All Risk Management articles – Page 6
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White papers
Toning down the optimism of backtests
Past performance does not guarantee future returns. This statement is true of any strategy, be it of a systematic or discretionary nature. Systematic strategies seemingly provide a little more comfort in the form of lengthy historical backtests, which indeed never look bad.
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White papers
Market Scenarios and Risks - October 2022
We maintain the content and probabilities of our scenarios. Note that some of the risk factors we identify may occur in our central scenario, which is probably not yet fully priced-in by markets. It would take a combination of risk factors for the downside scenario to materialise. The downside is counterbalanced by an upside scenario, that of a rapid decline in inflation due to an easing of gas prices and/or to the combined tightening of global monetary policies, the impact of which can be underestimated.
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White papers
Accessing CLOs: risk, return and liquidity considerations
Outlines how to access and invest in the CLO market Compares open-end vs. closed-end CLO fund structures and single-manager and multimanager CLO approaches
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White papers
Fast Filtering with Large Option Panels: Implications for Asset Pricing
The cross-section of options holds great promise for identifying return distributions and risk premia, but estimating dynamic option valuation models with latent state variables is challenging when using large option panels.
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White papers
Managing the Risks of a Low-Carbon Portfolio
We recognize that much of the world still runs on fossil fuel. However, we firmly believe investors can construct portfolios that substantially reduce their carbon footprints while retaining exposure to all sectors—including energy.
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White papers
ECB meeting: bold rate hike; watch out for more to come
What is your take on the September ECB meeting and what could the next steps be?
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White papers
Articulating asset allocation across different time horizons
In a previous paper, we addressed the issue of how to set investment objectives. In this paper, we address another key issue in the definition of asset allocation: how to articulate it across different time horizons.
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White papers
The impact of credit risk for pension plans engaging with CDI
Cashflow-driven investing (CDI) has gained significant traction in recent years as pension plans have successfully de-risked and strengthened their balance sheets over the last decade. Increasing numbers of plans are able to allocate significant proportions (potentially all of their assets) to fixed income like assets so that cashflow income closely matches expected liability payment, thus providing a simpler hedge and reducing the complexity of portfolios. Investment products, strategies and asset classes have developed to facilitate this approach.
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White papers
Is it really a bear market rally?
In the latest instalment of Simply put, where we make macro calls with a multi-asset perspective, we consider market data over the last 100 years to determine whether the current risk-on market move is really a bear market undergoing an episode of rally.
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White papers
Compass - Mind the lag: recession fears flare too fast
Investors expect central banks will tame inflation whatever the cost, even triggering recession if necessary. This may indeed be policymakers’ approach in the short term as they seek to re-establish their credibility. The European Central Bank’s decision to raise rates by 50 bps is a case in point.
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White papers
ECB meeting: larger-than-expected rate hike, with new fragmentation tool outlined
What is your take on the July ECB meeting and what could the next steps be?
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White papers
Midyear Strategic Investment Outlook: What Does the Market Move Mean for Strategic Investors?
Many people say they like to be long-term investors. It’s a laudable ambition, but often the short term gets in the way. Our notes typically focus on the strategic horizon, but when the S&P 500 falls by 20%, 10-year Treasury yields rise by 140 basis points and Bitcoin is down by 60% since the start of 2022, strategic investors need to respond.
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Video
Introducing the Neuberger Berman Next Generation Space Economy Fund
Senior Portfolio Manager Michael Barr introduces the Neuberger Berman Next Generation Space Economy Fund, outlining the focus and investment process adopted by the team managing the fund.
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White papers
Credit Factor Investing with Machine Learning techniques
The most common models to assess asset returns are a linear combination of risk factors. We have employed tree-based machine learning algorithms to capture nonlinearities and detect interaction effects among risk factors in the EUR and USD credit space. We have built a nonlinear credit pricing model and compared it to our baseline linear credit pricing model using error metrics on training and testing sets and during different periods.
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White papers
Disruptive technology – Maintaining course in volatile markets
The high-tech sector has seen a dramatic correction and high market volatility in recent months. We believe it is now appropriate to review the outlook for disruptive tech thematic investing. We are confident in the long-term outlook for this secular growth theme as we see many opportunities to invest in companies that are leading – and benefiting from – digital transformation.
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White papers
Take note: Finding opportunity in mispriced corporate hybrids
In our latest white paper, Robin Usson, senior credit analyst, asks: Is there scope to extract structural alpha from misunderstood extension risk?
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White papers
Want to De-Risk? Look to High Yield
Looking for a tactical way to de-risk your portfolio? You might consider rotating a portion of your equity allocation into high-yield bonds.
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White papers
Market Scenarios and Risks - May 2022
We keep the narratives and the probabilities of our central and alternative scenario unchanged versus last month. However, the war in Ukraine could evolve in several ways (see Ukraine crisis tree) with significant implications on economic and financial markets. The new wave of Covid-19 in China is another source of uncertainty over the short-term.
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White papers
ESG-Labelled Muni Funds: Fact or Fiction?
By their nature, entities that issue in the municipal bond market have substantial positive environmental and social impacts that make them ideal for investors seeking ESG investment opportunities. Municipal asset managers who are aware of this fit are increasingly touting their ESG capabilities; although these claims are often confusing as they conflate ESG credit risks with ESG impacts.
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White papers
Japan Is Back on the Risk Radar
Japan and the extreme moves in its currency are among the most important dynamics in capital markets right now—here’s why we think they should loom much larger in investors’ minds.