All Commentary articles – Page 52
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White papersMacroeconomic Picture - December 2022
United States: Q3 GDP surprised to the upside, lifting 2022 average projections. However, our call for 2023-24 forecast has not changed significantly, with restrictive monetary policy dragging growth well below potential
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White papersMarket Scenarios and Risks - December 2022
We maintain the probabilities of our scenarios unchanged. Some of the risk factors we identify may occur in our central scenario, which is probably not yet fully priced-in by markets.
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White papersLula is back and already scoring goals
Lula netted a goal in Egypt at COP27 in the fight against climate change. However, it was an own-goal on the spending front that unsettled the markets and threw doubt on expectations of a prudently populist policy direction. We still believe Lula’s policies will be of a centre-left nature, with the help of the markets, though risks have risen.
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White papersRecent developments do not change our expectations for the Russia-Ukraine war
The war in Ukraine will continue to dictate Europe’s prospects in 2023. It will shape local and EU politics, energy security, industrial policy, and international relations. In this article, we outline our expectations for the next phase of the war and offer an optimistic prospect for peace negotiations to lead to a cessation of hostilities in the second half of the year.
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White papersWhen fiscal policy puts the European institutions under pressure
“The new governance proposed by the Commission goes in the right direction, but risks of failing are high.”
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White papersThe Asset Allocation Facts Have Changed
Why we think this year’s dramatic rise in bond yields, together with recent signs that inflation may have peaked, demands a radical re-think of asset allocation.
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White papersHardening Borders: Opportunities in Security, Health and Trade
Seeking the potential beneficiaries of a new age of deglobalization and insecurity.
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White papers2023 infrastructure outlook: Climate, macro drivers create tailwinds
ClearBridge Investments expect dire need for infrastructure spending to underpin growth for the next decade and beyond.
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White papersDisruptive Technology Views: Web2 network effects vs. Web3 crowd effects—the coming shift in value drivers
In this issue of Disruptive Technology Views, we explore the megatrend “expanding power of the crowd”; explain Web3 “tokenomic” supply; and introduce “QuantaVenture” capital, a new approach to venture capital.
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White papers5 things to know about the future of semiconductors
How fast things can change: there was a major shortage of semiconductors at the start of the pandemic, and now the industry is grappling with too much inventory in parts of the supply chain. This has led to a sell-off in semiconductor stocks and prompted questions about the depth and duration of this downturn.
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White papersInvestment Outlook – Positive but tempered return expectations
There were few places to hide in 2022. Inflation, monetary policy tightening and geopolitical risks marked a stark contrast to the drivers of returns in 2020 and 2021; the backdrop ultimately forced a revaluation of fixed income and equity assets. From low to high inflation, and from low to high interest rates, returns suffered as markets adjusted to the new paradigm.
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White papersMacro outlook – The clouds around the inflation peak
The inflation shock has defined 2022. Not primarily because as usual, by eroding purchasing power and corporate margins it has hampered consumption and investment – private spending has been remarkably resilient actually in the developed world given the circumstances – but because it has marked the end of an era for monetary policy.
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White papers2023 Outlook: Global Real Estate - 2
In this roundtable discussion, our experts across real estate debt and equity discuss how they are navigating today’s challenges and weigh in on where investors can turn to find attractive returns.
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Video2023 Global Real Estate Outlook - 1
Where can real estate investors turn to find attractive risk-adjusted returns?
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White papers2023 European fixed income outlook: Inflation likely to remain elevated
Europe faces a shallow recession, which markets have mainly priced in, but bond yields are likely to rise further before they stabilize, according to Franklin Templeton Fixed Income’s Head of European Fixed Income, David Zahn. However, he continues to believe that shrewd investors can find compelling opportunities among European bonds.
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White papersFood accessibility and security: An investment intangible
Explore issues stemming from food security and the impact financial markets can have in addressing potential solutions.
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White papersThe Market Effect of Acute Biodiversity Risk: the Case of Corporate Bonds
In this paper, we investigate the relationship between biodiversity and companies, through the lens of corporate bonds. We focus on acute biodiversity events and address biodiversity as a risk, considering its looming losses.
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White papersEurope’s Political Strength Will Buffer the Coming Downturn
The recession will be painful, but the “old continent” is proving surprisingly adept at facing new challenges
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White papersIs Relief on the Horizon for Rising Construction Costs?
In the past year, construction teams around the world have been facing increased cost pressures with rising steel and lumber indices. Materials, commodities, labor and supervision, subcontractors, and opportunistic cost in general are escalating in many places.
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White papers2023 Infrastructure Outlook
The infrastructure sector remains resilient despite the market turmoil in 2022. Secular trends such as digitalization and decarbonization will continue to drive the need for new investments.
