Outlooks – Page 58
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Seven Predictions Amid the Rising Unpredictability
As the Ukraine War spirals toward broader geopolitical conflict, some elements of the outlook are already coming into view.
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Russia-Ukraine: a lot of bad news already priced in, but the outlook is deteriorating
The second week of conflict in the Ukraine was marked by additional market volatility. Equities are down across the board. The demand for safe-haven assets temporarily pushed the 10-year Treasury down to 1.7% before it retraced to 1.9% amid rising inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, gold has remained well supported, briefly moving above $2000/ounce.
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Months When Decades Happen
Europe enters this dangerous period on solid footing. Unemployment is at record lows. Wage growth remains subdued. Russia’s war in Ukraine adds a strong inflation headwind to the ongoing expansion.
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Russia/Ukraine Conflict: Market Outlook
As the tragic crisis in Ukraine continues to unfold, Martin Currie offers our viewpoint on the potential market impacts, both near and longer-term.
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Quick Thoughts: Should We Fear Stagflation?
It is little surprise that the word “stagflation” is trending as the world grapples with the possibility of both slower economic growth and higher inflation.
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Is Brazil Compellingly Out of Sync?
The Russia-Ukraine war has led to a surge in commodity prices, which means Brazil, a key commodity exporter, stands to benefit. Here, Dina Ting, Head of Global Index Portfolio Management, Franklin Templeton Exchange-Traded Funds, explores the outlook for Brazilian equities in light of recent events.
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ETF Observations on Russia
Investors are reminded within the current environment to take a broad perspective across a variety of asset classes and geographies and to weigh short-term developments against longer-term factors.
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Quick Thoughts: The Implications on Equities of the War in Ukraine
We hosted a webinar to discuss equity investing against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine.
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The Fog of War Clouds Economic Outlooks
The war in Ukraine continues to dominate market moves, leading to volatility in risk assets, and the safe haven bid is still in focus amid a stronger U.S. dollar and higher precious metal prices. Commodities are soaring, with BBG Commodity Index on track for the biggest gain since 1960.
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Quick Thoughts: Ukraine, Russia, and the Path Forward
Kim Catechis, Investment Strategist for the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute, recently shared his thoughts around the situation in Ukraine and the implications for the global economy and capital markets.
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Positioning Liquid Credit Portfolios For Rising Rates & Inflation
Martin Horne, Head of Global Public Fixed Income, discusses how to mitigate the risk of rising rates and inflation, touching on the potential benefits of floating rate assets and short-duration strategies.
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Solvency II review to strengthen insurance sector
Now awaiting passage into law is a major review of the 2016 Solvency II regulation governing the solvency capital requirements (SCR) of European insurers. The amendments proposed by the European Commission (EC) and the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) are intended to ensure the insurance sector remains fully resilient to future market shocks.
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Market Scenarios and Risks - March 2022
We amend the narrative of our scenario to take into account the consequences of the war in Ukraine. We increase the probability of our downside scenario to 30% (from 15%) to reflect the rising risk of stagflation.
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Keeping up With Demand
In this piece from Infrastructure Investor, Pieter Welman talks about institutional investors’ growing interest in infrastructure debt and touches on how the market has evolved over the past decade.
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Macroeconomic Picture - March 2022
The Russia/Ukraine crisis is pushing the regime shift one step further with more severe economic implications for some regions, in this case Europe because of its energy dependence and geographic proximity.
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Gauging the impact of the Russia/Ukraine conflict on EM debt
The events that are unfolding in Ukraine are deeply upsetting and one cannot help but be affected by what we are reading and seeing in the news. Investing in the midst of a conflict can be difficult and bring out heightened emotions. In the context of these heightened emotions, it is helpful to stand back and assess the situation.
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MENA Equities: Five Key Themes and Reasons for Optimism
The global economy is currently facing headwinds because of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but there are several reasons to be optimistic about the outlook for equities in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.
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Russia attacks Ukraine: Markets will have to readjust to the shock
Market reaction: The worst-case scenario of a full blown attack to Ukraine has materialised. It’s risk-off on Russian assets; global risk assets are under severe pressure.
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Why banks get butterflies when fintechs have wings
Fiorino begins a short series of articles examining how mainstream banks and insurers are faring as a flurry of start-up enterprises disturb the competitive atmosphere…
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‘Greenflation’ – Navigating the climate policy, oil price and inflation nexus
Given the relationship between climate policies, oil prices and inflation and the difficulties in managing inflation through interest rate policy, it is worth taking a closer look at the dynamics involved. How might climate policies, oil prices and inflation evolve given the outlook for oil? To what extent are oil prices and consumer price inflation actually linked?