All Russia articles
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White papersInfrastructure remains resilient despite macro challenges, April 2023
Tightening monetary policy, rising interest rates and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have shifted the macro landscape to the point where a global recession is possible in 2023.
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White papersIs 2023 the year of value-add?
These are, it has to be said, dramatic times. No sooner than most of the world was starting to emerge from the long shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic, it was confronted with another crisis.
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White papersA year of war in Ukraine: accelerating the energy transition and fragmentation
The West’s recent decision to send battle tanks to Ukraine to counteract a renewed Russian offensive increases the risk of a direct escalation with the West, while the likelihood of a protracted war remains somewhat higher. At the same time, most modern conflicts end in negotiations when both sides are sufficiently exhausted, and we consider the possibility of a ceasefire towards the end of 2023 and heading into 2024 is currently underappreciated.
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White papersReal Estate Convictions: Asset Manager’s View of the European Real Estate Markets
2022 saw a more pronounced than expected global slowdown, due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, rising inflation, a tightening of financial conditions and the persistence of the Covid-19 pandemic in China.
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White papersRisks and rewards for renewable energy investors in 2023
How does 2023 look for the renewables industry compared to 2022?
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White papersRecent developments do not change our expectations for the Russia-Ukraine war
The war in Ukraine will continue to dictate Europe’s prospects in 2023. It will shape local and EU politics, energy security, industrial policy, and international relations. In this article, we outline our expectations for the next phase of the war and offer an optimistic prospect for peace negotiations to lead to a cessation of hostilities in the second half of the year.
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White papersFalse sense of security from easing energy prices
Natural gas prices have plunged since their summer peak, supported by ample stocks and by the EU emergency measures. While near-term stress has eased, longer-term supply/demand tightness remains, calling for higher risk premiums. As Russia loses its leverage, demand elasticity and weather might be the new pivotal gas drivers.
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White papersFiorino: Can Europe’s banks withstand high-pressure energy disruption?
As Russia threatens to halt gas supplies to Europe, Fiorino looks at the impact of the European energy crisis on financial institutions in the region.
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White papersRussian for the Exit? How the Invasion Impacts European Auto Makers
We’ve previously examined the constraints impacting global supply chains, and with the first few months of the war in Ukraine now behind us, we look at how current supply chain pressures are impacting European car manufacturers, as well as potential risks should the conflict escalate further.
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White papersUkraine: the blackest of black swan events
When Russian tanks crossed Ukraine’s border early on February 24, it took the world by surprise. United States intelligence had been warning of the increasing dangers of an invasion, but few in the markets took the threat seriously, so when it happened, it was, in finance jargon, a black swan event. Mahdi Mokrane gives his view of the business impact.
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White papersRussian Gas Flows Face New Obstacles
The risk-off tone and heightened volatility in markets continued this week. Disruptions in European gas supplies (see page 2) led the euro to depreciate against the U.S. dollar, approaching 2016 lows. Meanwhile, elevated inflation data in the U.S. buoyed stagflation fears and expectations of an aggressive Fed tightening path, leading equities and the U.S. 10-year yield lower.
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White papersUkraine: where do we stand?
By calling the war in Ukraine a «tectonic shift in European history», European leaders are giving an indication of the regime changes this war could lead to in the medium term.
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White papersA more fragmented Emerging Markets world amid the Russia-Ukraine crisis
Although it is still difficult to anticipate how macro fundamentals will be impacted through this crisis, because of the uncertainty of its evolution and final outcome, our perspective is that the crisis is negatively affecting the growth outlook and raising inflationary pressures.
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White papersWar Distress Hasn’t Derailed Western Growth Yet
The U.S. announced a new list of penalties against Russian elites, lawmakers, and entities, and there are discussions about imposing sanctions on Russia’s gold reserves—though not yet passed. Meanwhile, the EU and G7 are expected to announce further restrictions on business in Russia.
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White papersQ&A: impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on emerging market debt
Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine, which has become Europe’s largest ground war in generations, has impacted millions of people and triggered a large-scale humanitarian crisis as vulnerable Ukrainians take shelter or flee their homes. The intensification and spread of the conflict is deeply troubling and is having a devastating impact on those people caught in the crisis.
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White papersA Time to Tighten
The military and economic responses to Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to garner attention, as ongoing disruptions in oil and agriculture flows will add to inflation pressures in much of the world.
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White papersIn support of Ukraine
All of us at Federated Hermes have been disturbed by the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by Russia. As shocking images of bombs demolishing buildings in Ukraine’s major cities and harrowing tales of refugees – including orphans – seeking safety beyond the borders of their homeland flood our televisions and social media feeds, we stand with the Ukrainian people on the side of freedom, independence and democracy and condemn the Russian government’s aggression.
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White papersIf Sanctions Didn’t Stop the War, They Can Still Shape the Peace
After Ukraine’s allies decide how much to ratchet up pressure on Russia, they will face tough choices on how to ratchet down.
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BlogUkraine conflict: UK real estate impacts
In our latest blog on the conflict in Ukraine, we examine the immediate effect on the UK institutional real estate market and make some tentative observations on potential long-term implications for real assets.
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White papersHow might the Ukraine crisis affect commercial real estate markets?
Our experts expect the direct implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine to be modest. We explain why.
