All Commentary articles – Page 79
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White papersMarket Scenarios and Risks - December 2022
We maintain the probabilities of our scenarios unchanged. Some of the risk factors we identify may occur in our central scenario, which is probably not yet fully priced-in by markets.
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White papersLula is back and already scoring goals
Lula netted a goal in Egypt at COP27 in the fight against climate change. However, it was an own-goal on the spending front that unsettled the markets and threw doubt on expectations of a prudently populist policy direction. We still believe Lula’s policies will be of a centre-left nature, with the help of the markets, though risks have risen.
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White papersRecent developments do not change our expectations for the Russia-Ukraine war
The war in Ukraine will continue to dictate Europe’s prospects in 2023. It will shape local and EU politics, energy security, industrial policy, and international relations. In this article, we outline our expectations for the next phase of the war and offer an optimistic prospect for peace negotiations to lead to a cessation of hostilities in the second half of the year.
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White papersWhen fiscal policy puts the European institutions under pressure
“The new governance proposed by the Commission goes in the right direction, but risks of failing are high.”
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White papersThe Asset Allocation Facts Have Changed
Why we think this year’s dramatic rise in bond yields, together with recent signs that inflation may have peaked, demands a radical re-think of asset allocation.
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White papersHardening Borders: Opportunities in Security, Health and Trade
Seeking the potential beneficiaries of a new age of deglobalization and insecurity.
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White papers5 things to know about the future of semiconductors
How fast things can change: there was a major shortage of semiconductors at the start of the pandemic, and now the industry is grappling with too much inventory in parts of the supply chain. This has led to a sell-off in semiconductor stocks and prompted questions about the depth and duration of this downturn.
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White papersInvestment Outlook – Positive but tempered return expectations
There were few places to hide in 2022. Inflation, monetary policy tightening and geopolitical risks marked a stark contrast to the drivers of returns in 2020 and 2021; the backdrop ultimately forced a revaluation of fixed income and equity assets. From low to high inflation, and from low to high interest rates, returns suffered as markets adjusted to the new paradigm.
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White papersMacro outlook – The clouds around the inflation peak
The inflation shock has defined 2022. Not primarily because as usual, by eroding purchasing power and corporate margins it has hampered consumption and investment – private spending has been remarkably resilient actually in the developed world given the circumstances – but because it has marked the end of an era for monetary policy.
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White papers2023 Outlook: Global Real Estate - 2
In this roundtable discussion, our experts across real estate debt and equity discuss how they are navigating today’s challenges and weigh in on where investors can turn to find attractive returns.
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Video2023 Global Real Estate Outlook - 1
Where can real estate investors turn to find attractive risk-adjusted returns?
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White papersThe Market Effect of Acute Biodiversity Risk: the Case of Corporate Bonds
In this paper, we investigate the relationship between biodiversity and companies, through the lens of corporate bonds. We focus on acute biodiversity events and address biodiversity as a risk, considering its looming losses.
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White papersEurope’s Political Strength Will Buffer the Coming Downturn
The recession will be painful, but the “old continent” is proving surprisingly adept at facing new challenges
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White papers2023 Infrastructure Outlook
The infrastructure sector remains resilient despite the market turmoil in 2022. Secular trends such as digitalization and decarbonization will continue to drive the need for new investments.
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White papersEquities: Not All Growth is Created Equal
The indiscriminate sell-off in growth companies is creating potential opportunities in ‘true’ growth stocks, which are becoming increasingly undervalued amid the broader market decline.
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White papersSemiconductors: The Darkness Before the Dawn
Given the headwinds of a cyclical downturn in demand, high inventories, and rising tensions between China and the U.S., the semiconductor sector is being challenged. But there are a growing number of reasons to be optimistic about the share prices over the medium term.
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White papersThree things to watch in European high yield fixed income
European high yield bonds are warranting a closer look by investors given the significant re-pricing of fixed income markets during 2022.
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White papersInvesting in the fight against a worsening obesity epidemic
Obesity has quickly reached global epidemic proportions over recent years with levels close to tripling since 1975.
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White papersPensions Watch | Issue 22: What’s been happening and what’s on the horizon in the world of pensions
Given the ever-greater regularity of unanticipated impactful events with equally unpredictable tipping points, we look at the importance to pension scheme fiduciaries of risk management. In particular, we consider the need for both more inventive scenario analysis and stress testing of schemes’ resilience against a multitude of ever-present and emerging risks allied to more nimble governance.
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White papersFinding attractive relative value in sub-investment grade infrastructure debt
Many investors seek to mitigate the business and financial risks associated with infrastructure debt by primarily targeting the investment grade segment of the market. Such instruments are deemed to have a low risk of credit default by rating agency methodologies.
