Amundi Asset Management

2019 Top 400 ranking: 9http://www.amundi.com

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Amundi

Cross Asset Investment Strategy: June 2018

Go the extra mile, but check the exits

We have entered into a regime of diminished returns. Sensitivity to news flow is, and will continue to be, very high, as markets try to adjust to new financial and economic conditions. Italian political is triggering a risk aversion phase on Euro, peripheral bonds, banks. How should investors navigate this new phase? First, they should be aware of the mid-term scenario, which will be increasingly challenging (ie, risk of recession, risk of policy mistakes) while playing three major short-term themes. First, the economic outlook is still sound, but with the peak of economic acceleration, we believe, now behind us. Higher oil prices and protectionist talk support this, but without major disruption, as our central case still sees the oil price remaining stable around current levels and no full-on trade war materialising. World GDP growth is expected to be around 4% in 2018, and slightly below 4% in 2019, but still above potential for major economies. On top of this, the narrative of global synchronised growth is losing momentum, with the US still leading (and likely accelerating) among developed markets, thanks to the extension of the cycle, supported by the fiscal boost. Second, central banks (CB) will continue to drift away from their policies of exceptional easing, even if gradually and at a slow pace, as inflation is not viewed to be a major threat at this point.

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Head Office
90, boulevard Pasteur
Paris
75015
France
Company website:
http://www.amundi.com
Year Founded:
2010
No. of investment offices worldwide:
6

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  • Trade War Escalation And Impact On World Trade And Economic Growth

    Trade War Escalation And Impact On World Trade And Economic Growth

    White papersWed, 18 Sep 2019

    Trade tensions re-escalated during the summer. Starting on 1 September, the US Administration introduced new tariffs and China retaliated simultaneously. More tariffs are likely from the US side, including an increase in tariffs already in place from 25% to 30% and new tariffs on the last tranche of imported goods from China. Concerning extra-tariffs measures, in August the temporary licences granted to US companies to operate with Huawei were extended upon their expiration but, so ...

  • Risk Factors, Macroeconomic Context And Forecasts - September 2019

    Risk Factors, Macroeconomic Context And Forecasts - September 2019

    White papersWed, 18 Sep 2019

    Financial markets have been rattled in the past weeks over escalating trade war between the US and China as both imposed tariffs and counter-tariffs on imports. Idiosyncratic risks stories in countries such as Argentina resurfaced, the UK’s parliament was suspended over Brexit chaos and Italy witnessed a political crisis of its own, although a government seems in sight now.

  • Global Investment Views - September 2019

    Global Investment Views - September 2019

    White papersWed, 4 Sep 2019

    Financial markets have been rattled in the past weeks over escalating trade war between the US and China as both imposed tariffs and counter-tariffs on imports. Idiosyncratic risks stories in countries such as Argentina resurfaced, the UK’s parliament was suspended over Brexit chaos and Italy witnessed a political crisis of its own, although a government seems in sight now. 

  • domestic focus to exploit emerging markets equity opportunities

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    White papersSun, 1 Sep 2019

    The emerging markets (EM) universe has experienced significant changes in the last decade with the further addition of investible countries (i.e. China A shares in 2018).

  • Fed And Ecb, Bridging From A “Mid-Cycle Adjustment” To An “Impactful And Significant” Package.

    White papersTue, 27 Aug 2019

    The minutes from the latest ECB meeting suggest that the ECB is likely to proceed with a full set of measures in September, confirming not only the indications from President Draghi following the meeting but also the very latest statements by Olly Rehn, calling for the need for an “impactful and significant” package.

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