Outlooks – Page 30
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White papers
Stop blaming everything on pension funds
UK pension funds have been blamed for a number of woes affecting the UK’s financial fortunes. However, the suggestion that these could be solved by the wave of a regulatory wand is misguided.
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European market outlook: Clouds on the horizon
After a decade of ultra-loose monetary policy, we are starting to see the intended and unintended consequences of one of the most aggressive periods of monetary policy tightening in history.
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Plastic waste: linear today, circular tomorrow
The transition to a CLIC® economy that is clean, lean, inclusive and circular means moving away from the current WILD economy that is wasteful, idle, lopsided and dirty. At LOIM, we believe that profound change is required in three key systems, including how we make and use materials in order to transition to a more circular model: nowhere is this more apparent than in plastics.
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How vulnerable is EM debt to volatility spillovers?
At the beginning of the year, the three major factors driving emerging market (EM) debt were US financial conditions, the dollar and global growth. All three look likely to have been changed by the current shock to the banking sector.
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White papers
ChatGPT on the wall, should 5G be abandoned at all?
The emergence of revolutionary artificial intelligence chatbot technology has created strong competition among major tech companies, all vying to create their own versions. But 5G also plays an important role in this market.
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China’s role in global trade and why it still matters
China is a big deal: it singlehandedly accounts for more than 18% of the world’s GDP (gross domestic product). Across the world’s 10 biggest economies it is the top trading partner for eight and a top five partner for the remaining two. It has the world’s largest trade surplus at $676 billion, which is roughly equivalent to the GDP of Poland.
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White papers
Living on a Prayer
The Federal Open Market Committee hiked rates by 25 basis points (bps) and kept its quantitative tightening plans in place. It did acknowledge that financial conditions have tightened and progress has been made on inflation. However, it seems to think it can simultaneously tighten monetary policy to fight inflation while providing support to the financial system. The Federal Reserve (Fed) may be living on a prayer instead.
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White papers
On My Mind: Don’t bank on it
Financial markets seem to have returned to trying to time a dovish Federal Reserve turn, but Franklin Templeton Fixed Income CIO Sonal Desai says with a tight labor market and inflation running at 5%-6%—don’t bank on it.
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Quick Thoughts: Alternative investments outlook post-SVB
Silicon Valley Bank was a “vital cog” in the private market ecosystem, which leads to many questions—and opportunities—across the alternative investments landscape. Franklin Templeton Institute’s Stephen Dover offers his thoughts.
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Exploring sustainability in infrastructure
While investors are often attracted to the sustainable nature of infrastructure returns, how much do they know about the sector’s alignment with environmental and social goals?
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An Inflection Point
Four of Allspring’s fixed income leaders share their perspectives on the market volatility and banking system turmoil in the wake of SVB’s collapse and their views on what lies ahead for fixed income investing.
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Liquid Alternatives — Why Now?
2022 left investors scrambling to preserve capital and find alternative sources of return. Both equities and bonds across the globe suffered in the high inflation and rising interest rate environment. The S&P 500 Index ended the year at -18.1%, the MSCI EAFE Index ended at -14.5%, and the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond (US Agg) Index ended at -13.0%.
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White papers
A global assessment of the implications of recent banking sector developments
”Due to tightening financial conditions, we expect a weaker US economic outlook, and a less aggressive Fed: a small increase in rates is still on the cards and then a pause.”
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White papers
ECB increases rates: the job on inflation is not done yet, but expect a softer path
The European Central Bank raised its key policy interest rates by half a percentage point, lifting the deposit rate to 3.0%. However, it did not commit to future rate hikes, Lagarde stated that “it’s not possible to determine at this point in time the future path for rates”. ...
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White papers
At the Crossroads, Seeking Direction
Faced with historically inverted yield curves, unbalanced equity markets and economic conditions unseen for 40 years, investors are agonizing over their next steps.
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Silicon Valley Bank: Market Reaction and Implications
Facing pressure from declining deposits and a loss on the sale of securities in its portfolio, SVB attempted last week to raise capital to mitigate a Moody’s rating downgrade on Wednesday. However, it was unable to complete the capital raise before markets opened on Thursday, which resulted in a precipitous drop in its stock price that day.
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White papers
A multi-asset perspective on recent bank turmoil: Don’t lose sight of the macro story
Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions explores the shared macro concerns that set the stage for the recent banking crisis, its ripple effects on the broader economy and implications for multi-asset investing.
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White papers
Tapping the Evolution in Alternative Return Streams
Institutional investors’ thinking about risk allocation has been dominated for some time by traditional beta sources, mainly long exposure to equities and bonds. The market regime provided little reason for radical change. After all, for two decades, stock and bond returns were negatively correlated, enabling 60/40 equity/bond mixes to deliver both a risk-balanced allocation framework and attractive returns.
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White papers
Fed in a Pickle: Fight Inflation OR Fuel a Banking Crisis?
Following SVB’s collapse and related events, the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place: Inflation is too high, but cracks are starting in the financial system. How did we get here? What are the Fed’s options?
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White papers
2023: The year of green, social and sustainability bonds? Three reasons to be optimistic
2022 was a very challenging year for the bond market and sustainable bonds were no exception. Yet, there are reasons to remain optimistic about the asset class; the green bond market showed resilience and offered interesting investment opportunities which continued to drive investor appetite despite the high volatility.