All Developed Market articles – Page 6
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - July 2020
United States: while hard data help size the lockdown-induced impact on Q2 activity and production, soft and high-frequency data are showing a gradual pickup. As pent-up demand comes through, activity will rebound in Q3, followed by further improvement in Q4. We expect GDP to drop by 4.5%-6.5% y/y in 2020, followed by a rebound of 3.0- 4.0% y/y in 2021, and to return to its pre-Covid-19 level by mid-2022. Lockdowns have also impacted inflation, which is driven by shifts in demand and has exhibited short-term weaknesses in 2020, with reflating forecast in 2021 on base effects and a pickup in demand.
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White papersMacroeconomic picture – June 2020
The coronavirus crisis has pushed the U.S. economy into a sharp downturn, with severe disruptions of businesses and mass layoffs. Unemployment has surged into double-digit territory (14.7%); confidence on both the consumer and business sides has plummeted; and consumer inflation has started to reflect the consequences of the lockdowns, with headline CPI falling to 0.3% YoY (1.5% prior). The timing and profile of the recovery are still highly uncertain, but we expect GDP to contract between 4.5% and 6.5% YoY, with inflation remaining significantly subdued, with significant risks of moving into negative territory during the year
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White papersIndia in 2020: Active Perspectives on India’s Evolution
In India 2020: A Vision for the New Millennium, A.P.J. Abdul Kalam and Y.S. Rajan detailed how India could become a developed country and one of the world’s four largest economies by 2020. Here, our team shares their thoughts about India’s potential.
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White papersMarket weekly – Fixed income: Deflation, not inflation, is the main risk now
After a rollercoaster ride in April, senior investment strategist Daniel Morris and Dominick DeAlto, chief investment officer fixed income, discuss what will matter next for developed bond markets.
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White papersThe Widening Emerging-Developed Market Gap
In our previous paper on the impact of rapidly growing budget deficits in Japan, Western Europe and the US, we examined the relationship between debt levels and the short and long-term interest rates over time for 12 developed economies.
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White papersPublic Engagement Report Q1 2020
The Public Engagement Report highlights some of the stewardship activities undertaken by EOS at Federated Hermes on behalf of its clients over Q1 2020.
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White papersCoronavirus Crisis: Impacts And Implications For Emerging Markets
After the first wave of the Covid-19 outbreak in China and East Asia, and the second wave in Western Europe and North America, a third wave now looks to be building in several EM and frontier countries. EM and frontier countries may be able to benefit from the experiences and best practices then put in place in countries affected by the pandemic earlier.
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White papersGrasping The Intangible - How Intangible Assets Reveal Latent Value
It has long been accepted practice to account for intangible assets (“intangibles”) when valuing companies. Over time, and given changes in the economy, this has increased in importance. But valuation methods vary and there are big differences in how investors approach the subject. There is also great debate on the adequacy of existing accounting methods for successfully valuing intangibles. Accounting standards developed during the industrial era were designed for companies primarily engaged in manufacturing.
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White papersInvestment Outlook 2020 - Hotel California: No Leaving QE
Central bank policy is moving backwards now instead of forward, with three rate cuts reversed so far in the US and the European Central Bank (ECB) relaunching quantitative easing (QE). ‘Lower-for-longer’ risks are becoming a permanent state of affairs, with major significant implications for fixed income markets and investors. ...
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White papersA class apart: emerging Asia’s fixed income market
Why investors seeking a stable and attractive source of return within a diversified bond portfolio should head to emerging Asia.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views - December 2019
In recent weeks equities rallied along with bond yields as investors reacted to the prospect of a US-China ‘phase one deal’ and fading global recession fears. The value of negative yielding bonds continued to fall, from US$17 trillion over the summer to the current US$12.5 trillion. While equities were previously overshadowed by the excessive gloominess on the global economy and earnings, markets rebounded after corporate results in the US and Europe met or exceeded low expectations, and as economic data did not show any material worsening. The mantra now seems to be ‘not so bad is the new good’.
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White papersBuybacks – A Multi-Perspective Review And Thoughts On Best Practices For Company Buyback Policies
US share buybacks are near record levels in absolute dollar terms and incrementally the discussion has shifted from academic finance journals to political stump speeches.
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White papersFour charts that show why “old tech” might surprise income investors
What happens when tech grows up?
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White papersThe Elizabeth Warren Moment
E. Warren is now neck-and-neck with J. Biden (27%) in the Democratic primary polls and far ahead of B. Sanders (15%).From her fifth-place position just six months ago, she has risen 21 points in the polls since then, while Biden has lost four points and Sanders, six. Bookmakers now put her odds of winning the nomination at more than 50%, vs. less than 20% for Biden and 6% for Sanders.
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White papersFlashforward: Drawing Parallels With 1999/2000
Investors in the UK and overseas are adopting extreme positioning in their hunt for defensive growth. In doing so the elastic has become very stretched and a sharp rotation could be overdue. This market dynamic is reminiscent of 1999/2000 whereby ‘old economy’ stocks are discarded in favour of ‘new economy’ ones.
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White papersStrategic Relative Value Q2 2019
A quarterly look at how macro events are driving relative value around the globe.
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White papersEuropean elections: not a game changer, opportunities from divergences
The results are broadly in line with what opinion polls had indicated, although with a slight “pro-institution” surprise. Key takeaways are, first, a decline in the votes for the two large political groups which are the social-democrats and the Christian-democrats or moderate right; these two parties had, since 1979, commanded a combined majority in the European Parliament, and this is now over.
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White papersUS-China trade: continuing the talks while making the war
In our opinion, investors should dismiss the idea that talks could break down, albeit uncertainties remain. Recent work has focused on details and wording, with the majority of the agreement document having been completed. However, several major issues remain, and on these it is largely up to Trump and XI to make final decisions.
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White papersGerman Equities Present Opportunities to Combat Headwinds
In this Q&A, Rob Smith, Manager of the Barings German Growth strategy, shares his thoughts on how German equities are positioned to combat various headwinds, and which sectors the team expects future growth to come from.
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White papersRedefining Bank of America: an era of responsible growth
Bank of America has slashed costs and tightened risk controls in recent years as it moves on from its crisis-era legacies. In this case study, we examine the bank’s conservative approach and our decade-long engagement with the company.
