Outlooks – Page 103
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White papersA New Cold War?
U.S.-China relations have been tested over the course of the pandemic. There are rising concerns that a potential decoupling of the two countries could usher in a new cold war, which may bring negative impacts to the overall global economy. How might this affect China?
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White papersSDG Engagement Equity commentary: Huhtamaki
The SDG Engagement Equity strategy focuses on attractive companies with the potential – through engagement aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) – to generate outcomes that benefit people, the planet and investors. Here we demonstrate how we are engaging with current holding Huhtamaki to create positive impacts on society.
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White papersHow to protect an equity portfolio with an overlay strategy in a market downturn
Dynamic risk management strategies (risk overlays) can be useful for investors. They are a means of reconciling their two main objectives: capturing the risk premia of risky assets to meet their long-term strategic goals, while still meeting short-term objectives such as limits on drawdowns or requirements for regulatory capital.[1]
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White papersAssessing Climate Risk in Portfolios: Expert Roundtable
With climate change, portfolio managers face a new type of variable with diverse effects on economies, industries and companies. AB investors and experts from Columbia University and Willis Towers Watson weigh in on how to address climate change in the investment process.
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White papersA Moment of Solidarity for Europe
There is still much work to do, but the Franco-German-led EU Recovery Fund is potentially a very big deal for Europe.
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White papersPast Performance is Not a Guarantee of Future Results
When the world is changing so rapidly and profoundly, how can we trust the underlying data used in our investment models?
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White papersWhy June May Be The Most Important Month Of The Year
We’ll have a substantially better picture of how quickly global demand may recover.
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White papersTrajectory Monitoring in Portfolio Management and Issuer Intentionality Scoring
2°C alignment has become a major issue for climate-aware portfolio management. There are sophisticated initiatives aiming to predict corporate emission intensities from 2030 up to 2100.
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White papersMay Macro Dashboard
While supply is coming back, the demand recovery remains unclear. The damage in Europe is showing up larger than expected a month ago, but high frequency data showed some signs of improvement in May. China’s economy is on the road to recovery, though the path differs by sector.
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White papersCoronavirus – Weekly update – 27 May 2020
Exits from lockdown proceed with no major upsets / Stock markets remain cautiously positive / For now the ‘wall of money’ from central banks has quashed volatility.
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White papersIn the wake of first-quarter reporting season, the consensus is probably still too optimistic
At -12% for the S&P 500 in the US and -35% for the Stoxx 600 in Europe, first-quarter results were hit hard by the pandemic, even though it had hardly begun by the end of the quarter. It is therefore a safe bet that results will be even worse in the second quarter but also that they will bottom out for the year. Even so, the consensus still looks far off the mark for both second-quarter results and for 2020-2021. Consequently, the positive impact from reopening the economy already appears to be priced in by far.
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White papersMarkets scenarios & risks – June 2020
We maintain the overall pandemic narrative confirming the probabilities, assigned to the base and alternative scenarios.
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White papersMacroeconomic picture – June 2020
The coronavirus crisis has pushed the U.S. economy into a sharp downturn, with severe disruptions of businesses and mass layoffs. Unemployment has surged into double-digit territory (14.7%); confidence on both the consumer and business sides has plummeted; and consumer inflation has started to reflect the consequences of the lockdowns, with headline CPI falling to 0.3% YoY (1.5% prior). The timing and profile of the recovery are still highly uncertain, but we expect GDP to contract between 4.5% and 6.5% YoY, with inflation remaining significantly subdued, with significant risks of moving into negative territory during the year
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White papersThematics Views – June 2020
As part of their toolkit to support the economic recovery during the Covid-19 crisis, central banks could implement yield-curve control. Although appealing, the implementation and exit risks of such a policy counterbalance the benefits, particularly in the Eurozone. Moreover, the impact on financial markets could be significant since chained risk-free assets could temporarily leave risky assets unsettled.
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White papersIndia in 2020: Active Perspectives on India’s Evolution
In India 2020: A Vision for the New Millennium, A.P.J. Abdul Kalam and Y.S. Rajan detailed how India could become a developed country and one of the world’s four largest economies by 2020. Here, our team shares their thoughts about India’s potential.
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White papersWhy Have Chinese Stocks Held Up So Well?
China’s stock markets have been remarkably resilient. As the world’s second-largest economy emerged first from the virus-induced shock, corporate earnings downgrades were relatively contained while government stimulus was preserved for future use.
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White papersWhy a systematic fundamental analysis is key for Global Equities
As countries around the world plot their way tentatively through the coronavirus pandemic, we ask our Global Equities team: has their investment philosophy changed during the current crisis? And, when the dust settles, will sustainability be of greater importance to investors?
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White papersSecuritised credit: Where we’re going, there are no roads (part one)
Though we’ve seen global financial crises before, this one certainly feels different. Even the flux capacitor might not bring us back to where we were in January.
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White papersThe day after #4 - Inequality in the context of the Covid-19 crisis
For several years now we have argued that the social theme, and in particular the issue of social inequality, was becoming a major issue for various global economies and for investors, both institutional and retail.
