All Fixed Income articles – Page 18
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White papers2025 Emerging market debt outlook: Stick to income and relative value in a disruptive year
As 2024 is now behind us, we are reflecting on a year of political and geopolitical upheaval which culminated in the election of Donald Trump in the U.S., whose disruptive agenda hangs over emerging market (EM) investors’ heads. In this outlook, we flesh out our current view of the world, as seen from an EM lens, and highlight a few key investment themes.
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White papersNavigating interest rate uncertainty on the bond market during a second Trump term
US bond rates are a significant risk driver for institutional investors such as pension funds, insurance companies, and sovereign wealth funds who typically invest roughly 30% of their allocations into bonds and other fixed income classes. With Trump’s election win, we must navigate the potential impacts of his policies on the bond market. Given the contradictory nature of his suggested policies, we see the potential for a new level of interest rate uncertainty driven by a mix of inflationary and growth pressures causing increased volatility in the bond market.
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White papersEmerging market debt outlook for 2025: Ready for Trump 2.0?
Looking ahead to 2025, the macro environment, in theory, sets the stage for a friendly backdrop in EM, especially given continued disinflation, which should allow most major central banks to ease rates throughout the year. However, the incoming US administration poses several risks to EMs.
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White papersAnticipation to Reality: Credit Markets for European Insurers in 2025
Mapping a way through a year of tight credit spreads and likely regional divergence in policy and growth.
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White papersFixed Income: Be Prepared for Policy-Driven Volatility
In the wake of electoral shifts, policy changes could add to market turbulence, creating new risks but also opportunities.
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PodcastFixed Income Moves in 2025
As the United States embarks on a new administration, markets eagerly prepare for what is to come regarding domestic policy, international policy, tariffs, and geopolitics. But how will the Fixed Income asset class move through these new pathways? What factors are at play regarding fiscal and monetary policy? And how can investors prepare for the year ahead?
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White papersAsset Allocation Committee Outlook, 1Q 2025 - A Delicate Balance
“Overall, we anticipate a supportive backdrop for risk assets, as reflected in our broad asset-class views… The balance is delicate, however, and the risks are piled up on both sides.”
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White papersThematic Engagement: 2024 Scope 3 Emissions
Scope 3 emissions are becoming increasingly important as issuers face growing pressure to report and reduce these emissions. In our latest report, we examine how issuers across public fixed-income and private credit sectors are tackling Scope 3 data challenges and setting decarbonization targets.
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White papersFixed Income Outlook – Come what may
Once gain the US bond market will lead global fixed income markets in 2025, with a strong US economy but uncertainty over the new administration’s policies setting the tone. We expect the US economy, over time, to pivot towards structurally slower growth and stickier core inflation. This more ‘stagflationary’ trajectory may result in the Federal Reserve taking a more cautious approach towards further rate cuts.
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White papersWill US bond markets outperform Europe and China in 2025?
This quarter’s summary of what to look out for in fixed income
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VideoPortfolio Finance: Private Markets’ Next Great Asset Class?
In the latest episode of Streaming Income, Head of Portfolio Finance, Dadong Yan helps to define and de-mystify the growing opportunity in Portfolio Finance.
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White papersHigh Yield: Shelter From the (Rate) Storm?
High yield bonds and loans have proven their ability to weather uncertainty and look well-suited for an environment in which rates, and potential rate volatility, may remain front-and-center.
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White papersFX reserves and the 10-10-10 proposition
Over the next 10 years the US dollar will likely surrender another 10% share of global foreign exchange reserves – but there will be no single beneficiary, with 10 different currencies all growing their allocations
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White papersTrump’s first 100 days: Five policies shaping markets in 2025
With an ambitious policy agenda, President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office will provide an early indication of his ability to sustain momentum in delivering on his promises. Wasting no time, Trump has unleashed a whirlwind of executive actions across a variety of policy focus areas, though many are likely to be challenged in court.
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White papersThe Fed’s dilemma
Recent inflation numbers are in line with a short pause in the path towards the Fed’s target, yet bond yields have moved sharply higher since the Fed’s big cut. Medium-term inflation expectations – including FOMC member expectations – have moved higher (see chart), but most of the increase in ten-year yields since the election reflects a rise in real rates.
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White papersWhat could the new cycle hold for real estate debt investors?
Real estate debt is attracting increasing attention from investors globally, as well as new market entrants, with the potential for equity-like returns for credit investing like never seen before. As we move into a new cycle, we look at the opportunities for non-bank lenders.
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White papersInflation in focus ahead of Trump’s inauguration
“In the Trump 2.0 administration, the fiscal outlook and inflation expectations will be the main market themes to watch.”
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White papersFixed Income Perspectives Q1 2025
The fourth quarter ended with higher bond yields as the market reduced its expectations for future rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed).
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White papers2025 Fixed Income Default Study
An examination of our bottom-up default outlook and total return forecasts for 2025
