The Elizabeth Warren Moment

E. Warren is now neck-and-neck with J. Biden (27%) in the Democratic primary polls and far ahead of B. Sanders (15%).From her fifth-place position just six months ago, she has risen 21 points in the polls since then, while Biden has lost four points and Sanders, six. Bookmakers now put her odds of winning the nomination at more than 50%, vs. less than 20% for Biden and 6% for Sanders. 

If this trend goes on, that would reshuffle the cards, as many investors had until now believed that a Trump-Biden match in the 2020 would have only limited repercussions, as Biden looks very conventional, while Trump’s pro-market platform (on taxes, regulation, etc.), which had initially played in his favour, have ultimately been clouded by his protectionism and muddled unilateralism. 

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