Outlooks – Page 25
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Can systemic risk come back in 2023?
In the latest instalment of Simply put, where we make macro calls with a multi-asset perspective, we analyse the outlook for systemic risk using an established measure of market turbulence over time.
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Banking crisis lends uncertainty to macro outlook
Brandywine Global: As investors and markets navigate the immediate fallout of the banking crisis, we look at the broader macroeconomic implications and the potential outlook for fixed income and currencies..
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Ramping up the US-China chip rivalry: Who will suffer the most?
In another turn of the screw in its ban on tech and chip exports to China, the US is proposing to block direct company investment in advanced tech areas such as artificial intelligence, 5G wireless and quantum computing. How much China suffers will depend on whether the country has enough knowledge to sustain its own development of advanced tech. There is evidence that it has.
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No systemic risk from SVB failure, but watch out for areas of vulnerability
Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), a commercial bank that specialises in serving start-ups in Silicon Valley, has been shut down by regulators.
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Crisis Management: Investment Analytics Update
The Investment Analytics team provides ongoing analytics and investment risk oversight for client portfolios. This note discusses the team’s rapid response to the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.
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Jittery markets fear return of bigger rate rises
Markets have begun to price in a 50bps rate rise by the Fed in March but are awaiting key economic data which will reveal if the US economy has started to slow.
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How dangerous are 0DTE options?
The tell-tale signs are present: high trading volumes, retail investor buy-in and bloggers competing with Wall Street technicians for airtime. Is the craze for 0DTE – zero-day-to-expiry – options fomenting a meltdown on the scale of 2018’s ‘Volmageddon’?
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ESG Viewpoint: The challenges of realising zero-carbon cement
Can cement emissions be curbed, while still allowing for crucial infrastructure growth?
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From Traditional to Sustainable Growth
This article is a 360-degree analysis of the growth investment concept. Academics generally circumscribed it to a mere anti-value status. We show that growth-oriented stocks not only present the characteristic of being expensive and over-priced.
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Are Cheap Burgers in Emerging Markets a Good Sign for Investors?
Investors in emerging markets (EM) have endured a decade of poor performance. But things may be changing. Based on The Economist magazine’s data comparing hamburger prices across countries, many EM currencies look cheap today—as they did 20 years ago before an extended rally of EM stocks and bonds.
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Are equities attractive now?
In the latest instalment of Simply put, where we make macro calls with a multi-asset perspective, we run different scenarios on equity pricing in the current environment.
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Nearshoring opportunities brighten Mexico’s outlook
As companies look to relocate business operations closer to home, Mexico’s close proximity to the US suggest the central American country will benefit significantly from this shift.
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European equities are favoured in a fragile earnings outlook
“The greater resilience of profits enabled the European market to remain cheaper than the US one.”
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Ukraine: one year on but no end in sight
After 12 months of fighting further action is needed from the west to prevent a balance-of-payments crisis and to support the reconstruction costs faced by Ukraine
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Roving recession to staggered recovery?
In this monthly series, we take a quick, comprehensive look at current macroeconomic themes that matter to clients.
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CIO views: a new era of finding alpha
Uncertainty from higher interest rates, mixed data and geopolitical risk is fuelling more volatility. How is active management even more relevant in the current context? Are the former winners gone? Is this a new era of finding alpha?
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Stagflation Haze
The world is grappling with a combination of once in a generation shocks, producing an uncertain and complex economic landscape.
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Equity-bond correlations: was 2022 an outlier?
Should we be shocked? Negative equity and bond returns in 2022 provided further evidence that annual performance by the asset classes is not as uncorrelated as commonly believed. How frequently do these so-called ‘outlier’ years occur, and how can investors with long-beta portfolios be better prepared?
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Ahead of the Curve, Q1 2023
Read the latest views from our Chief Economist Silvia Dall’Angelo as she outlines three scenarios that could influence markets in the coming months.
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Time Series Forecasting with Transformer Models and application for Asset Management
Since its introduction in 2017 (Vaswani et al., 2017), the Transformer model has excelled in a wide range of tasks involving natural language processing and computer vision.