All Risk Management articles – Page 5
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White papers
Pensions Watch | Issue 22: What’s been happening and what’s on the horizon in the world of pensions
Given the ever-greater regularity of unanticipated impactful events with equally unpredictable tipping points, we look at the importance to pension scheme fiduciaries of risk management. In particular, we consider the need for both more inventive scenario analysis and stress testing of schemes’ resilience against a multitude of ever-present and emerging risks allied to more nimble governance.
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White papers
Incorporating ESG Risk In Fundamental Market Risk Models
This paper investigates the possible impact of ESG Risk when incorporated into front office driven Fundamental Market Risk Measurement approaches. The main principle is, that ESG risk is implicitly embedded in observable market risk factors, like share prices and credit spreads, and interprets the ESG risk of an equity portfolio as an additional jump component to an ordinary GBM process.
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White papers
The corporate bond is back
We believe that corporate bond yields are close to an inflection point, with the high levels of yields achievable providing a buffer to further yield rises. In short – the corporate bond is back.
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White papers
Market Scenarios and Risks - November 2022
We maintain the probabilities of our scenarios unchanged. Some of the risk factors we identify may occur in our central scenario, which is probably not yet fully priced-in by markets.
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Research Report
Policy changes and emerging risks for companies and investors
Biodiversity is the new climate change, with policymakers attending the COP-15 UN Biodiversity Summit in December expected to seal a ground-breaking agreement to protect nature. This new Paris-style global accord should accelerate efforts to tackle the biodiversity crisis and align finance flows and investment portfolios with nature-positive objectives.
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White papers
Toning down the optimism of backtests
Past performance does not guarantee future returns. This statement is true of any strategy, be it of a systematic or discretionary nature. Systematic strategies seemingly provide a little more comfort in the form of lengthy historical backtests, which indeed never look bad.
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White papers
Market Scenarios and Risks - October 2022
We maintain the content and probabilities of our scenarios. Note that some of the risk factors we identify may occur in our central scenario, which is probably not yet fully priced-in by markets. It would take a combination of risk factors for the downside scenario to materialise. The downside is counterbalanced by an upside scenario, that of a rapid decline in inflation due to an easing of gas prices and/or to the combined tightening of global monetary policies, the impact of which can be underestimated.
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White papers
Accessing CLOs: risk, return and liquidity considerations
Outlines how to access and invest in the CLO market Compares open-end vs. closed-end CLO fund structures and single-manager and multimanager CLO approaches
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White papers
Fast Filtering with Large Option Panels: Implications for Asset Pricing
The cross-section of options holds great promise for identifying return distributions and risk premia, but estimating dynamic option valuation models with latent state variables is challenging when using large option panels.
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White papers
Managing the Risks of a Low-Carbon Portfolio
We recognize that much of the world still runs on fossil fuel. However, we firmly believe investors can construct portfolios that substantially reduce their carbon footprints while retaining exposure to all sectors—including energy.
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White papers
ECB meeting: bold rate hike; watch out for more to come
What is your take on the September ECB meeting and what could the next steps be?
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White papers
Articulating asset allocation across different time horizons
In a previous paper, we addressed the issue of how to set investment objectives. In this paper, we address another key issue in the definition of asset allocation: how to articulate it across different time horizons.
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White papers
The impact of credit risk for pension plans engaging with CDI
Cashflow-driven investing (CDI) has gained significant traction in recent years as pension plans have successfully de-risked and strengthened their balance sheets over the last decade. Increasing numbers of plans are able to allocate significant proportions (potentially all of their assets) to fixed income like assets so that cashflow income closely matches expected liability payment, thus providing a simpler hedge and reducing the complexity of portfolios. Investment products, strategies and asset classes have developed to facilitate this approach.
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White papers
Is it really a bear market rally?
In the latest instalment of Simply put, where we make macro calls with a multi-asset perspective, we consider market data over the last 100 years to determine whether the current risk-on market move is really a bear market undergoing an episode of rally.
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White papers
Compass - Mind the lag: recession fears flare too fast
Investors expect central banks will tame inflation whatever the cost, even triggering recession if necessary. This may indeed be policymakers’ approach in the short term as they seek to re-establish their credibility. The European Central Bank’s decision to raise rates by 50 bps is a case in point.
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White papers
ECB meeting: larger-than-expected rate hike, with new fragmentation tool outlined
What is your take on the July ECB meeting and what could the next steps be?
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White papers
Midyear Strategic Investment Outlook: What Does the Market Move Mean for Strategic Investors?
Many people say they like to be long-term investors. It’s a laudable ambition, but often the short term gets in the way. Our notes typically focus on the strategic horizon, but when the S&P 500 falls by 20%, 10-year Treasury yields rise by 140 basis points and Bitcoin is down by 60% since the start of 2022, strategic investors need to respond.
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Video
Introducing the Neuberger Berman Next Generation Space Economy Fund
Senior Portfolio Manager Michael Barr introduces the Neuberger Berman Next Generation Space Economy Fund, outlining the focus and investment process adopted by the team managing the fund.
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White papers
Credit Factor Investing with Machine Learning techniques
The most common models to assess asset returns are a linear combination of risk factors. We have employed tree-based machine learning algorithms to capture nonlinearities and detect interaction effects among risk factors in the EUR and USD credit space. We have built a nonlinear credit pricing model and compared it to our baseline linear credit pricing model using error metrics on training and testing sets and during different periods.
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White papers
Disruptive technology – Maintaining course in volatile markets
The high-tech sector has seen a dramatic correction and high market volatility in recent months. We believe it is now appropriate to review the outlook for disruptive tech thematic investing. We are confident in the long-term outlook for this secular growth theme as we see many opportunities to invest in companies that are leading – and benefiting from – digital transformation.