All Developed Market articles – Page 7
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Four charts that show why “old tech” might surprise income investors
What happens when tech grows up?
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The Elizabeth Warren Moment
E. Warren is now neck-and-neck with J. Biden (27%) in the Democratic primary polls and far ahead of B. Sanders (15%).From her fifth-place position just six months ago, she has risen 21 points in the polls since then, while Biden has lost four points and Sanders, six. Bookmakers now put her odds of winning the nomination at more than 50%, vs. less than 20% for Biden and 6% for Sanders.
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Flashforward: Drawing Parallels With 1999/2000
Investors in the UK and overseas are adopting extreme positioning in their hunt for defensive growth. In doing so the elastic has become very stretched and a sharp rotation could be overdue. This market dynamic is reminiscent of 1999/2000 whereby ‘old economy’ stocks are discarded in favour of ‘new economy’ ones.
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Strategic Relative Value Q2 2019
A quarterly look at how macro events are driving relative value around the globe.
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European elections: not a game changer, opportunities from divergences
The results are broadly in line with what opinion polls had indicated, although with a slight “pro-institution” surprise. Key takeaways are, first, a decline in the votes for the two large political groups which are the social-democrats and the Christian-democrats or moderate right; these two parties had, since 1979, commanded a combined majority in the European Parliament, and this is now over.
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US-China trade: continuing the talks while making the war
In our opinion, investors should dismiss the idea that talks could break down, albeit uncertainties remain. Recent work has focused on details and wording, with the majority of the agreement document having been completed. However, several major issues remain, and on these it is largely up to Trump and XI to make final decisions.
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German Equities Present Opportunities to Combat Headwinds
In this Q&A, Rob Smith, Manager of the Barings German Growth strategy, shares his thoughts on how German equities are positioned to combat various headwinds, and which sectors the team expects future growth to come from.
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Redefining Bank of America: an era of responsible growth
Bank of America has slashed costs and tightened risk controls in recent years as it moves on from its crisis-era legacies. In this case study, we examine the bank’s conservative approach and our decade-long engagement with the company.
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Valuations, BBBs And Policy Change - European Investment Grade Outlook | March 2019
Companies in most developed market economies have enjoyed years of super-low borrowing costs The European IG market has increased in size from a face value of around €800 billion in 2005 to more than €2.1 trillion by the end of January But what might happen to companies were borrowing ...
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Japan’s strengthening fundamentals go unnoticed
Global investors underappreciate the changing behaviour of Japanese companies, which has made them more resilient and well positioned to benefit from global reflation.
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2019 long-term capital market expectations
We believe the global growth outlook is improving, supported by fiscal stimulus around the world, the pro-growth policies of the incoming US administration and stabilized growth in China. We also see inflation hovering in the moderate zone for the next five to 10 years.
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Market Risk Insights
Mountaineers know that acclimatisation provides the best chance of success in an attempt on a formidable peak – and there are strong parallels with investing. In 2019, investors will need to be the equivalent of mountain-fit in their terrain: the markets
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Trade Deals and Political Realities
Could the USMCA accord among the US, Canada and Mexico, and a potential US-China trade deal get approval from the Democrats-led House of Representatives?
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Big Challenges for Equities, Bonds and FX Markets
A series of challenges, from the debt ceiling to Fed quantitative tightening to Brexit, will be confronting a variety of markets.
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China more appealing based on progress in trade negotiations
The recent statements following the bilateral meetings between the US and China suggest that important progress has been made, and more details are emerging compared to the quiet early January round.
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Focus on fundamentals to ride turbulent markets
Investors are facing an unsettled environment. For 2019 we think it will be key to look at three areas:
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Event Risk Enters Phase 3: What's At Stake in 2019?
Event risk outcomes could be dragged out in 2019 as issues like the trade war and questions over when the Fed might halt rate hikes simmer in markets.
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Why Investors Should Care About French “Yellow Vests” Protest
The Gilets Jaunes (Yellow Vests) are a largely spontaneous protest movement that emerged in France, in October. With no declared political affiliation, they called for lower taxes and a higher level of social transfers and public services.
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Cross Asset Investment Strategy Special Edition: Outlook 2019
With late cycle features continuing to materialise and a higher level of vulnerability developing due to the uncertain geopolitical backdrop, 2019 will require investors to embrace a more prudent approach, despite the benign global economic outlook.
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From G20: Short-Term Relief, But It Is Not The Final Word On Trade Disputes
The latest G20 demonstrates some temporary progress in the US/China relationship. An increase of tariff rates in January 2019 was put on hold and the possibility for an additional tranche of tariffs for the rest of US imports from China ($267bn) is also further delayed, at least. China has found the right entry point to give some concessions to the US on sensitive topics for President Trump.