All Developed Market articles – Page 5
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - February 2022
In 2022, the US economy will face a progressive deceleration in economic activity, hovering above trend first and eventually converging to potential in 2023. Activity indicators are pointing to a notable deceleration at the end of Q4 and start of Q1 (in part Covid-related), which we expect to be short-lived.
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White papersUS Stocks: Enduring Advantages for Testing Times
After three supercharged years for US equities, many investors wonder whether the market still has fuel for 2022. While higher valuations warrant caution, we believe a carefully chosen allocation can capture advantages inherent to the US market that underpin solid long-term return potential.
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Podcast2022 Outlook Series: Investing Through Climate Risk
Climate change is already having material impacts on public and private asset classes across developed and emerging markets.
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White papersLessons from COP26 ‘We have to realise that we can’t enjoy everything the way we have in perpetuity’
Covid may well have set back the march toward a greener planet, says Mitch Reznick, CFA, Head of Research and Sustainable Fixed Income.
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White papersEM inflation elevated but still relatively contained; local markets could offer relative value
The gap between emerging market (EM) inflation over developed market (DM) inflation has remained contained this time, in part due to weak economic conditions, muted domestic credit creation and proactive EM central banks. Tighter EM financial conditions should anchor longer term EM inflation expectations.
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White papersFrontier markets post-pandemic
The pandemic has introduced a large exogenous shock into economies and markets. While the young age demographic and reduced ability to implement lockdowns may have resulted in less of an impact on frontier economies, the impact has still been significant.
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White papers4 things global financial cycles are telling us
As much of the global economy climbs out of the pandemic-induced downturn, investors are scrutinising every new economic data point for clues to the outlook for growth and inflation. I think they should also take the 30,000-foot view afforded by financial cycles, which can offer a long-term perspective on the trajectory of an economy.
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook - 3Q 2021
In the day-to-day task of investing, it’s often easy to ascribe significance to individual central bank meetings, speeches or policy pronouncements that, with a bit more time, simply blur into background static
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White papersCountry head focus – Switzerland
The country’s financiers and fintech entrepreneurs are developing fresh ideas that are influencing the global evolution of sustainable finance
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White papersA post-Covid structural change in developed markets: the strong political will to invest in the US
What matters to fixed income investors is the macro-financial environment that will prevail after the strong rebound in growth and inflation expected in H2.
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White papers“Hidden Quality” in International Equity Markets
Traditional “quality” companies are bunched in a few sectors and appear expensive—is there a more subtle definition that can uncover “hidden” quality?
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - April 2021
United States: thanks to fiscal aid and still extremely accommodative monetary policy, the US economy will likely recover much of the ground lost during 2020, returning to prepandemic levels around mid-year, while the labour market will take longer to recover fully.
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White papersCovid, productivity and long-term growth: further secular stagnation or positive reversal?
While the spectacular Covid shock may easily lead to exaggerate extrapolations, it cannot be ruled out that it will matter for long-term productivity and growth. However, the effects could work both ways. Reasons why the current crisis could further worsen “secular stagnation” are many, yet there are also a channels through which it could work positively.
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White papersA not-so-great rotation in developed market equities
Equity investors, quite rightly, remain resolutely focused on the positive, medium-term outlook for corporate profits rather than the near-term economic challenges.
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White papersInternational Small Caps: Quality Plus Quantity
Screening for quality in international small caps is important, but what sort of “quality” should we look for, and can we find it without narrowing down our choice too much?
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White papersBiden, Taxes and Your Portfolio
Higher personal taxation under a Biden administration could strengthen the case for municipal bonds and tax-managed equity strategies.
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White papersWater: a pervasive resource and a portfolio staple
The transition of many economies from a depletive to a sustainable model with better social and environmental outcomes creates a wide range of investment opportunities in many areas including water, a resource that is fundamental to not only life, but also across end-markets from the consumer to industrial businesses.
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White papersMulti-sector fixed income – The outlook for US and eurozone debt in 2021
Yields of sovereign developed market debt have fallen to record lows in 2020. Daniel Morris, chief market strategist, and Olivier De Larouzière (OL), head of multi-strategy fixed income, discuss the outlook for bonds in 2021.
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White papersMacroeconomic picture - November 2020
The US economy rebounded in Q3, exceeding our expectations and leading to a further upside revision of our 2020 GDP forecasts. However, given the signs of a progressive deceleration in several economic and behavioural indicators, influenced by the new rise in Covid-19 cases, we are more cautious about the speed at which the economy will enter 2021.
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White papersMacroeconomic picture - October 2020
Q3 economic rebound exceeds our expectations on GDP, prompting an upside revision to our August forecasts. Yet, the deceleration in late Q3 of several indicators is keeping us from extrapolating Q3 momentum into Q4. After some softening in 2020 H2, headline inflation will move along a gradual upward trend, stabilising around 2% from mid-2021 with possible temporary overshooting. As November 3 approaches, policymakers’ focus is shifting, with an increased risk that 2020 fiscal policy will become more diluted than expected, and with little visibility on the Phase 4 deal in particular.
