Main and alternative scenarios, and Macroeconomic forecasts as of 24 January
Main Scenario
Resilient multi-speed growth
GEOPOLITICS
Rising tensions and geo-economic fragmentation, including protectionism and sanctions.
- Disruptive trade policies and re routing of global supply chains as a reaction to tariffs.
- Ukraine-Russia: ongoing fighting, but ceasefire odds increase.
- Middle East: talks and conflicts likely.
- China-US: decline of relations.
- US-Europe relations under pressure.
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