All Developed Market articles – Page 4
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White papersChina’s Growth and Policy Priorities Pave New Paths to Equities
From COVID lockdowns to a property crisis, China’s economy suffered major shocks in 2022. But as the world’s most populous nation rapidly reopens its economy, we believe China will present attractive opportunities—particularly for investors who are prepared to understand its nuances.
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White papersCOP27: Shifting the Global Climate-Change Debate
COP27, the latest United Nations Conference of the Parties, concluded recently with mixed results on some of the key agenda items. In our view, though, the event will be remembered more for the way it shifted the global climate-change debate.
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White papersWhat 2023 holds for equities and bond investors
2023 will be a year when the investment environment slowly gets back to normality. Inflation will come down – even if not quite as fast as the market seems to expect. Economies will struggle for growth, but manage to stave off a deep downturn.
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - January 2023
United States: the US economy is showing signs of deceleration, with restrictive monetary policy starting to weigh on activity and progressively dragging growth below potential.
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - November 2022
United States: We cut our growth expectations on the back of tight and fast monetary policy action. We call for an extended period of sub-par growth for 2023-24, with increased downside risks from H2 2023.
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - September 2022
United States: The H1 contraction will be followed by a protracted period of sub-par growth, but the ongoing deceleration is so far not yet due to Fed tightening; cracks are appearing in an apparently strong labour market, and we expect the lack of productivity to cause a labour market correction.
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White papersH2 2022 Investment Outlook - Life above zero: investors’ journey at a time of rising rates
We started the year with expectations of strong growth and high inflation throughout the first part of 2022. The Russia-Ukraine war accentuated the inflationary trend, now well above Central Bank (CB) targets, which is now set to persist longer than expected.
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White papersWhat will drive financial markets over the next five years?
Dividing a portfolio’s investments more or less evenly between developed market stocks and bonds has proved a rewarding strategy over the past few decades. The annualised return investors have secured by pursuing this approach has been in the high single digits – gains that have come courtesy of steady economic growth, an almost continuous fall in interest rates and inflation, and relatively calm financial market conditions.
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White papersWill value stocks continue to outperform expensive sector peers?
Value stocks have strongly outperformed their growth sector peers since late 2020, when they became as cheap as they were at the peak of the 2000 tech bubble. Although half of that advantage in valuations is now gone, we believe it still leaves plenty of room for an above-average performance by value stocks, especially when interest rates are rising in developed markets.
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White papers3-4 May FOMC meeting: 50bp interest rate hike is bullish for markets
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and statement: On 4 May, the Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked the Fed funds rate by 50bp to 0.75-1.00%, the first back-to-back hike since the second quarter of 2006. The FOMC statement signaled the start of a series of rate hikes. The Fed downplayed the negative Q1 GDP data, while upgrading its inflation assessment.
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - May 2022
United States: the surge in inflation to a multi-decade high is compressing real incomes and could negatively impact consumer confidence, spending and saving behaviour, as some surveys seem to expect. At the same time, companies’ capex intentions remain high, suggesting that, while US consumption may be decelerating, capex should ...
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White papersAn Aging Workforce Hunts for New Global Investment Opportunities
Richer, older, developed countries face slowing population growth, while poorer, younger, developing countries face faster growth. Successful investments could boost standards of living in these developing countries, aiding demand for goods, housing, transportation, and more.
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White papersThe inflation psychology is kicking in
After a decade of central banks struggling to bring inflation up to target, the start of 2022 has been characterised by a shift in the inflationary environment worldwide. US inflation is at its highest level in over 40 years, with other DM trailing close behind.
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White papersFrench election: markets complacent for Macron victory, but game is not yet won
The first round of the Presidential elections in France took place on Sunday 10 April and the result confirmed the general picture that commentators had anticipated in the weeks leading up to the vote. Incumbent President Emmanuel Macron will face off against National Rally leader Marine Le Pen in the second round, scheduled for 24 April.
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White papersThe Last Reliable Buoy
War and pandemic have disrupted recent patterns of prices and yields, but long-term inflation expectations remain in line—for now.
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - April 2022
United States: the increase in energy and commodity prices, which is pushing inflation higher, is negatively impacting the US consumer, both in terms of confidence and spending. At the same time, companies’ capex intentions remain high, suggesting that while US consumption may be decelerating, capex should remain resilient to the Ukraine war confidence hit.
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White papersUninvestable Russia
We survey the impact on worldwide fixed income markets of the devastation in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia, and send our thoughts to those in the heart of the conflict.
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White papersThe myriad of challenges – and opportunities – facing fixed income in 2022
The question of whether inflation is likely to prove temporary or more persistent is just one of the challenges facing fixed income investors this year. Buying on the dips may no longer be sufficient as the focus of central banks switches to containing inflation rather than simply rallying to support financial markets.
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White papersGetting along – Can investors influence geopolitics to improve climate action?
The outcome of the 2021 COP26 climate conference showed that, despite nations planning their own environmental efforts, collective climate action is difficult to foster. What does this mean for investors? Is there any way governments can be swayed into working together more effectively?
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White papersKeeping up with our Investment Outlook for 2022
2022 will be the “year of reckoning” for DM economies when they will test the effectiveness of the policies deployed since the peak of the pandemic phase and face the challenge of retuning to normality: fiscal and monetary policies will tighten up at a time when the growth/inflation mix is becoming more challenging and there is much less room for manoeuvre in terms of policy.
