pension assets, most of which are not going to buyout just yet, DB is very much alive and kicking.
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COP 27: outcomes, opportunities and emerging markets
The expectations for COP 27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, were lower than for the landmark COP 26 in Glasgow in late 2021. And although world leaders at COP 27 reaffirmed their commitments to expanding clean energy deployment – despite the near-term energy crisis caused by the Ukraine conflict – they did not deliver much action on climate change.
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Decarbonising the built environment - Aviva Investors
We assess the financial and environmental pros and cons of developing new buildings versus retrofitting old ones.
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Biodiversity: why investors should care
The past 30 years have seen a bigger improvement in human prosperity than all of the past centuries combined.
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Adding thematic equities to diversified portfolios
Once considered niche, thematic equities have in recent years evolved into mainstream investments. Their ability to transform broad, long-term macro-economic, technological and environmental trends into investments has struck a chord with a growing circle of investors. Even so, questions remain over how to incorporate such stocks within portfolios that use traditional asset allocation frameworks. We propose three broad approaches where investors can incorporate thematic equities in their diversified portfolios.
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Fasten your seatbelts
We summarise key dynamics at play in credit markets and explore how best to capitalise on the bumps that are creating the beginnings of another fertile special situations investment environment.
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Private credit – from niche to mainstream?
For more than a decade, both corporate and consumer borrowers benefited from low interest rates and a very low cost of capital. As the global economic backdrop continues to adjust to the activity of central banks and the uncertain geopolitical backdrop, investors are seeking ways to ensure that their portfolios are adequately positioned in order to meet their long-term risk and performance goals, write Jo Waldron and Karen Lam at M&G Investments.
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Private debt: aligning investment needs with the means to deliver
An asset class that is now a core part of institutional portfolios, Mercer’s Private Debt offering combines expertise and opportunities to deliver amid a complex macro environment
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Global Investment Views - March 2023
“The dichotomy between the real economy and markets is increasing even as the earnings outlook is getting weak, leading us to be sceptical of the risk rally.”
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The soaraway rebound of global tourism
Global air traffic forecast to reach pre-Covid levels this year, boosted by the reopening of China.
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Tractor Beams: Satellite Tech and Precision Agriculture
As the global population increases and with more mouths to feed, could the answer to food insecurity lie in space?
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Eliminating the Improbable
With a fresh surge of inflation increasingly unlikely, the market outlook is far better than it was a year ago.
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Latin American Equities: More Than Meets the Eye
Despite the uncertain global macro backdrop, the combination of long-term structural trends and attractive current valuations is presenting a compelling opportunity in Latin American equities.
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Understanding scope 3: How responsible investors can wrestle with the unruliest of emissions
On one level, it is easy to understand the scale of emissions from a company’s operations. If a factory is pumping out millions of plastic widgets, we can measure the greenhouse gases (GHGs) produced as it does so, and the emissions linked to the energy used to make them. However, things can get a little murkier when we look up or down the value chain, perhaps at the customers putting their shiny new widget to use in the real world.
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Responsible Investment Quarterly Q4 2022
2022 was a difficult year with multiple crises, most of which have had both short- and long-term implications for our responsible investment themes: a geopolitical conflict, hyperinflation in energy prices, the lingering effects of the pandemic, and talent turnover
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AI Chatbots Rewrite Code for Technology Sector’s Future
ChatGPT has ignited the world’s imagination about the power of artificial intelligence (AI). As science fiction is transformed into applications with real business potential, we may be on the cusp of a new product cycle that breathes new life into the technology sector after a harsh year for investors.
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Prospects for Chinese consumers: 2023 and beyond
To ensure future prosperity, China’s economy needs to evolve into one driven by consumption. The country can no longer rely on the low-cost manufacturing that drove its phenomenal growth in recent decades. The Q1 issue of Futureturns, our quarterly report on thematics and trends in equity markets, explores the outlook for China’s consumer transition. Is it still on track?