Earlier this year, massive trade uncertainty caused extreme market volatility. Since then, concerns over economic costs, retaliations, and legal challenges have eased tensions. Markets now price limited stress, suggesting peak tensions are behind and current tariffs have become the new norm. However, when considering Trump’s transactional approach: a sense of calm is often followed by renewed pressure. While peak stress may have passed and dealmaking may take priority, we still expect US trade policies and sustained tariffs to pressure supply chains and activity, fueling uncertainty and occasional volatility spikes.

We look to history to put this trade war in perspective. Most media references to today’s episode focuses on the 1930s: we believe this analogy offers an incomplete and reductive picture.

Since the 19th century, there have been roughly ten episodes of US protectionism. We focus on the ones that occurred after the 1861-65 American Civil War.

You can now read the full whitepaper at the link below