Macroeconomic Picture - February 2022

In 2022, the US economy will face a progressive deceleration in economic activity, hovering above trend first and eventually converging to potential in 2023. Activity indicators are pointing to a notable deceleration at the end of Q4 and start of Q1 (in part Covid-related), which we expect to be short-lived. 

Progressively less fiscal and monetary policy accommodation will drive the normalisation we expect. Inflation will gradually retrace lower from recent highs while remaining above 3% for most of the year, as transitory drivers fade, leaving more structural drivers supporting inflation

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