All Developed Market articles – Page 7
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White papersValuations, BBBs And Policy Change - European Investment Grade Outlook | March 2019
Companies in most developed market economies have enjoyed years of super-low borrowing costs The European IG market has increased in size from a face value of around €800 billion in 2005 to more than €2.1 trillion by the end of January But what might happen to companies were borrowing ...
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White papersJapan’s strengthening fundamentals go unnoticed
Global investors underappreciate the changing behaviour of Japanese companies, which has made them more resilient and well positioned to benefit from global reflation.
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White papersMarket Risk Insights
Mountaineers know that acclimatisation provides the best chance of success in an attempt on a formidable peak – and there are strong parallels with investing. In 2019, investors will need to be the equivalent of mountain-fit in their terrain: the markets
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White papersTrade Deals and Political Realities
Could the USMCA accord among the US, Canada and Mexico, and a potential US-China trade deal get approval from the Democrats-led House of Representatives?
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White papersBig Challenges for Equities, Bonds and FX Markets
A series of challenges, from the debt ceiling to Fed quantitative tightening to Brexit, will be confronting a variety of markets.
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White papersChina more appealing based on progress in trade negotiations
The recent statements following the bilateral meetings between the US and China suggest that important progress has been made, and more details are emerging compared to the quiet early January round.
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White papersFocus on fundamentals to ride turbulent markets
Investors are facing an unsettled environment. For 2019 we think it will be key to look at three areas:
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White papersEvent Risk Enters Phase 3: What's At Stake in 2019?
Event risk outcomes could be dragged out in 2019 as issues like the trade war and questions over when the Fed might halt rate hikes simmer in markets.
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White papersWhy Investors Should Care About French “Yellow Vests” Protest
The Gilets Jaunes (Yellow Vests) are a largely spontaneous protest movement that emerged in France, in October. With no declared political affiliation, they called for lower taxes and a higher level of social transfers and public services.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy Special Edition: Outlook 2019
With late cycle features continuing to materialise and a higher level of vulnerability developing due to the uncertain geopolitical backdrop, 2019 will require investors to embrace a more prudent approach, despite the benign global economic outlook.
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White papersFrom G20: Short-Term Relief, But It Is Not The Final Word On Trade Disputes
The latest G20 demonstrates some temporary progress in the US/China relationship. An increase of tariff rates in January 2019 was put on hold and the possibility for an additional tranche of tariffs for the rest of US imports from China ($267bn) is also further delayed, at least. China has found the right entry point to give some concessions to the US on sensitive topics for President Trump.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views: October 2018
The hot summer in emerging markets has been a key investor theme in the third quarter of this year. While the ongoing US/China trade tensions continue to weigh on investor sentiment, the sequence of country-specific stories (Turkey, Argentina and South Africa) contributed to the almost indiscriminate repricing of EM assets, starting with plummeting EM currencies.
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White papersStrategic Relative Value: Q3 2018
A quarterly look at how macro events are driving relative value around the globe.
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White papers
Enhancing Equity Index Portfolio Returns Using Select Sector Futures
A traditional sector rotation strategy takes into consideration the business cycle and where current conditions place the market within the cycle, along with which sectors might out- or under- perform others versus the broad market.1 This paper will explore how sector rotation strategy practices may be used by a risk manager to achieve enhanced performance from event-driven price action in addition to long-term cycle rotation.
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White papersAsset Class Return Forecasts: Q3 2018
The current global expansion is set to run until 2020, with above potential growth in most countries in 2018 and 2019. However, the global GDP growth has started to decelerate and we expect it to slow further in 2020.
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White papersGlobal Investment Views: August 2018
Concerns about trade continue to take centre stage. While US assets have so far been resilient amid escalating protectionist rhetoric, markets targeted by tariffs are under pressure.
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White papers2018 Midyear Outlook: (Still) Risk On
Investors are facing some pretty big questions: How long will the economy continue to expand? How will rising interest rates affect my portfolio? Will volatility continue to climb? Do geopolitics (or even just political posturing) really matter?
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White papersProtectionism intensifies: country and sector selection to mitigate its effects
As a base case, we expect limited tariffs will be implemented on different fronts with relatively controlled macro impacts while talks continue. Although talks have become more contentious, we do still see space for negotiation among the various parties. This is the main difference vs a proper “trade war”.
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White papersStrategic Relative Value: Q2 2018
Even modest upward interest rate adjustments can be disruptive to risk markets when they collide with slowing economic growth, shifting monetary regimes, and geopolitical shocks.
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White papersAsset Allocation Update: Strong earnings prompt US equities upgrade
Amid background noise such as ongoing trade skirmishes involving the US, the evolving Chinese economy and geo-political tensions, we have spent time analysing recent market movements and the implications for risk assets.
