By calling the war in Ukraine a «tectonic shift in European history», European leaders are giving an indication of the regime changes this war could lead to in the medium term.
In the short term, the economic consequences of the war will depend on how long and how intense the conflict is. A few elements allow us to make an initial assessment after one month of war:
- Russian forces are bogged down on the ground, experiencing serious logistical problems (lack of fuel, rations and perhaps even ammunition) and are suffering initial military setbacks.
- The resistance and fighting spirit of the Ukrainians, supplied with weapons by at least 28 countries, is proving effective. The fight is more intense and longer than Russian military strategists had anticipated. The human and material cost for the Russians is considerable. Ukrainian officials estimate that some 17,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, which is more than during the war in Afghanistan (15,000 dead in 10 years).
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