Scenarios, risks and macroeconomic forecasts

Main and alternative scenarios, and Macroeconomic forecasts as of 24 January

Main Scenario

Resilient multi-speed growth

GEOPOLITICS

Rising tensions and geo-economic fragmentation, including protectionism and sanctions.

  • Disruptive trade policies and re routing of global supply chains as a reaction to tariffs.
  • Ukraine-Russia: ongoing fighting, but ceasefire odds increase.
  • Middle East: talks and conflicts likely.
  • China-US: decline of relations.
  • US-Europe relations under pressure.

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