A more fragmented Emerging Markets world amid the Russia-Ukraine crisis

Although it is still difficult to anticipate how macro fundamentals will be impacted through this crisis, because of the uncertainty of its evolution and final outcome, our perspective is that the crisis is negatively affecting the growth outlook and raising inflationary pressures.

The impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is primarily on confidence and through commodity prices, given Russia is one of the world’s top exporters for grain, fertilisers, metals, oil and gas. Inflation will remain stubbornly high during the year, in the range of 6.5-7.5% for Emerging Markets (EM), while on the growth side, we have revised down global growth by 0.5% in 2022. For EM, the expected 2022 growth range is 3.3-.3.9%, with high country divergences.

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