All Credit articles – Page 4
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White papers
Corporate Credit Outlook 2024: High Tide for Yield?
Weakening economic fundamentals shouldn’t scare away corporate bond investors in 2024—provided they keep a close eye on credit quality.
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White papers
A Compelling Value Proposition in EM IG Corporate Debt
Elevated yields, improving credit quality and lower interest rate risk are presenting a strong case for EM investment grade corporate debt—especially in a soft landing scenario.
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Some Credit for Active Management
Tempted by high yield? Here’s why we think investors may want to consider resisting the temptation to invest passively.
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White papers
Fixed-Income Outlook 2024: Bonds Roar Back
The tide has turned for bonds. Here’s what we think is in store for 2024.
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White papers
The what, why and how of the global fixed income and municipal markets
The evolving fixed income market environment - Key 2023 themes
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White papers
Taxable Municipal bonds: yields moving higher
The taxable municipal bond market experienced negative third quarter returns in sympathy with U.S. Treasuries. With the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) nearing the end of its rate hike cycle, higher yields have increased future expected returns, given yields are now at levels not seen over the last decade. We believe portfolios should be rewarded by assuming a modestly longer duration profile while adding credit risk.
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White papers
Time for credit – why we like investment grade
To better understand the impact of potential macroeconomic scenarios on the asset class, we have undertaken a sensitivity analysis of the global investment grade corporate bond market. This sensitivity analysis points to one clear implication: the importance of investing in fixed income despite ongoing uncertainty. We believe fixed income, in particular credit markets, have become a much more attractive proposition for investors.
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White papers
‘Peak rates’ and opportunities for credit selection in 2024
After two years of declines, 2023 proved to be another tough year for bond investors. However, a powerful rebound towards year end helped the global bond index end the year in positive territory for the first time in three years. Below, Jim Leaviss, CIO Fixed Income at M&G Investments, shares his views on the prospects for bond markets in today’s ‘peak rates’ environment, while senior credit portfolio manager Richard Ryan looks at the opportunities presented by fundamental credit selection.
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White papers
ECB on hold supportive for Euro credit markets and govies
Key takeaways from the European Central Bank’s meeting
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White papers
Cross Asset Investment Strategy - December 2023
The impact of rate increases on businesses is expected to intensify in 2024. Businesses haven’t been impacted much by higher rates so far because they have used the cash they collected during Covid and refinance needs have been limited.
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White papers
2024 investment outlook: Selectivity remains the key
Views from the TIAA General Account: What are your expectations for growth, inflation and interest rates in 2024?
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White papers
Macroeconomic and financial market forecasts - December 2023
Macroeconomic forecasts as of 14 December 2023
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White papers
Macroeconomics, Geopolitics, and Strategy - December 2023
Following 3.1% growth in 2023, we expect global growth to slow to 2.4% in 2024, well below the IMF’s expectations of 2.9% in 2024 and the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8%. The weaker performance of advanced economies is one of the main reasons for this divergence. Indeed, we expect them to decelerate from 1.5% this year to 0.7% in 2024, while the IMF forecasts advanced economy growth at 1.4% next year.
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White papers
Higher rates will start to bite the corporate sector in 2024
The impact of rate increases on businesses is expected to intensify in 2024. Businesses haven’t been impacted much by higher rates so far because they have used the cash they collected during Covid and refinance needs have been limited. However, refinancing needs will rise in 2024 Small and medium sized companies and lower rated HY issuers will be most impacted. The spillover from higher rates will be more limited for IG companies.
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White papers
Shifting Focus: 2024 Insurance Investment Outlook
As US insurance investors turn their eyes toward 2024, they’ll face a macroeconomic backdrop in transition. With this in mind, their efforts should include maintaining duration positioning, diversifying risks, emphasizing quality as credit conditions begin to soften, identifying relative value opportunities and balancing private allocations with liquidity considerations.
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White papers
Tracking the Transition from Tighter Policy to Corporate Spreads
We explore the historical transmission from tighter monetary policy to corporate bond spreads and the respective investment implications under our “weakflation” scenario.
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The Balance Between Corporate Profit Margins and Economic Resilience
This blog shares our views on the relationship between corporate margins and different U.S. economic growth scenarios using our corporate profit model to estimate performance.
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White papers
European High Yield: A Clear Case for Active Management
Passive European high-yield strategies may not be as cheap as they appear, and may pose more risk than you think.
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Podcast
All the Credit, Ep. 46 - Realities in Rates
A discussion on the end of the hiking cycle, the impact of fiscal deficits on long-term rates, and the interplay between rates, curve shape, and the economy.
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Video
The Inside Track - Public and Private Markets Outlook; Episode 3: The Credit Continuum
(08:27) In this short video, experts from our public and private markets teams share their outlook on credit markets.