Outlooks – Page 98
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White papersImpact investing: Choice precedes fate
The temporary lockdown of half of the world’s population has yielded some remarkable imagery. You may have seen satellite pictures showing a significant reduction in nitrogen dioxide emissions in the atmosphere. Natural environments appear to be enjoying some respite.
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White papersThe coronavirus and our relationship with nature
The coronavirus crisis has highlighted the importance of sustainability-focused risk management and effective stewardship activities. In this series of articles, we will explore the links between infectious diseases, environmental issues and social sustainability, alongside the role of investors and companies. In part one, Sonya Likhtman looks at how the destruction of ecosystems can increase the risk of pandemics.
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White papersRecalibrating the rulebook: 360°, Q2 2020
What is our current view of fixed-income markets? And where do we see the best relative value? In our latest edition of 360°, Andrew ‘Jacko’ Jackson, Head of Fixed Income, and his team of specialist investors considers the areas that have the potential to deliver superior risk-adjusted returns.
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White papersCredit: Industry Insights
As we navigate the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic on the fixed-income market, we have launched a weekly video to highlight the latest industry insights from our credit analysts.
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White papersMarket weekly – Fixed income: Deflation, not inflation, is the main risk now
After a rollercoaster ride in April, senior investment strategist Daniel Morris and Dominick DeAlto, chief investment officer fixed income, discuss what will matter next for developed bond markets.
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White papersThe outlook for eurozone inflation-linked bonds
A V-shape economic recovery in the eurozone looks unlikely, while member states continue their marathon search for a compromise on how to fund the reconstruction. The poor outlook for the economy and inflation, and the ECB’s asset purchases, should keep eurozone government bond yields low and cap the risk premiums on ‘peripheral’ bonds.
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White papersCanary in the Coal Mine
The credit market has lagged while equities have rallied—is it warning investors not to get carried away?
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White papersPrivate Equity Perspectives “Moving from Defense to Offense”
David Stonberg, Global Co-Head of Private Equity Co-Investments, provides an update on the private equity market and discusses deal activity in the Co-Investment space.
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White papersMacroeconomic picture - May 2020
Heading towards a sharp contraction in H1; the H2 recovery is being shaped by the duration of the crisis and the effectiveness of the unprecedented policy response, once the post-containment normalization phase starts. Since the start of April, both hard and soft data have begun to show the impact on the economy. In one month, the crisis has erased almost the number of jobs added since the GFC, and unemployment moved up sharply to 4.4% from 3.5% one month earlier. Sentiment plunged across business lines, especially in service and consumer sectors. Retail sales fell the most since 1992. Inflation moderated in March.
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White papersThematics Views - May 2020
Over the last few weeks, significant stabilisation plans have been announced across advanced economies and in addition true stimulus plans are now under consideration. Recent empirical studies show that fiscal multipliers could be much larger in the current depressed context than during normal times. We believe this could boost the recovery path of corporate dividends going forward, in Europe in particular.
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White papersCross Asset Investment Strategy - May 2020
After closing one of the worst quarters ever for equity markets, Q2 started on a high note, with indices (S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 600) recovering markedly from the bottom hit during the previous month. There is clearly a battle between bull and bear forces taking place. On the bull side, extraordinary policy actions continue to propel market sentiment (signals of virus-peaking in Europe and hopes of sooner-than-expected re-opening). On the bear side, deteriorating fundamentals from the earnings season and the sustainability of the mounting debt pile will be key risks. The tug of war between sentiment and fundamentals is just the first in a long list of battles in course.
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White papersContraction > recovery > late cycle: a cycle round trip in three years
The pandemic outbreak altered the cycle of financial regimes we had in mind at the end of 2019, with consequences extending over the medium term: after a sharp contraction in 2020, 2021 will see a “recovery” in the growth and profit cycle with a rebound in risky assets while in 2022, we expect a normalization towards a late cycle.
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White papersMarkets Scenarios & Risks - May 2020
The potential easing of lockdown measures bring some light at the end of the tunnel. This is particularly the case in Europe where several countries are opening back shops, manufacturing capabilities or services. Data show that the worse is probably over in Italy and France for instance, but in the US, many states such as New York remain in an acute phase of the outbreak. Moreover, emerging countries are still at the beginning of the pandemic. Although it is too early to draw a conclusion, the low level of death toll registered so far in Africa gives hope for a more benign impact than feared. On one hand, these countries’ infrastructures will make the disease mo
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White papersThree Reasons to Consider a Long-Term Allocation to Small-Caps
The volatility driven by COVID-19 and the fall in oil prices has created much uncertainty—but it has also provided a potential opportunity to make long-term investments at attractive prices.
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White papersEquities: Finding Long-term Growth Amid Current Volatility
Barings’ Global Head of Equities, Dr. Ghadir Cooper, discusses the impacts of COVID-19, the opportunity for companies capitalizing on structural growth trends from technology to demographics, and the integral role of ESG in fundamental analysis.
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White papersASEAN: Where Positive Demographics Meet Supportive Secular Trends
Recent market volatility has created what we view as an attractive opportunity in ASEAN equities—particularly to tap into selective structural growth stories at compelling valuations.
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White papersTransform a major trend into an investment opportunity
The ageing of the world’s population phenomenon is a megatrend not called into question by the Covid-19 crisis.
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White papersInvesting today for a better tomorrow - Euro Green & Sustainable Bond
Green business is good business. Global green bond issuance climbed by nearly 50% last year (Climate Bond Initiative, 2020) and it is set to continue its growth as investors’ demand for more sustainable investments with a real impact on society is increasing.
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White papersInvestment View - Sudden stop, permanent scars
Six months ago our quarterly ‘Investment Views’ (Graph 1) lamented about the spread of the negative yield disease. In 2020 a far more dangerous and lethal epidemic has hit society, the economy and financial markets: the coronavirus. As we go to press, more than 1.2 million cases have been recorded globally (a number likely grossly under-estimated, given the under-testing), for a death toll of 65k.
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White papersA Shocking (But Complicated) Employment Report Next Friday
Unemployment will clearly skyrocket, yet the April Employment Report next Friday won’t tell the full story, and the impacts will differ by state and industry.
