Outlooks – Page 107
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The outlook for eurozone inflation-linked bonds
A V-shape economic recovery in the eurozone looks unlikely, while member states continue their marathon search for a compromise on how to fund the reconstruction. The poor outlook for the economy and inflation, and the ECB’s asset purchases, should keep eurozone government bond yields low and cap the risk premiums on ‘peripheral’ bonds.
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Canary in the Coal Mine
The credit market has lagged while equities have rallied—is it warning investors not to get carried away?
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Factor Performance During Times of Crisis Including COVID-19
Why diversifying across well-defined factors is likely to be key in extreme volatility.
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COVID-19: Will credit markets remain open for business?
While concerns around credit market liquidity have been rising since the global financial crisis, the COVID-19 sell-off has highlighted how fragile liquidity can be during periods of real stress. Colin Purdie discusses the short- and long-term implications for investment grade and high yield credit globally.
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Private Equity Perspectives “Moving from Defense to Offense”
David Stonberg, Global Co-Head of Private Equity Co-Investments, provides an update on the private equity market and discusses deal activity in the Co-Investment space.
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Macroeconomic picture - May 2020
Heading towards a sharp contraction in H1; the H2 recovery is being shaped by the duration of the crisis and the effectiveness of the unprecedented policy response, once the post-containment normalization phase starts. Since the start of April, both hard and soft data have begun to show the impact on the economy. In one month, the crisis has erased almost the number of jobs added since the GFC, and unemployment moved up sharply to 4.4% from 3.5% one month earlier. Sentiment plunged across business lines, especially in service and consumer sectors. Retail sales fell the most since 1992. Inflation moderated in March.
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Thematics Views - May 2020
Over the last few weeks, significant stabilisation plans have been announced across advanced economies and in addition true stimulus plans are now under consideration. Recent empirical studies show that fiscal multipliers could be much larger in the current depressed context than during normal times. We believe this could boost the recovery path of corporate dividends going forward, in Europe in particular.
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Cross Asset Investment Strategy - May 2020
After closing one of the worst quarters ever for equity markets, Q2 started on a high note, with indices (S&P 500 and Euro Stoxx 600) recovering markedly from the bottom hit during the previous month. There is clearly a battle between bull and bear forces taking place. On the bull side, extraordinary policy actions continue to propel market sentiment (signals of virus-peaking in Europe and hopes of sooner-than-expected re-opening). On the bear side, deteriorating fundamentals from the earnings season and the sustainability of the mounting debt pile will be key risks. The tug of war between sentiment and fundamentals is just the first in a long list of battles in course.
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Contraction > recovery > late cycle: a cycle round trip in three years
The pandemic outbreak altered the cycle of financial regimes we had in mind at the end of 2019, with consequences extending over the medium term: after a sharp contraction in 2020, 2021 will see a “recovery” in the growth and profit cycle with a rebound in risky assets while in 2022, we expect a normalization towards a late cycle.
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Markets Scenarios & Risks - May 2020
The potential easing of lockdown measures bring some light at the end of the tunnel. This is particularly the case in Europe where several countries are opening back shops, manufacturing capabilities or services. Data show that the worse is probably over in Italy and France for instance, but in the US, many states such as New York remain in an acute phase of the outbreak. Moreover, emerging countries are still at the beginning of the pandemic. Although it is too early to draw a conclusion, the low level of death toll registered so far in Africa gives hope for a more benign impact than feared. On one hand, these countries’ infrastructures will make the disease mo
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Three Reasons to Consider a Long-Term Allocation to Small-Caps
The volatility driven by COVID-19 and the fall in oil prices has created much uncertainty—but it has also provided a potential opportunity to make long-term investments at attractive prices.
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Equities: Finding Long-term Growth Amid Current Volatility
Barings’ Global Head of Equities, Dr. Ghadir Cooper, discusses the impacts of COVID-19, the opportunity for companies capitalizing on structural growth trends from technology to demographics, and the integral role of ESG in fundamental analysis.
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ASEAN: Where Positive Demographics Meet Supportive Secular Trends
Recent market volatility has created what we view as an attractive opportunity in ASEAN equities—particularly to tap into selective structural growth stories at compelling valuations.
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Aviva Investors and Lincoln Pensions DB De-Risking Webcast
DB pension schemes are slowly but surely heading towards their endgame. The uncertain cost of pensions continues to put pressure on sponsor companies, while trustees must adapt to ever-changing regulations and challenges.
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Transform a major trend into an investment opportunity
The ageing of the world’s population phenomenon is a megatrend not called into question by the Covid-19 crisis.
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Investing today for a better tomorrow - Euro Green & Sustainable Bond
Green business is good business. Global green bond issuance climbed by nearly 50% last year (Climate Bond Initiative, 2020) and it is set to continue its growth as investors’ demand for more sustainable investments with a real impact on society is increasing.
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Coronavirus Pandemic Shifts Focus to ESG
The coronavirus pandemic has highlighted the importance of risks that fit within the realm of environmental, social and governance (ESG).
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Investment View - Sudden stop, permanent scars
Six months ago our quarterly ‘Investment Views’ (Graph 1) lamented about the spread of the negative yield disease. In 2020 a far more dangerous and lethal epidemic has hit society, the economy and financial markets: the coronavirus. As we go to press, more than 1.2 million cases have been recorded globally (a number likely grossly under-estimated, given the under-testing), for a death toll of 65k.
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A Shocking (But Complicated) Employment Report Next Friday
Unemployment will clearly skyrocket, yet the April Employment Report next Friday won’t tell the full story, and the impacts will differ by state and industry.
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April Macro Dashboard
Long gone are the tales of a V-shaped recovery as the U.S. economy has fallen rapidly into the steepest recession in recorded history. The European economy is experiencing a very sharp contraction as well. There are signs of hope as China’s economy appears to be stabilizing.