The Russia-Ukraine war has added yet more complexity to a macroeconomic backdrop that was already troubled by mounting inflation and soaring energy and commodity prices. Major central banks now face an unenviable task. For possibly the first time since the 1980s, they are now tightening policy to push inflation firmly down, rather than merely keeping it under control. But how far can they tighten without threatening financial instability? Are central banks risking a policy error? Is stagflation a risk?

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