All Developed Market articles – Page 4
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White papers3-4 May FOMC meeting: 50bp interest rate hike is bullish for markets
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and statement: On 4 May, the Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked the Fed funds rate by 50bp to 0.75-1.00%, the first back-to-back hike since the second quarter of 2006. The FOMC statement signaled the start of a series of rate hikes. The Fed downplayed the negative Q1 GDP data, while upgrading its inflation assessment.
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - May 2022
United States: the surge in inflation to a multi-decade high is compressing real incomes and could negatively impact consumer confidence, spending and saving behaviour, as some surveys seem to expect. At the same time, companies’ capex intentions remain high, suggesting that, while US consumption may be decelerating, capex should ...
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White papersAn Aging Workforce Hunts for New Global Investment Opportunities
Richer, older, developed countries face slowing population growth, while poorer, younger, developing countries face faster growth. Successful investments could boost standards of living in these developing countries, aiding demand for goods, housing, transportation, and more.
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White papersThe inflation psychology is kicking in
After a decade of central banks struggling to bring inflation up to target, the start of 2022 has been characterised by a shift in the inflationary environment worldwide. US inflation is at its highest level in over 40 years, with other DM trailing close behind.
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White papersFrench election: markets complacent for Macron victory, but game is not yet won
The first round of the Presidential elections in France took place on Sunday 10 April and the result confirmed the general picture that commentators had anticipated in the weeks leading up to the vote. Incumbent President Emmanuel Macron will face off against National Rally leader Marine Le Pen in the second round, scheduled for 24 April.
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White papersThe Last Reliable Buoy
War and pandemic have disrupted recent patterns of prices and yields, but long-term inflation expectations remain in line—for now.
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - April 2022
United States: the increase in energy and commodity prices, which is pushing inflation higher, is negatively impacting the US consumer, both in terms of confidence and spending. At the same time, companies’ capex intentions remain high, suggesting that while US consumption may be decelerating, capex should remain resilient to the Ukraine war confidence hit.
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White papersUninvestable Russia
We survey the impact on worldwide fixed income markets of the devastation in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia, and send our thoughts to those in the heart of the conflict.
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White papersThe myriad of challenges – and opportunities – facing fixed income in 2022
The question of whether inflation is likely to prove temporary or more persistent is just one of the challenges facing fixed income investors this year. Buying on the dips may no longer be sufficient as the focus of central banks switches to containing inflation rather than simply rallying to support financial markets.
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White papersGetting along – Can investors influence geopolitics to improve climate action?
The outcome of the 2021 COP26 climate conference showed that, despite nations planning their own environmental efforts, collective climate action is difficult to foster. What does this mean for investors? Is there any way governments can be swayed into working together more effectively?
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White papersKeeping up with our Investment Outlook for 2022
2022 will be the “year of reckoning” for DM economies when they will test the effectiveness of the policies deployed since the peak of the pandemic phase and face the challenge of retuning to normality: fiscal and monetary policies will tighten up at a time when the growth/inflation mix is becoming more challenging and there is much less room for manoeuvre in terms of policy.
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - February 2022
In 2022, the US economy will face a progressive deceleration in economic activity, hovering above trend first and eventually converging to potential in 2023. Activity indicators are pointing to a notable deceleration at the end of Q4 and start of Q1 (in part Covid-related), which we expect to be short-lived.
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White papersUS Stocks: Enduring Advantages for Testing Times
After three supercharged years for US equities, many investors wonder whether the market still has fuel for 2022. While higher valuations warrant caution, we believe a carefully chosen allocation can capture advantages inherent to the US market that underpin solid long-term return potential.
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White papersRevisiting the Term Premium Status
After detailing our findings about the persistently positive term-risk premium across developed market yield curves and how it can affect pension plans’ funded status several years ago, we’re revisiting the topic amid the considerable improvement in plans’ funded status and the corresponding implications for their fixed income allocations.
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Podcast2022 Outlook Series: Investing Through Climate Risk
Climate change is already having material impacts on public and private asset classes across developed and emerging markets.
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White papersLessons from COP26 ‘We have to realise that we can’t enjoy everything the way we have in perpetuity’
Covid may well have set back the march toward a greener planet, says Mitch Reznick, CFA, Head of Research and Sustainable Fixed Income.
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White papersEM inflation elevated but still relatively contained; local markets could offer relative value
The gap between emerging market (EM) inflation over developed market (DM) inflation has remained contained this time, in part due to weak economic conditions, muted domestic credit creation and proactive EM central banks. Tighter EM financial conditions should anchor longer term EM inflation expectations.
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White papersFrontier markets post-pandemic
The pandemic has introduced a large exogenous shock into economies and markets. While the young age demographic and reduced ability to implement lockdowns may have resulted in less of an impact on frontier economies, the impact has still been significant.
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White papersEmerging Asian equities expected to perform best over the next five years
We expect emerging Asian equities to deliver among the best returns in global stock markets over the next half decade, especially in dollar terms (10.8 per cent per year on average, or double the global market). We calculate that their outperformance – which stems mainly from superior earnings growth and currency appreciation – could amount to 35 per cent on a cumulative basis over the US in that timeframe.
