All Developed Market articles – Page 5
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EM inflation elevated but still relatively contained; local markets could offer relative value
The gap between emerging market (EM) inflation over developed market (DM) inflation has remained contained this time, in part due to weak economic conditions, muted domestic credit creation and proactive EM central banks. Tighter EM financial conditions should anchor longer term EM inflation expectations.
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Frontier markets post-pandemic
The pandemic has introduced a large exogenous shock into economies and markets. While the young age demographic and reduced ability to implement lockdowns may have resulted in less of an impact on frontier economies, the impact has still been significant.
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Inflation Trends Across Emerging Markets
Inflation drivers across emerging markets will be of focus to investors as the economy looks to recover from the pandemic.
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Emerging Asian equities expected to perform best over the next five years
We expect emerging Asian equities to deliver among the best returns in global stock markets over the next half decade, especially in dollar terms (10.8 per cent per year on average, or double the global market). We calculate that their outperformance – which stems mainly from superior earnings growth and currency appreciation – could amount to 35 per cent on a cumulative basis over the US in that timeframe.
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4 things global financial cycles are telling us
As much of the global economy climbs out of the pandemic-induced downturn, investors are scrutinising every new economic data point for clues to the outlook for growth and inflation. I think they should also take the 30,000-foot view afforded by financial cycles, which can offer a long-term perspective on the trajectory of an economy.
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Fixed Income Investment Outlook - 3Q 2021
In the day-to-day task of investing, it’s often easy to ascribe significance to individual central bank meetings, speeches or policy pronouncements that, with a bit more time, simply blur into background static
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Country head focus – Switzerland
The country’s financiers and fintech entrepreneurs are developing fresh ideas that are influencing the global evolution of sustainable finance
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The impact of China’s lending on Emerging Market Debt
The increasing prominence of China as a financier of developing nations has changed the landscape of emerging market debt investing.
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A post-Covid structural change in developed markets: the strong political will to invest in the US
What matters to fixed income investors is the macro-financial environment that will prevail after the strong rebound in growth and inflation expected in H2.
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Pent-Up Consumer Demand Fuels Us Market Recover
Grant Bowers explains why pent-up consumer demand should present a fertile environment for stocks and highlights some opportunities he sees in US equities.
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Home bias: The rise and rise of economic nationalism
The new US president is prepared to carry the torch for a shrinking band of globalists, but the growing trend of economic nationalism will prove hard to reverse.
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“Hidden Quality” in International Equity Markets
Traditional “quality” companies are bunched in a few sectors and appear expensive—is there a more subtle definition that can uncover “hidden” quality?
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Macroeconomic Picture - April 2021
United States: thanks to fiscal aid and still extremely accommodative monetary policy, the US economy will likely recover much of the ground lost during 2020, returning to prepandemic levels around mid-year, while the labour market will take longer to recover fully.
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Covid, productivity and long-term growth: further secular stagnation or positive reversal?
While the spectacular Covid shock may easily lead to exaggerate extrapolations, it cannot be ruled out that it will matter for long-term productivity and growth. However, the effects could work both ways. Reasons why the current crisis could further worsen “secular stagnation” are many, yet there are also a channels through which it could work positively.
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A not-so-great rotation in developed market equities
Equity investors, quite rightly, remain resolutely focused on the positive, medium-term outlook for corporate profits rather than the near-term economic challenges.
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International Small Caps: Quality Plus Quantity
Screening for quality in international small caps is important, but what sort of “quality” should we look for, and can we find it without narrowing down our choice too much?
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Biden, Taxes and Your Portfolio
Higher personal taxation under a Biden administration could strengthen the case for municipal bonds and tax-managed equity strategies.
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Water: a pervasive resource and a portfolio staple
The transition of many economies from a depletive to a sustainable model with better social and environmental outcomes creates a wide range of investment opportunities in many areas including water, a resource that is fundamental to not only life, but also across end-markets from the consumer to industrial businesses.
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Multi-sector fixed income – The outlook for US and eurozone debt in 2021
Yields of sovereign developed market debt have fallen to record lows in 2020. Daniel Morris, chief market strategist, and Olivier De Larouzière (OL), head of multi-strategy fixed income, discuss the outlook for bonds in 2021.