“Resilient China’s growth highlights the economy’s ongoing efforts to adjust trade partnerships and manage tariff-related challenges, keeping it on track to reach its growth target for 2025.”
- Despite the ongoing trade war with the United States, China’s growth remained resilient thanks to trade diversification* into non-US markets.
- China is set to reach its 5% growth target for 2025, with less need for additional fiscal stimulus this year.
- While ongoing trade negotiations will keep uncertainty high, we see areas of resilience across emerging economies.
China’s economy recorded a higher-than-expected 5.2% YoY GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025. This confirms that the world’s second-largest economy has held up well so far despite the US tariff policy, supported by front-loading by exporters (increasing production ahead of export orders to avoid higher government taxes or tariffs that may be implemented after a deadline) and resilient shipments to markets outside the United States. However, domestic consumption weakened as government subsidies began to phase out in some regions. While this may lead to some softening in GDP growth in the second half of the year, China remains on track to achieve the government’s average growth target of 5.0% for 2025.
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