All Developed Market articles – Page 7
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White papersFixed Income Investment Outlook - 3Q 2021
In the day-to-day task of investing, it’s often easy to ascribe significance to individual central bank meetings, speeches or policy pronouncements that, with a bit more time, simply blur into background static
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White papersCountry head focus – Switzerland
The country’s financiers and fintech entrepreneurs are developing fresh ideas that are influencing the global evolution of sustainable finance
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White papersA post-Covid structural change in developed markets: the strong political will to invest in the US
What matters to fixed income investors is the macro-financial environment that will prevail after the strong rebound in growth and inflation expected in H2.
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White papers“Hidden Quality” in International Equity Markets
Traditional “quality” companies are bunched in a few sectors and appear expensive—is there a more subtle definition that can uncover “hidden” quality?
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - April 2021
United States: thanks to fiscal aid and still extremely accommodative monetary policy, the US economy will likely recover much of the ground lost during 2020, returning to prepandemic levels around mid-year, while the labour market will take longer to recover fully.
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White papersCovid, productivity and long-term growth: further secular stagnation or positive reversal?
While the spectacular Covid shock may easily lead to exaggerate extrapolations, it cannot be ruled out that it will matter for long-term productivity and growth. However, the effects could work both ways. Reasons why the current crisis could further worsen “secular stagnation” are many, yet there are also a channels through which it could work positively.
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White papersA not-so-great rotation in developed market equities
Equity investors, quite rightly, remain resolutely focused on the positive, medium-term outlook for corporate profits rather than the near-term economic challenges.
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White papersInternational Small Caps: Quality Plus Quantity
Screening for quality in international small caps is important, but what sort of “quality” should we look for, and can we find it without narrowing down our choice too much?
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White papersBiden, Taxes and Your Portfolio
Higher personal taxation under a Biden administration could strengthen the case for municipal bonds and tax-managed equity strategies.
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White papersWater: a pervasive resource and a portfolio staple
The transition of many economies from a depletive to a sustainable model with better social and environmental outcomes creates a wide range of investment opportunities in many areas including water, a resource that is fundamental to not only life, but also across end-markets from the consumer to industrial businesses.
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White papersMulti-sector fixed income – The outlook for US and eurozone debt in 2021
Yields of sovereign developed market debt have fallen to record lows in 2020. Daniel Morris, chief market strategist, and Olivier De Larouzière (OL), head of multi-strategy fixed income, discuss the outlook for bonds in 2021.
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White papersMacroeconomic picture - November 2020
The US economy rebounded in Q3, exceeding our expectations and leading to a further upside revision of our 2020 GDP forecasts. However, given the signs of a progressive deceleration in several economic and behavioural indicators, influenced by the new rise in Covid-19 cases, we are more cautious about the speed at which the economy will enter 2021.
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White papersMacroeconomic picture - October 2020
Q3 economic rebound exceeds our expectations on GDP, prompting an upside revision to our August forecasts. Yet, the deceleration in late Q3 of several indicators is keeping us from extrapolating Q3 momentum into Q4. After some softening in 2020 H2, headline inflation will move along a gradual upward trend, stabilising around 2% from mid-2021 with possible temporary overshooting. As November 3 approaches, policymakers’ focus is shifting, with an increased risk that 2020 fiscal policy will become more diluted than expected, and with little visibility on the Phase 4 deal in particular.
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White papersBrexit Update
Brexit occurred on January 31, 2020, and we are now in the transition period until December 31. Therefore, rules and regulations in the UK are still aligned with those in the European Union, but the United Kingdom is no longer a member state, hence talk of the EU-27 rather than the EU-28.
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White papersMacroeconomic picture - September 2020
A new Covid-19 outbreak in several states in July and August imposed more caution in reopening the economy, slowing recovery momentum. The labour market remain distressed. In the coming quarters, the US economy is expected to continue along a gradual and progressive recovery path, underpinned by easy monetary policy and a delayed new round of fiscal support.
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White papersPositioning for the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election
For investors and markets still reeling from the global pandemic—and facing a protracted, volatile economic recovery—a new source of uncertainty is fast approaching: the U.S. presidential election in November. Historically, equity markets have posted below-average total returns during an election year.
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White papersEmerging market equities – Assessing the regional prospects
Even if we expect emerging market equities to outperform their developed market peers, country and sector differences, as always, will be significant.
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White papersWhy farmland now?
Amidst unprecedented market volatility, Westchester Group Investment Management, an investment specialist of Nuveen, explains why they believe farmland is a durable and consistent investment.
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - July 2020
United States: while hard data help size the lockdown-induced impact on Q2 activity and production, soft and high-frequency data are showing a gradual pickup. As pent-up demand comes through, activity will rebound in Q3, followed by further improvement in Q4. We expect GDP to drop by 4.5%-6.5% y/y in 2020, followed by a rebound of 3.0- 4.0% y/y in 2021, and to return to its pre-Covid-19 level by mid-2022. Lockdowns have also impacted inflation, which is driven by shifts in demand and has exhibited short-term weaknesses in 2020, with reflating forecast in 2021 on base effects and a pickup in demand.
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White papersMacroeconomic picture – June 2020
The coronavirus crisis has pushed the U.S. economy into a sharp downturn, with severe disruptions of businesses and mass layoffs. Unemployment has surged into double-digit territory (14.7%); confidence on both the consumer and business sides has plummeted; and consumer inflation has started to reflect the consequences of the lockdowns, with headline CPI falling to 0.3% YoY (1.5% prior). The timing and profile of the recovery are still highly uncertain, but we expect GDP to contract between 4.5% and 6.5% YoY, with inflation remaining significantly subdued, with significant risks of moving into negative territory during the year
