Outlooks – Page 33
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A year of war in Ukraine: accelerating the energy transition and fragmentation
The West’s recent decision to send battle tanks to Ukraine to counteract a renewed Russian offensive increases the risk of a direct escalation with the West, while the likelihood of a protracted war remains somewhat higher. At the same time, most modern conflicts end in negotiations when both sides are sufficiently exhausted, and we consider the possibility of a ceasefire towards the end of 2023 and heading into 2024 is currently underappreciated.
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Hard or soft landing? Macro adaptation in multi asset
Is the worst over? Some investors remain unconvinced, while others are animated by animal spirits as macro data and policy action stoke expectations that markets can rise from the ashes of 2022.
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Will China grow old before it grows rich?
China aims to become a high-income country. Can the world’s second largest economy achieve this without the favourable demographic tailwinds that helped shape the preceding four decades?
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Mixed messages. Messy markets.
When macroeconomic data give mixed messages about the path ahead, markets are bound to become more challenging. That could be a good opportunity for using volatility to position for an eventual recovery.
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Why Securitized & Why Now: $12.5 Trillion Market Goes on Sale
Today’s securitized market presents a rare opportunity to add diversification via an asset class with the potential to provide defensive opportunities with outsized returns.
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ESG Viewpoint: Banking on biodiversity
Biodiversity loss - why it is material and relevant for banks
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Multi-asset Allocation Views: The mood music changes
The Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions team continue to anticipate that the cumulative effect of monetary policy tightening will have a dampening effect on economic activity.
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ETF: The China equity rally is not over yet
Chinese equities have staged an impressive comeback since hitting multi-year-lows during the third quarter last year.
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Fixed Income Themes for 2023: The Return Of Market Discipline
We think the next 12 months are likely to see this cycle’s peaks in inflation, policy tightening, bond yields and market volatility; and troughs in GDP growth, earnings growth and market valuations. But don’t see the pendulum swinging back to the post-2008 “new normal”.
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Equity Themes for 2023: Winners and Losers
We think the next 12 months are likely to see this cycle’s peaks in inflation, policy tightening, bond yields and market volatility; and troughs in GDP growth, earnings growth and market valuations. But don’t see the pendulum swinging back to the post-2008 “new normal”.
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Central Banks Tighten, Markets Loosen
While some pessimism has lifted from central bank messaging, we still think the market may be hearing only what it wants to hear.
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Pensions Watch 23: What’s been happening and what’s on the horizon in the world of pensions
The annual revision to the PLSA’s retirement living standards has seen double digit increases to each of its illustrative expenditures in retirement. This suggests that, without urgent reform, many DC savers will continue to sleepwalk into retirement penury.
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The More Things Change
Has recent strong data changed the fundamental economic and market outlook, or just the timeline?
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Modern Slavery in Mining Looms as a Key Risk to Investors
Awareness that modern slavery is a social evil and investment risk continues to grow, putting investors in a pivotal position to identify and root out this risk across industries. Global mining is a particular challenge: risks to people in this industry are high and rising, and they’re not well-managed when compared with high-risk consumer-facing industries such as technology and apparel.
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NFL Alpha: Appraising Arizona
For the 20th year, Allspring’s Systematic Edge team applied its quantitative research on low volatility stocks to the NFL in an effort to predict the postseason playoff winners and the winner of Super Bowl LVII.
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Global Emerging Markets: Outlook 2023
Kunjal Gala and the Global Emerging Markets Equity team outline their views on the prospects for emerging markets in 2023 and beyond.
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Emerging Market Insights: Domestic demand in focus
China’s reopening and impact on energy prices. China’s economic reopening is proceeding swiftly, despite the spike in COVID-19 cases in early January.
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Macroeconomic Picture - February 2023
United States: The US economy has been showing signs of deceleration, as the fiscal and monetary policy drag weigh on activity, although at different intensity.
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Market Scenarios and Risks - February 2023
We revise the probabilities of our alternative scenarios. Some of the risk factors we identify may occur in our central scenario, which is probably not yet fully priced in, especially by equity markets.
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Why and what if inflation falls faster than expected?
”As fiscal support should wane, this could lead to lower inflation pressures in the second half of 2023 and to a faster decline in inflation”