All Developed Market articles – Page 6
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White papersMacroeconomic picture - November 2020
The US economy rebounded in Q3, exceeding our expectations and leading to a further upside revision of our 2020 GDP forecasts. However, given the signs of a progressive deceleration in several economic and behavioural indicators, influenced by the new rise in Covid-19 cases, we are more cautious about the speed at which the economy will enter 2021.
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White papersMacroeconomic picture - October 2020
Q3 economic rebound exceeds our expectations on GDP, prompting an upside revision to our August forecasts. Yet, the deceleration in late Q3 of several indicators is keeping us from extrapolating Q3 momentum into Q4. After some softening in 2020 H2, headline inflation will move along a gradual upward trend, stabilising around 2% from mid-2021 with possible temporary overshooting. As November 3 approaches, policymakers’ focus is shifting, with an increased risk that 2020 fiscal policy will become more diluted than expected, and with little visibility on the Phase 4 deal in particular.
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White papersBrexit Update
Brexit occurred on January 31, 2020, and we are now in the transition period until December 31. Therefore, rules and regulations in the UK are still aligned with those in the European Union, but the United Kingdom is no longer a member state, hence talk of the EU-27 rather than the EU-28.
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White papersMacroeconomic picture - September 2020
A new Covid-19 outbreak in several states in July and August imposed more caution in reopening the economy, slowing recovery momentum. The labour market remain distressed. In the coming quarters, the US economy is expected to continue along a gradual and progressive recovery path, underpinned by easy monetary policy and a delayed new round of fiscal support.
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White papersPositioning for the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election
For investors and markets still reeling from the global pandemic—and facing a protracted, volatile economic recovery—a new source of uncertainty is fast approaching: the U.S. presidential election in November. Historically, equity markets have posted below-average total returns during an election year.
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White papersEmerging market equities – Assessing the regional prospects
Even if we expect emerging market equities to outperform their developed market peers, country and sector differences, as always, will be significant.
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White papersWhy farmland now?
Amidst unprecedented market volatility, Westchester Group Investment Management, an investment specialist of Nuveen, explains why they believe farmland is a durable and consistent investment.
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - July 2020
United States: while hard data help size the lockdown-induced impact on Q2 activity and production, soft and high-frequency data are showing a gradual pickup. As pent-up demand comes through, activity will rebound in Q3, followed by further improvement in Q4. We expect GDP to drop by 4.5%-6.5% y/y in 2020, followed by a rebound of 3.0- 4.0% y/y in 2021, and to return to its pre-Covid-19 level by mid-2022. Lockdowns have also impacted inflation, which is driven by shifts in demand and has exhibited short-term weaknesses in 2020, with reflating forecast in 2021 on base effects and a pickup in demand.
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White papersMacroeconomic picture – June 2020
The coronavirus crisis has pushed the U.S. economy into a sharp downturn, with severe disruptions of businesses and mass layoffs. Unemployment has surged into double-digit territory (14.7%); confidence on both the consumer and business sides has plummeted; and consumer inflation has started to reflect the consequences of the lockdowns, with headline CPI falling to 0.3% YoY (1.5% prior). The timing and profile of the recovery are still highly uncertain, but we expect GDP to contract between 4.5% and 6.5% YoY, with inflation remaining significantly subdued, with significant risks of moving into negative territory during the year
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White papersIndia in 2020: Active Perspectives on India’s Evolution
In India 2020: A Vision for the New Millennium, A.P.J. Abdul Kalam and Y.S. Rajan detailed how India could become a developed country and one of the world’s four largest economies by 2020. Here, our team shares their thoughts about India’s potential.
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White papersMarket weekly – Fixed income: Deflation, not inflation, is the main risk now
After a rollercoaster ride in April, senior investment strategist Daniel Morris and Dominick DeAlto, chief investment officer fixed income, discuss what will matter next for developed bond markets.
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White papersThe Widening Emerging-Developed Market Gap
In our previous paper on the impact of rapidly growing budget deficits in Japan, Western Europe and the US, we examined the relationship between debt levels and the short and long-term interest rates over time for 12 developed economies.
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White papersPublic Engagement Report Q1 2020
The Public Engagement Report highlights some of the stewardship activities undertaken by EOS at Federated Hermes on behalf of its clients over Q1 2020.
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White papersCoronavirus Crisis: Impacts And Implications For Emerging Markets
After the first wave of the Covid-19 outbreak in China and East Asia, and the second wave in Western Europe and North America, a third wave now looks to be building in several EM and frontier countries. EM and frontier countries may be able to benefit from the experiences and best practices then put in place in countries affected by the pandemic earlier.
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White papersGrasping The Intangible - How Intangible Assets Reveal Latent Value
It has long been accepted practice to account for intangible assets (“intangibles”) when valuing companies. Over time, and given changes in the economy, this has increased in importance. But valuation methods vary and there are big differences in how investors approach the subject. There is also great debate on the adequacy of existing accounting methods for successfully valuing intangibles. Accounting standards developed during the industrial era were designed for companies primarily engaged in manufacturing.
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White papersInvestment Outlook 2020 - Hotel California: No Leaving QE
Central bank policy is moving backwards now instead of forward, with three rate cuts reversed so far in the US and the European Central Bank (ECB) relaunching quantitative easing (QE). ‘Lower-for-longer’ risks are becoming a permanent state of affairs, with major significant implications for fixed income markets and investors. ...
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White papersA class apart: emerging Asia’s fixed income market
Why investors seeking a stable and attractive source of return within a diversified bond portfolio should head to emerging Asia.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - December 2019
In recent weeks equities rallied along with bond yields as investors reacted to the prospect of a US-China ‘phase one deal’ and fading global recession fears. The value of negative yielding bonds continued to fall, from US$17 trillion over the summer to the current US$12.5 trillion. While equities were previously overshadowed by the excessive gloominess on the global economy and earnings, markets rebounded after corporate results in the US and Europe met or exceeded low expectations, and as economic data did not show any material worsening. The mantra now seems to be ‘not so bad is the new good’.
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White papersContinued Support For Asset Returns
Our capital market expectations (CME) are designed to provide annualized return expectation over a longer-term horizon, typically viewed as being five to 10 years.
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White papersBuybacks – A Multi-Perspective Review And Thoughts On Best Practices For Company Buyback Policies
US share buybacks are near record levels in absolute dollar terms and incrementally the discussion has shifted from academic finance journals to political stump speeches.
